Vol. 529 No. 1
287 Mr. Lawlor asked the Minister for Public Enterprise if she will consult with Met Éireann to ascertain if their weather forecast for Ireland up to March 2001 conforms with that issued for Britain by its Meteorological Office suggesting that a weather phenomenon known as North Sea oscillation will bring a series of storms and flooding during the period in question; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [1036/01]
Met Éireann does not issue forecasts beyond the medium range, i.e. up to seven days ahead at the most. While experimental work on the development of monthly and seasonal forecasts is being carried out at institutes such as the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast, of which Ireland is a member, Met Éireann does not regard such forecasts as sufficiently reliable to be of value to the public.
Met Éireann has consulted with the British Met Office and has ascertained that no forecast corresponding to that indicated in the question was issued by that office. The term "North Atlantic oscillation" refers to variations in the pattern of atmospheric pressure over the North Atlantic and adjacent areas which occur over periods of weeks and months. These variations influence Irish weather. However, the future behaviour of the North Atlantic oscillation cannot be predicted with any degree of reliability.
From the evidence available to it at present, Met Éireann has no basis for predicting that the probability of storms and flooding up to the end of March 2001 is any higher than normal.
