Conor Lenihan
Ceist:196 Mr. C. Lenihan asked the Minister for Finance if he has revised his 2003 inflation forecast in view of falling oil prices and the rising value of the Euro. [13365/03]
Written Answers. - Price Inflation.
On budget day last December, inflation, as measured by annual changes in the consumer price index (CPI), was projected to average 4.8% this year. This forecast was, as always, based on the technical assumption of unchanged interest rates, exchange rates and oil prices as at the time of the forecast. Since then the ECB has twice reduced interest rates. These cuts, together with the appreciation of the euro, the recent decrease in oil prices and the easing of domestic inflationary pressures will have a favourable impact on CPI inflation this year. The annual rate of inflation fell to 4.3% in April. This is in line with the expectation that inflation would moderate over the course of the year.
My Department's revised inflation estimate for 2003 will be published in the Economic Review and Outlook in the summer.