Eamon Gilmore
Ceist:55 Mr. Gilmore asked the Minister for Finance his Department's assessment of the implications of the foot and mouth crisis for economic growth; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [9735/01]
Written Answers. - Foot and Mouth Disease.
Bernard J. Durkan
Ceist:211 Mr. Durkan asked the Minister for Finance if he has revised any of his economic projections arising from the outbreak of foot and mouth disease; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [10039/01]
I propose to take Questions Nos. 55 and 211 together.
As Deputies might expect, any attempt to predict the impact of foot and mouth disease on the economic and budgetary outlook is highly conjectural. This is because the future development of the disease is itself unpredictable. If there were a significant outbreak, the main effects would be losses due to the culling of animals, losses due to restrictions on sales in export markets and losses to the tourism sector. The main sectors at risk are primary agriculture and the agri-business and tourism sectors.
Obviously, if the outbreak remains relatively limited in extent and duration then the economic and budgetary impact would not be very significant. However, if foot and mouth disease were to spread to reach the kind of level currently experienced in the United Kingdom then this would have significant economic and budgetary implications. Commentators have estimated that, in the event of a serious outbreak, economic growth could fall by up to 1.5% this year. I would not disagree with these estimates as reasonable orders of magnitude. If the impact was of this order the budgetary outlook would also be affected.
This Government is making every effort to minimise the risk of the disease spreading. I would like to take this opportunity to thank the public for their co-operation in this national effort and to ask them for their continued patience in our campaign to keep foot and mouth disease from spreading any further.