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Joint Committee on Environment and Climate Action díospóireacht -
Thursday, 30 Nov 2023

Climate Action Plan Review: Discussion (Resumed)

I have received apologies from Deputy Alan Farrell and Senator Lynn Boylan. The purpose of this morning's meeting is to discuss the review of the climate action plan 2023 with the Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine. The Minister and his officials are very welcome.

Before we begin, I will read out a note on privilege. I remind the witnesses of the long-standing parliamentary practice that they should not criticise or make charges against any person or entity by name or in such a way as to make him, her or it identifiable or otherwise engage in speech that might be regarded as damaging to the good name of the person or entity. If their statements are potentially defamatory in respect of an identifiable person or entity, I will direct them to discontinue their remarks. It is imperative they comply with any such direction.

Members are reminded of the long-standing parliamentary practice to the effect that they should not comment on, criticise or make charges against a person outside the Houses or an official either by name or in such a way as to make him or her identifiable. I remind members that they are only allowed to participate in this meeting if they are physically located on the Leinster House campus. In this regard, I ask all members who are joining online or remotely from their offices to confirm, prior to making their contribution, that they are on the grounds of the Leinster House campus.

I invite the Minister to make his opening statement.

I thank the committee for the invitation and the opportunity to discuss the agriculture and land use, land use change and forestry chapter of the Climate Change Advisory Council’s annual review. We have binding commitments to deliver on reducing emissions, through the Paris Agreement and as a member of the EU, and at home through our targets set out in the climate Act. The Government has committed to a whole-of-economy 51% reductions target by 2030 and to reducing by 25% the agriculture sector’s emissions by 2030. In response, Ireland’s Climate Action Plan 2023 sets outs how we can accelerate the actions and measures required to respond to the climate crisis, ensuring climate solutions are at the centre of Ireland’s social and economic development. The climate action plan commits the agriculture sector to strong climate action and I have introduced measures to achieve abatement potential in the agriculture sector.

The Common Agricultural Policy, CAP, strategic plan, with a budget of €9.8 billion, will support farmers to transition to more sustainable practices while also supporting family farm incomes. In addition, we have provided a budget of €1.5 billion for the new agri-environment scheme, ACRES, a fivefold increase in funding for organic farming to €256 million, designed to triple to 7.5% the area of utilised agricultural area for organics, and €260 million to improve the carbon efficiency of the suckler herd through genetic improvement.

I also committed €43 million for a major genotyping programme for Irish cattle in May last. This programme will enhance the environmental sustainability, health and productivity of Irish beef and dairy herds. This is a voluntary genotyping programme, which is available to both beef and dairy herd owners, and will run over a five-year period from 2023 until 2027. It represents a significant step towards genotyping of the national bovine herd. By harnessing genetic data, the programme will empower Irish farmers to make informed breeding decisions, optimise herd management and animal welfare and contribute towards Ireland’s climate action targets.

The implementation of a low methane emitting breeding programme has significant potential to harness the genetic variation for methane emissions that exists within the national herd. This, in turn, will bring about permanent and cumulative reductions in the methane output of future generations of livestock. The results of the research also highlight the potential to breed more environmentally sustainable animals while not having a negative impact on food production. Progress continues to be made in relation to feed additives, which will have a significant positive impact on reducing emissions.

This year has seen the introduction of a national fertiliser database. This will allow my Department to collect a range of information on fertiliser products as well as details of fertiliser economic operators and end users. It will also support farmers in reducing usage and engaging with industry-led sustainability measurement. Nitrogen reduction is also supported through the continuation of aid for low-emission slurry spreading, LESS, equipment. Over 5,100 applications have been paid in full under the LESS measure of the targeted agricultural modernisation scheme 2 since its launch in 2015. From 2023, funding for this measure will increase from 40% to 60% under the recently launched TAMS 3 scheme. Alongside reducing the chemical fertiliser allowances for farmers under nitrates legislation, we are encouraging the adoption of protected urea, which will help to achieve ammonia emissions targets in addition to greenhouse gas emissions reductions. These changes can have benefits for the environment as well as profitability at farm level through a reduction in input costs.

