The conflict in the former Yugoslavia, which is now entering its fourth year, has been a matter of major concern for the Government, the European Union, the United Nations and the wider international community. In recent months there have been a number of positive developments.
In Croatia the ceasefire agreement of last March is holding and life there is returning to normal. Work is continuing within the framework of the international Conference, co-chaired by the European Union and the United Nations, on confidence building measures between the Croatian Government and the Croatian Serb leaders, and on an overall settlement.
In Bosnia the war between Bosnian Croat forces and the Government ended in March with the signature of the Washington Agreements by the Government of Bosnia, the representative of the Bosnian Croats and the President of Croatia. These agreements provided for the establishment of a federation in the territories of the Bosnian Muslim and Croat peoples and for a possible confederal arrangement between this federation and Croatia.
The agreements set out detailed arrangements on human rights, the division of governmental responsibilities, the structure of the federation, the operation of the judiciary and the conduct of the federation's international relations. Decisions on the constitutional status of Serb areas were left to negotiations in the international conference.
It was clear, however, that the agreements could not fully come into effect while the key question of territorial delimitation remained unresolved. When the parties themselves were unable to reach agreement on this the Contact Group — consisting of the UN, the EU, the US and Russia — made proposals on 6 July for the allocation of territory between the Croat-Muslim Federation and the Bosnian Serbs. This proposal was based on the following principls: the territorial division agreed earlier by all three parties — 51 per cent for the Croat and Muslim communities and 49 per cent for the Bosnian Serbs; the preservation of Bosnia as a single Union within its internationally recognised borders; the continuation of Bosnia's international legal personality; and the right of refugees and displaced persons to return freely to their homes of origin.
The Contact Group's proposal has been approved by the UN Security Council. It has been accepted by the Bosnian Muslims and Croats, but has been rejected by the Bosnian Serbs. The major challenge now is to bring about acceptance of the plan by the Bosnian Serbs and the international community has taken several steps to this end.
The UN Security Council has recently imposed a comprehensive package of measures on the Bosnian Serbs to isolate them politically and economically.
In addition the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia which itself has accepted the plan has decided to end its political and military support for the Bosnian Serbs. Belgrade has closed its border with the Bosnian Serb territories and has agreed that the closure can be monitored by a mission under the auspices of the international conference. Ireland is contributing four personnel to this mission. In recognition of this significant change of position by the authorities in Belgrade the UN Security Council has decided to suspend some of the sanctions of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.
A successful outcome to the peace process in Bosnia — vital to an overall settlement in former Yugoslavia — is by no means assured, but the pressure is mounting on the Bosnian Serbs to accept the Contact Group's plan. This would enable the detailed constitutional issues to be addressed in earnest, with some prospect of success, and would give new impetus to the search for an overall settlement in former Yugoslavia.