Vol. 426 No. 7
3 Mr. Molloy asked the Minister for Agriculture, Food and Forestry the national cereal area determined by the 1991 census of agricultural production, and if this figure will be used to determine the national base area, which is critical to deciding the amount of set-aside for cereals crops under EC rules in future years.
196 Mr. Yates asked the Minister for Agriculture, Food and Forestry the statistical base which will be used to establish Ireland's national cereal quota in terms of acreage; and if he has satisfied himself that this accurately reflects current production levels.
I propose to take Questions Nos. 3 and 196 together.
The national base area, for the purpose of compensatory payments under the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy, is the average of the areas under cereals, oilseeds, protein crops and the set-aside in 1989, 1990 and 1991. The national cereals area determined by the 1991 census of agriculture, carried out by the CSO, was 301,500 hectares (740,000 acres).
The CSO census was conducted in accordance with the Statistics (Census of Agriculture) Order 1991 (S.I. No. 126 of 1991). The full implications of the census figures for the national base area will not be known until adjusted figures for 1989 and 1990 are submitted by the CSO to EUROSTAT.
Has there been an underestimation of about 30,000 hectares in determining the national base area and, if so, could the Minister tell the House what the cost to Irish farmers of that mistake will be?
In July-August 1992 Ireland, together with other member states, submitted data to the Commission concerning base areas. This data, as required by regulation, is based on historical information submitted by the CSO to the European Statistics Office. In respect of 1991, the figure included in the base area for cereals was 333,300 hectares. In June 1991 the CSO carried out a full agricultural census for the period since 1980. The preliminary results of this census were published on 18 December 1992. The statistics showed that the base area for cereals was 301,500 hectares, as against 333,300 in the original submission. This represented a drop of 10.5 per cent of the previous estimate for 1991, which was based on the June enumeration sample for that year. I wish to point out that the CSO is obliged to furnish EUROSTAT with the revised figures in respect of the cereals area and it may have to revise the figures submitted for previous years, including 1989 and 1990 which are also used to calculate the base area. The full implications of the census figures for the national base area will not, therefore, be known until the adjusted figures for the three years 1989, 1990 and 1991 are submitted to EUROSTAT.
Would the Minister agree that if this matter is not corrected to Ireland's advantage there will be a huge cost to the farmers involved? Can the Minister give an assurance that he is satisfied at this stage that he can take action to ensure Irish farmers are not to be penalised because of the change in the base area?
This is an extremely serious development. We have lost, overnight, 10.5 per cent of our base area, and this could penalise cereal farmers. I am aware of this possibility and I have been in contact with the cereals section in the Department. We are engaged in discussions with the European Commission about the matter. I will do everything possible to ensure that Irish cereal farmers are not penalised because of what seems to be an error in the figure. No definite decision can be taken until the average for the three years is made known to EUROSTAT.
What alternative measures is the Minister proposing to correct this drastic mistake?
I have asked the CSO to review the calculation in the context of the three years. The CSO has given us figures for 1991 and I have asked it to get the figures — which it is entitled to do under the regulation — for 1989 and 1990 also.
