Mary Harney
Ceist:5 Miss Harney asked the Taoiseach his view on the need for the Central Statistics Office to devise a scheme which will accurately present employment levels on a monthly basis. [7667/96]
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Monthly Unemployment Figures.
The only source of comprehensive information on employment and unemployment is the Labour Force Survey which covers annually a sample of about 45,000 households.
Some direct sectoral surveys of businesses and other employers are conducted more frequently. For example, the CSO publishes quarterly series on employment in the industrial, financial and public sectors, as well as a monthly index of employment trends in building and construction.
However, none of these sources provides the economy-wide picture of the current employment situation which the Labour Force Survey does.
Following consultation with the positive feedback from over 100 users of statistics during 1995, the CSO has examined the feasibility and cost of conducting a quarterly household survey covering labour force and other social topics, to replace the existing annual Labour Force Survey. The results of this examination are being given careful consideration at present.
I would not consider a monthly Labour Force Survey to be a realistic option as the costs would be prohibitive.
Does the Minister of State accept it is unsatisfactory that the most recent detailed Labour Force Survey statistics published, on a mix of full-time and part-time jobs, relate to April 1994? Does he accept that employment policy cannot be planned in such a statistical vacuum?
The Central Statistics Office is examining detailed submissions from more than 100 companies, in addition to which there is strong evidence to support the contention that a quarterly Labour Force Survey is now required; it appears to be the trend within the European Union and more and more member states are moving in that direction. The matter is being considered by Government whose decision will be conveyed in due course, but all available evidence points to the fact that from the point of view of employment, unemployment statistics and accuracy we should move in the direction of quarterly Labour Force Surveys.
While accepting that the Minister of State does not advocate monthly surveys, I am concerned about the delay in publishing the details of surveys once conducted. Would he accept it is unsatisfactory that it takes two years from the time a survey is conducted to have the relevant details published?
As the Deputy will know from her term in office as a Minister of State, these are complex figures which must be collated, cross-checked and finally published. We do our best to furnish interim reports on the relevant data and publish the final figures once available. I can assure her that everything possible is being done to expedite their publication. Indeed, the Government is as anxious as anybody else to have the relevant figures as soon as possible to enable it make general economic forecasts and evaluate the current overall position at any given time.
How frequently are long-term unemployment figures produced? Does the Minister of State agree that the absence of regular updated numbers of long-term unemployed detracts from the degree of attention all political parties should devote to this matter?
The figures on the long-term unemployed are available from the annual Labour Force Survey. We do our best to publish preliminary figures and, in due course, the final ones. In regard to the focus on the figures, it is desirable that they be made available more frequently to enable us evaluate the general economic position. All of the indications are that, on the general jobs front, the last Labour Force Survey showed a dramatic increase in the numbers at work — 49,000 — compared with the preceding 12 months during which period the Deputy was in office for approximately six months. Preliminary indications suggest that the relevant figures for the current 12 months period will be equally gratifying in terms of the general positive economic outlook. As the Deputy will be aware, the Labour Force Survey is conducted over 45,000 households in the months of April and May and is at present being compiled for the current year. As soon as we have the figures available for last year they will be brought to Members' attention.
My question related to long-term unemployment. While not castigating any Government, does the Minister of State agree that we can all conveniently forget the numbers of long-term unemployed through not receiving regular updated figures which, once published, lead to an annual brouhaha? Will he seriously consider publishing at least a quarterly report on the long-term unemployed?
Cost would be an inhibiting factor in the Government deciding to adopt the proposal to conduct quarterly Labour Force Surveys. Deputy O'Rourke having been a Minister, as was the Leader of the Fianna Fáil Party, Deputy Bertie Ahern, will remember that in 1991 a very positive recommendation was advanced, on foot of the report of a task force, for the publication of a quarterly Labour Force Survey.
For the information of the House I will give the costs involved. Total initial development costs would be in the region of £400,000. The main cost factor would be the acquisition of approximately 160 lap-top computers and peripherals such as modems, printers and so on costing an estimated £250,000. There would also be the need for considerable statistical development work in addition to the development of computer processing and analysis systems to address the key issues of timeliness and data quality. The total field cost of the current annual survey was just over £1 million in 1995. It comprised field staff pay of £830,000, travel and subsistence costs of £108,000 and other miscellaneous costs amounting to £74,000. The corresponding estimated field costs of a continuous quarterly survey are £2.2 million for pay, £460,000 for travel and subsistence and £300,000 for other expenses such as rent of local offices, telephone, electricity charges and so on, giving a total field cost of £2,960,000. Thus, the additional field cost of continuous quarterly surveys would be just in excess of £1.9 million per annum, the total additional cost being £2.1 million. With regard to staff requirements, the new survey would involve 125 interviewers and approximately 16 supervisors on a continuous basis compared with present staffing levels of 430 interviewers and 48 supervisors employed on a once-off basis for the specific purpose of compiling the annual Labour Force Survey.