My Department is also supporting the taking and analysis of up to 90,000 samples through phase 2 of the soil sampling and analysis programme over the next 12 to 18 months. Phase 2 will build on data gathered during the initial programme by providing valuable information to farmers to inform decisions that promote the health of their soils.

Nutrient management and soil health are central to achieving economic and environmental sustainability on farms. The Department has allocated €8.8 million to this programme, on top of €2.5 million for a multispecies sward scheme next year. These supports will enable farmers to reduce chemical fertiliser inputs, an economic benefit to the farmer and an environmental benefit to society while maintaining food production.

We know that some livestock farmers will take up diversification options that are provided as part of our climate transformation including areas such as organics, forestry, tillage and the production of renewables. However, given the efficiency gains that continue to be made at farm level, I remain confident that we will continue to reduce emissions in the agrifood sector without reducing our agrifood output through the following measures. On agri-centric biomethane production, it is estimated that up to 160,000 ha of land could be needed for an expanded AD industry of 5.7 TWh, to grow feedstock of 1.3 million tonnes of dry matter assuming 8 tonnes of grass dry matter per hectare. A strategy to guide the development of this sector, co-led by my Department and the Department of the Environment, Climate Action and Communications is being finalised for publication shortly. Indeed, it is being chaired by Mr. Bill Callanan here, an assistant secretary in my Department, in terms of co-ordinating across Departments in the production of that strategy.

With regard to tillage, our target as set out in the climate action plan is to increase the area of land devoted to tillage production to 400,000 ha by 2030, building on an increased area of 6% in 2022 over 2021 to approximately 339,000 ha. This will help build in greater resilience and self-sufficiency in terms of feedstocks and food security. Under the food vision strategy, a group focused on tillage has been meeting under the chairmanship of Mr. Matt Dempsey to propose recommendations on delivering on this ambition.

The new organic farming scheme opened up for applications in autumn of this year and resulted in a doubling of the number of farmers farming organically. In addition, substantial advisory supports have been introduced for organic farming. The Agricultural Consultants Association has received funding from my Department last year and this year to upskill advisers and hold organic farm walks. Teagasc and my Department jointly fund the new growing organics monitor farm programme, which was launched in spring of this year and will run for five years promoting best practice at farm level.

With regard to forestry, carbon sequestration is one of a range of important services being provided by sustainably managed forests. The new forestry programme, which was launched in September 2023, as well as developing, adopting and assessing Coillte's strategic vision, will enable us to capture additional carbon dioxide in forestry, soils and wood products by 2050.

On knowledge transfer, the Teagasc signpost programme, supported by my Department, is working with Irish farmers and a partnership of over 60 partner and supporter organisations across the agrifood sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, reduce ammonia emissions, reduce nutrient losses, enhance biodiversity and improve the efficiency of food production. A cohort of 100 signpost demonstration farms is at the centre of the signpost programme and covers all mainland-based enterprises. The objective of the signpost farms will be to employ the emerging new technologies, such as new breeding programmes and feed additives, and to facilitate the transfer of knowledge from these farms to every farm in Ireland.

With the support of my Department, Teagasc, the Irish Cattle Breeding Federation and Bord Bia are jointly developing a toolkit of tailored farm sustainability support and solutions for Irish farmers called AgNav. From 2024, it is targeted that 10,000 farmers will be utilising the platform each year. The platform will enable analysis at individual farm level of emissions and aid the farmer together with his or her climate adviser to identify the best measures on climate action and sustainability for implementation on his or her farm.

Critical to delivering our 2030 and 2050 commitments are science, innovation and knowledge exchange. Research supported by my Department and other public research funders will provide new tools and technologies to mitigate and offset agricultural emissions, which was profiled earlier this month at our inaugural Science into Action conference. Over the past ten years, my Department has allocated just under €60 million on climate, agri-environment and biodiversity research in agriculture. This is comprised of: €46.5 million on climate, greenhouse gas emission mitigation, adaptation, carbon sequestration, national inventories and climate-related co-benefit research; and €12.9 million on agri-environment for improving water quality and reducing ammonia emissions.

