Vol. 516 No. 5
164 Mr. Durkan asked the Minister for Foreign Affairs the extent, if any, to which he has monitored events in Montenegro through the international community; if the situation is stabilising in accordance with the aspirations of the people there; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [8616/00]
The Government is concerned at the deteriorating political and economic situation in Montenegro and the risk that this poses to regional stability. As a constituent member state of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Montenegro has suffered domination by its much larger partner, Serbia, and has been the victim of the policies of the Milosevic regime. The international community, which has been supportive of Montenegro in its resistance to Belgrade, is following the situation there closely. Both the OSCE and the European Community Monitoring Mission are represented in Montenegro and reports are received regularly enabling my Department to monitor events there. Montenegro is regularly discussed in the EU General Affairs Council.
President Djukanovic won the presidential elections in February 1998 on a platform of political and economic reform. His opponent was the former president, and current FRY Prime Minister, Momir Bulatovic, who was supported by FRY President Milosevic. His victory was subsequently confirmed at parliamentary elections held in May 1998.
An important element of President Djukanovic's policy is the renegotiation of the constitution of the FRY to give the constituent republics greater political freedom. Negotiations with Belgrade never seriously got off the ground. Since the election of the Djukanovic government Montenegro has been subject to a campaign of destabilisation inspired from Belgrade. While a serious crisis has so far been avoided the political and security situation in the country remains tense. Partly because of this, pro-independence sentiment in Montenegro has been steadily growing and there is pressure on the government to declare Montenegro an independent country, a move neither Djukanovic himself nor the international community want to see. The fear is that the significant Serbian community in Montenegro, supported by Milosevic, would be likely to resist by violent means a declaration of independence by Montenegro setting the scene for another Balkan civil war.
The economy of Montenegro suffers from the political environment, although parts of the institutional and legal framework, within which economic activity takes place, have improved under Djukanovic, for example, legalisation of the deutschmark as a parallel currency with the debased FRY dinar and customs procedures at the boundary with Serbia. Serbia is the natural hinterland of a relatively small Montenegro and economic links with Serbia are so close that survival without them would be difficult. The links that the Djukanovic Government has tried to develop with Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina cannot as yet supplant Serbia as the major market for the Montenegrin economy. Separation in the form of independence, from an economic point of view, would create a new weak, dependent, fragile and politically unstable area, which would not support the goal of stability either in Montenegro or in the region as a whole.
