I propose to take Questions Nos. 11 and 99 together. The projected rate of increase in the consumer price index in 1992, as indicated at the time of the budget, is 3¾ per cent. The most recent available consumer price inflation figures are those for mid-February 1992. These showed a quarterly increase of 0.8 per cent, with a year-on-year rise of 3.7 per cent in the consumer price index. It is likely that the mid-May quarter of 1992 will see an increase in the year-on-year rate, partly due to measures announced in the budget. In the second half of the year, however, it is expected that the rate will begin to fall. While there should be no complacency about a prospective rate of inflation to 3¾ per cent for the year as a whole, at this level Irish inflation would remain comfortably below the EC average.
As to the other matters raised, I assume that the Deputies are concerned with factors which may have contributed to the increase in the year-on-year rate of inflation from 2.6 per cent at mid-February 1991 to 3.7 per cent at mid-February 1992. Import price trends are one explanatory factor. Import prices, which fell during 1990, rose somewhat during 1991. In addition, as indicated by the constant tax price index, published by the CSO, tax measures may have accounted for about one-quarter of the acceleration. Food prices, which fell marginally during 1990, also rose during 1991. However, the rate of price increase in certain other elements of consumption also accelerated, to a degree not clearly explained by either import price trends or taxation measures. In particular, the rate of price increase for ‘Services and Related Expenditure' accelerated from 4.1 per cent in the year to mid-February 1991 to 5.0 per cent in the year to mid-February last.