By way of practical example, in 2020 my Department provided funding of over €2 million for the establishment of a national agricultural soil carbon observatory by supplying the scientific infrastructure to measure greenhouse gas fluxes from soils under agricultural management. This technology will enable researchers to assess the impact of reduced management intensity on organic soils under agricultural management which is a key action area under the 2023 climate action plan. This project comprises of 30 flux towers spread across a range of soil types, under different management regimes throughout Ireland. The project is placing Ireland very much at the forefront of EU carbon sequestration research.

My officials are collaborating closely with the Environmental Protection Agency and the relevant technical experts to enhance the projections modelling on the mitigation measures identified in the climate action plan. It is important that this collaboration ensures that gaps in the research are identified and recommendations are made for the improvement of the inventory from a forestry, agriculture and land use and land use change perspective.

I thank the Chathaoirleach and the members who will speak here today. I look forward to engaging in the question and answer session.

I thank the Minister for his opening statement and the detail that is in it. At the outset, I commend the Minister, as I would any Minister who is leading a Department that is going through a significant change in the next few years. Agriculture certainly is one of the principal ones.

Deputy Bruton needs to leave. Does the Deputy want to come in to ask a question now? I can bring the Deputy in later if he wishes.

One question I would like to ask is in terms of the first climate budget. How is the Department on track in terms of being able to deliver the first climate budget? How much of the Department's allocation is used up and is what the Minister has outlined on track to deliver?

Provisional estimates of emissions from agriculture last year were 23.3 MtCO2eq and were 1.2% lower than in 2021. We are seeing progress. Admittedly, it is slow but it is building. We are below our 2018 baseline, which we have to reduce by 25% by 2030. Many of the measures that we are taking though are measures which will build and continuing to deliver and gather momentum over the next number of years.

Based on his expectation from the measures he outlined, which are interesting, can the Minister track the impact in 2024, 2025 and 2026? Will the Minister exhaust his budget early and, therefore, have to have additional measures or how are we stacked up?

Like every other Department, we have ground to make up and we need to see the measures that we are adopting help to achieve that. It is challenging to meet those targets but every effort is being made through the different schemes and policies we are putting in place to move in that direction.

I suppose, like every other sector of the economy, these are big tanks to turn. Progress builds up and momentum builds up. When one looks at the CAP plan we have in place and the various steps that we have in there, we expect it to continue to deliver and continue to improve.

Certainly we are hoping to publish the strategy in relation to anaerobic digestion in the next number of weeks and that will be important in terms of delivering significantly on some of the diversification options that we need to see evolve by the mid-point of the decade, and particularly in the second half of the decade.

I will try to get back anyhow.

If the Deputy can come back, that would be good. I thank the Deputy for that. Deputy Whitmore is next.

I thank the Minister for his presentation.

The 1.2% reduction was a reduction based on last year. What is the Department's reduction based on 2018 levels?

It is a similar reduction to 2018. There have been some small reductions and then, the year before last, there was a slight increase. We are now approximately 1.2% or 1.3% below 2018.

The target is for 25%-----

-----by 2030. That is in four years' time.

Sorry, 2030. Agriculture is at 1.2% or 1.3%.

The EPA, in its analysis in June, in which it reviewed how progress was made against the climate action plan, projected that emissions from the agriculture sector will decrease by between 4% and 20% to 2030. Based on the EPA's analysis, therefore, the maximum reduction in emissions from agriculture will be 20%, but the reduction could be anywhere between 4% and 20%. Is the Minister in agreement with those figures?

The assistant secretary tells me that diversification was not included in those figures and we strongly believe that over the course of this decade, we will see an uptake in diversification. Anaerobic digestion, in particular, has significant potential in providing diversification opportunities not only with regard to income but also with regard to land use, which can add to that as well.

