The constitutional balance struck in the Good Friday Agreement is a careful and sensitive one. In enshrining the principle of consent, and in recognising it is the current wish of a majority of people in Northern Ireland to remain a part of the United Kingdom, the Agreement also puts in place a mechanism through which, when the time is right, support for a united Ireland can be measured and through which effect can be given to any resulting vote in favour of change.
As the Deputy is aware, Mr. David Trimble has recently proposed that a poll on the constitutional question should be held at an early date. In doing so, he has suggested that it might be timed to coincide with the Assembly elections due to be held on 1 May 2003.
While the Agreement enables the Secretary of State to direct the holding of a such a poll, it leaves him with discretion as to its timing. Specifically, it states that he shall use his power "if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a United Ireland". I do not believe such an outcome is likely at present. Furthermore, I share fully the concern, as expressed by the Taoiseach, that a decision to hold a poll in the short-term would be a serious distraction from our efforts to achieve implementation in full of the Good Friday Agreement. This must continue to be our highest priority in the period ahead.
The institutions are working effectively and a new beginning in policing is under way. Important steps have been taken on decommissioning and demilitarisation. Progress is being made across the range of issues. However, even the most optimistic observer will acknowledge that it will take us years, not months, to ensure the new arrangements under the Agreement are firmly rooted and can grow and flourish as its authors envisaged.
To continue to advance towards our goal, we need a sustained period of stability and calm. The precipitate holding of a poll would, inevitably, be divisive and polarising at a time when we are trying to consolidate support for the principles the Agreement enshrines – partnership, equality, reconciliation and mutual respect.
If, at some point in the future, it becomes appropriate, within the terms of the Agreement, for a referendum to be held, the question of its timing will be one for the most careful consideration and judgment.