Dáil Éireann díospóireacht -
Thursday, 22 Feb 2001

Vol. 531 No. 2

Written Answers. - EU Dependency Ratios.

Brendan Howlin

Ceist:

62 Mr. Howlin asked the Tánaiste and Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment if the European Union has made projections with regard to the evolution of the Union's dependency ratios over the next 20, 30 and 40 years, in the absence of net immigration; and if it has made any recent studies or projections of the impact on employment, growth and pensions over the same periods, of different levels of immigration, including zero net immigration. [5292/01]

Tánaiste and Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment (Ms Harney)

In November 2000, the Economic Policy Committee of the European Union produced a study on population ageing and its implications for pensions policy. This study included all member states and contained demographic projections based on a range of assumptions on fertility rates and net immigration. This led to projections of future economic growth and likely changes in the cost of public-funded pensions as a percentage of national income arising from projected increases in the population aged 65 and over.

The assumptions on net immigration used in the study for each member state are set out in the following table. In the case of Ireland it was projected that net immigration would be 17,500 in 2000 before falling to 10,000 by 2005. Thereafter it is assumed that net immigration to Ireland is maintained at 5,000 persons per annum.

Annual Net Migration Flow (Thousands of persons)

	2000	2010	2020	2030	2040	2050
BE	10,204	15,000	15,000	15,000	15,000	15,000
DK	11,000	10,000	10,000	10,000	10,000	10,000
DE	300,000	200,000	200,000	200,000	200,000	200,000
GR	21,620	25,000	25,000	25,000	25,000	25,000
ES	31,054	60,000	60,000	60,000	60,000	60,000
FR	50,094	50,000	50,000	50,000	50,000	50,000
IE	17,477	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000
IT	50,000	80,000	80,000	80,000	80,000	80,000
LU	3,072	2,000	2,000	2,000	2,000	2,000
NL	33,390	35,000	35,000	35,000	35,000	35,000
AT	10,000	20,000	20,000	20,000	20,000	20,000
PT	12,131	25,000	25,000	25,000	25,000	25,000
FI	5,604	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000
SE	15,165	20,000	20,000	20,000	20,000	20,000
UK	90,000	70,000	70,000	70,000	70,000	70,000

Source: Economic Policy Committee of the EU.

Given these assumptions dependency ratios for member states were estimated. These are defined as the population aged over 65 and under 19 as a proportion of the working age population. A full set of these results is included in the study which I am sending to the Deputy. Ireland's dependency ratio according to this study is estimated at 72.5% in 2001, rising to 84.8% by the end of the projections period. This compares with a rate of 89.5% for the EU-15 by 2050.

The study did not test the sensitivity of the results to different immigration assumptions, beyond that in the table. Consequently, estimates are not available in the EU study for the dependency ratio – or indeed the impact on employment, economic growth or pensions costs – assuming that net immigration is zero over the projections period.