Deputy Eamon Ryan will hear about the final plan in the coming weeks. He should not quote something to me that is not true. It has not happened yet. That is the Deputy's anticipation. I hope he will not be disappointed.
In order for Ireland to effectively and equitably contribute to the EU emissions reduction commitments in line with the Paris agreement and the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2015, a low-carbon development strategy is being developed. My Department is working closely with the Departments of Communications, Climate Action and Environment and Agriculture, Food and the Marine to prepare this national mitigation plan. The responsibility for emissions reduction is collective and Ireland's emissions reduction targets are national rather than sectoral in nature. Transport is one of four key sectors requiring development of sectoral plans, each forming a key component of the overall national plan.
Ireland's first national mitigation plan will set out the challenges to meeting emissions reductions targets and chart a clear and quantified path towards Ireland's long-term objective of transition to a low-carbon and climate resilient economy by 2050. Transport will, of course, have to play a significant role in the national mitigation effort. Transport emissions are projected by the EPA to show growth over the period to 2020, with a 10% to 12% increase on 2015 levels. This reflects forecast strong economic growth and growing transport demand.
In 2015, transport accounted for 27% of Ireland's non-emissions trading scheme emissions. By 2020, under the EPA projected scenario of 10,000 electric vehicles on the road and further development of the biofuel obligation scheme, transport will have increased its projected sectoral share of non-emissions trading scheme greenhouse gas emissions to 29%, rising further to 32% by 2030.
A draft national mitigation plan, including transport proposals, was recently released as part of an extensive public consultation process. I figure that this draft plan is what Deputy Ryan is referring to, and that is fair enough. The public consultation has now come to a close and submissions are currently under review. Alongside this, officials in my Department have been working with key stakeholders such as the Climate Change Advisory Council in developing the proposed final transport elements. The measures under consideration for transport will be wide-ranging and will focus primarily on modal shift to public transport in urban areas, movement to alternatively-fuelled vehicles, and targeted behavioural change.