Was diversification included in the climate action plan as a measure?

I am just wondering why the EPA did not have those figures. Is it that it was not provided with the figures to incorporate into its analysis?

It is because we have not made significant progress on them so far for the EPA to say that it can with authority include them as measures that will produce outcomes.

Does the Minister believe that in the next climate action plan those figures will be available to the EPA? We do not have a lot of time, and I understand that it is a difficult ship to turn, but will the EPA have enough information to make that full assessment next year?

Forestry is an area where we feel there is potential. We have announced a new forestry programme in the past few months. It is to significantly change the incentives for farmers to take that up. We hope we will see progress on that.

One of the other key diversification opportunities is AD, the strategy for which will be published this quarter. We want to see that lead to more AD development. We know from looking at other countries and, indeed, Northern Ireland, that we have a lot of ground to make up in that space. That is something we want to push on. That strategy will then enable the EPA to assess the likely progress around that. It is also a matter of looking to see how we can improve tillage. I want to see that. We import about two thirds of our cereal requirements for both animal feed and human food, yet we have among the best conditions for growing grain in the world. We have among the highest-yielding climates as well in terms of food production systems, so it makes a lot of sense that we look to step that forward. I have had a tillage group working over the past few months. I expect its report very shortly in terms of measures we can take. It is to be hoped that will be considered next year in terms of the inventory.

Great.

One of the actions in the climate action plan is to develop a proposal for a cow reduction voluntary exit scheme. I raised this at the last meeting and there was no information on it available. The timeline for that is quarter 4 of 2023, so will the Minister publish that this month?

It is still under consideration. It is one of the steps that remain to be considered fully.

I am conscious of my time. The Minister says it is under consideration. It is in the climate action plan to develop a proposal for a cow reduction scheme, and he has been in the media saying he was looking at it. Has that started? Is it planned to start? He is meant to publish it this month.

Models have been looked at as to how such a scheme could work, were we go ahead and step it out. I have been engaging with stakeholders throughout the agriculture sector as regards the place a reduction scheme might play. There is very considerable opposition among farmers and throughout the food supply chain to the introduction of such a scheme. There are lots of measures which we are doing and-----

I wish to come back to this because we are here to discuss the climate action plan and it is a very defined target that this would be developed and published now. When does the Minister anticipate that it will be published, or is he now at the point where he does not think he will go further with the target?

It continues to be under consideration. Overall, when we look at the agrifood sector, and when I look at it myself, our objective is to continue to produce food and to maintain food production but to reduce the emissions-----

I understand that, and I do not mean to be rude, but this is a key target in the climate action plan, and we are here to discuss the climate action plan. Obviously, the Minister will not meet that target this year.

When will the Minister publish that plan, or will he revoke it or not publish it?

That is still under consideration. It will not be published this quarter. I will continue to engage with stakeholders on it but there is no certainty at the moment, pending that further engagement, as to timelines.

It appears to me that this is not on the Minister's agenda at the moment.

Across the various ranges of the steps we are taking, we are stepping them out. The challenge around this particular one is that it could potentially have an impact on food production, which has a detrimental output.

Is the Minister talking about export food production or food production for Ireland? We export the majority of our dairy, I imagine.

Is the Minister talking about exports then, that is, the impact this would have on exports, as opposed to food within Ireland?

Our capacity to produce food is a valuable thing that farmers do and something I want to see continue. I do not want to see our capacity to produce food diminish. In fact, anywhere that can produce food will need to produce more of it in the years ahead.

This was incorporated as one of the actions in the climate action plan. It was one of the key considerations as to how to reduce emissions within the sector. In the absence of the Minister's progressing this, what will he replace it with to reduce emissions?

We continue to invest in research as well, and there is significant-----

We just do not have time to rely on research that is five or ten years away.

