Brendan Howlin
Ceist:83 Mr. Howlin asked the Taoiseach the trends which are expected in Ireland's dependency ratio over the next 20, 30 and 40 years, in the absence of net immigration. [5291/01]
Written Answers. - Dependency Ratios.
The information requested by the Deputy is contained in the following table:
Actual and projected dependency ratios
|
F1 |
Young |
Old |
Total |
F2 |
Young |
Old |
Total |
F3 |
Young |
Old |
Total |
|
|
Percentage |
||||||||||||
|
1996 |
36.5 |
17.6 |
54.1 |
36.5 |
17.6 |
54.1 |
36.5 |
17.6 |
54.1 |
|||
|
2021 |
31.8 |
23.8 |
55.6 |
28.4 |
24.0 |
52.4 |
24.9 |
24.1 |
49.0 |
|||
|
2031 |
28.5 |
29.8 |
58.4 |
25.7 |
30.8 |
56.5 |
22.6 |
31.7 |
54.3 |
|||
|
2041 |
29.5 |
36.9 |
66.4 |
26.0 |
39.1 |
65.2 |
22.6 |
41.5 |
64.1 |
Notes
1.The young dependency ratio is defined as the population aged 0-14 years as a percentage of the population aged 15-64 years.
2.The old dependency ratio is defined as the population aged 65 years and over as a percentage of the population aged 15-64 years.
3.The total dependency ratio is the sum of the young and the old dependency ratios.
4.The fertility assumptions are as follows:
–F1: Total fertility rate to increase from its 1998 level to 2.0 by 2001, and remain constant thereafter.
–F2: Total fertility rate to remain constant at its 1998 level to 2001, decrease to 1.75 by 2011 and remain constant thereafter.
–F3: Total fertility rate to remain constant at its 1998 level to 2001, decrease to 1.5 by 2011 and remain constant thereafter.
5.The absence of net immigration is taken as 20,000 immigrants and 20,000 emigrants annually from 2001.