Not necessarily. Research is evolving very quickly here. We are conducting significant research at the moment as regards the capacity for feed additives to significantly reduce methane emissions. For example, the research which has been conducted can show in-house systems that can potentially reduce methane by up to 30%. Obviously, we are mostly pasture-based. That is being considered as to how that might work or evolve at pasture level. A couple of years ago, however, that was not on the radar to the same extent at all. That research and the potential of that is rapidly evolving, likewise genetic improvement. The latter is a slower burner but can make a difference too.

There are options, and we have to be aware of that because, overall, when we look at this and the past few years, the challenge and the impact of climate are making it much more difficult to produce food in this country at times, in terms of the more extreme weather events, but particularly in more climate-vulnerable countries. It is important that those countries that are fortunate enough to be able to produce food maximise their capacity to do that, while reducing the emissions footprint of how they produce it. Any step which will see food production reduced is something we have to think very carefully about before adopting.

May I just make one statement? I have a real fear that when it comes to this issue and dealing with emissions within the sector, the Minister is putting his head in the sand in the same way he put his head in the sand when it came to the derogations. That did no one any good because now we have thousands of farmers who thought that things would change for them and that they would be able to continue with business as usual but Europe has come in and said business as usual is not acceptable. The fact that it appears the Minister is not even investigating this seriously indicates to me that he is walking those farmers off a cliff again and that he is still in this mode of business as usual, whereby we can try to expand the markets internationally without acknowledging or reflecting on the fact that we have to change how things happen here. Farmers have to be supported to make those changes, but there has to be honesty from the Government and from politicians as well to say that changes are needed and will have to happen. The Minister has to work with them to do that. I have a real fear, in that what he said indicates that he will not do that. Essentially, we will have a whole sector in which, when we get to 2030 and have to reduce emissions quickly, the herd will be the quickest way to do it. I issue that warning to him because he is doing the agriculture sector a disservice by not acknowledging what needs to happen and what needs to be done.

Does the Minister want to respond to that?

If Deputy Whitmore had been following my approach and my engagement across the agriculture sector closely, she would see that at all times I am honest about the challenges we have and what we have to do. I have been honest in the answer I have given her today as well as to where this particular proposal stands. I have been honest as well and provided solid leadership and clarity throughout the derogation piece.

The Deputy is right that is important. I am also being honest about the fact that as we look forward, food production is going to be important and we are blessed in our capacity to produce food. We can produce way more than we need domestically. I came back three or four weeks ago from a trade mission to South Korea. It is a country the same size as ours in landmass terms, but 70% of the country is mountain or forest and not in agricultural use, so only 30% of the country is used for agriculture. On a landmass the same size as ours, South Korea has a population of 51 million, so it can in no way produce enough food domestically for its population. It is therefore depending on other countries to produce the food the 51 million people need-----

I do not think the country is depending on Ireland for that.

-----given its land area. It is likewise in many other parts of the world. We must also be honest about the importance and the challenge coming down the tracks due to population growth and the fact countries that can must produce food. The challenge for all of us is to produce that food to the best of our capacity and productivity while reducing the emissions footprint of how we produce it and lowering it significantly to achieve the targets we have in place, just as with any other thing we do in any sector of the economy. The one thing that is certain is food is going to be needed and it is really important we do not ignore the importance of producing that food and that we try to at least maintain that, while taking the steps that are going to reduce the emissions footprint of how it is farmed and produced.

I thank Deputy Whitmore. I will use this Government slot as no other Government members are indicating. I wish to pick up the Deputy's question on the challenge of sustainable food production and how we use land. I will focus on dairy. It is arguably the food the wider world needs and it is premium markets we are sending it to, which is certainly good for our economy and for those involved in the dairy sector, but it is arguable whether this is the food South Korea or developing nations need. The Minister might comment on that.

Picking up on Deputy Bruton's question, we are here because there is a provision built into the climate Act for a climate action plan to be published annually if we identify we are off track, and in pretty much every sector we are currently off track, so we are in a situation where we are having a revised climate action plan every year. With every such plan, new policies and measures have to be announced and added to the previous plan in order to try to get us back on track. The timing of this meeting and the meetings with the other Ministers is after the report of the Climate Change Advisory Council and the EPA report in the summer, but prior to the revision of the climate action plan. The purpose of having any Minister before this committee is to challenge the policies and for the Minister to inform us of what new measures may be coming down the track in the latest iteration of the climate action plan. The Minister has outlined in his statement what is being done currently and we welcome that, but given we are off track and acknowledging the very significant challenges that are there, what new measures does he see being added to the plan that will be published, I think, in a few weeks' time?

On anaerobic digestion, there is quite an ambitious plan for I think 200 digesters across the country by 2030. I cannot remember how many terawatt hours of energy that is. There is a conflict between AD and food production. The Minister must manage that conflict and I am interested to hear his thoughts on it. There is of course a conflict between biodiversity and nature protection and restoration and food production and anaerobic digestion as well, so it is not an easy one to get right. How does the Minister see that conflict being managed? We heard about a year ago from a researcher about the challenge of fugitive methane emissions from anaerobic digestion. This is an issue that is well-known in the fossil fuel industry. When natural gas or methane escapes up into the atmosphere it is, depending on the timeframe one is looking at, anything between 25 times and 85 times worse than carbon dioxide, so we must do everything we can to ensure there are not fugitive emissions from the agriculture sector as well as the fossil fuel industry. Are there measures or has the Minister's Department been thinking about how we can ensure that as we develop the AD sector in Ireland fugitive emissions do not become a future problem for us?

I thank the Cathaoirleach. Going back to dairying and whether that produces the food developing countries need, many products come out of our dairy sector. There is no doubt the food is very nutritious and a very worthwhile part of a balanced diet. It is a strong part of our diet, but also something that can really add to nutrition in many parts of the world. For example, I was in Nigeria a few months ago and while it does not buy cheese from us it buys milk powders for general consumption in small plastic packs. That is the main dairy product we send out. It is bought in shops in powder form and then mixed with water and drunk as a staple drink by people. It is a very low-cost, nutritious product in that country and there is strong market for it there. Again, Nigeria is country that is not self-sufficient in food at the moment. It had a great agricultural tradition, but because of domestic management challenges and economic challenges a country that used to be a net exporter of food is now a net importer of food. It is a country with a population of 200 million and it is growing rapidly. It is expected to have 500 million people by 2050 and become one of the largest countries in the world. That population trajectory indicates a significant food demand. The dairy product going there is not what we are used to or would find especially palatable either, but it is something that is quite popular and very economically sought-after as a nutritious food product there. Obviously, right across the sector our objective is to maximise the value from what we do, but with milk and dairy production our grass-based system, when compared with the primarily grain-based system used in the vast majority of other countries, means we have lower costs and a more sustainable model in terms of how we produce it. It therefore has an important role not just in high value markets but also as an example in relation to African markets as milk powders.

On new measures in the climate action plan, we continue to engage with research organisations, especially Teagasc, which developed the first marginal abatement cost curve, MACC, that fed into our climate action plan. Teagasc recently published an updated MACC looking at potential options and opportunities for diversification and new measures. We continue to look to see what is possible, because we want to do as much as we can and as much as we can deliver upon. For example, the very rapidly evolving research around feed additives is one of the spaces that can make a difference there. Another one is the capacity around anaerobic digestion. The Cathaoirleach is correct we must balance and consider that. We have set out targets that could see 10% of our total national gas usage by 2030 delivered through farms through anaerobic digestion. That leads to alternative land use where farmers decide to do that because it will be profitable for them to do so. As we go forward we must, in our policy environment, see how we balance one against the other.

I have no doubt that, in the decades ahead, ensuring that there is food security internationally will be balanced against how land is used for energy.

The issue of fugitive gas emissions will have to be central. Any use of anaerobic digestion, AD, is going to have to be sustainable. To drive this, it is important that the feed crop be grown in a sustainable way by using natural, good, fertile and healthy soil for natural types of legume and other plants.

It is not the Minister’s fault, but he is responsible for the No. 1 greenhouse gas-emitting sector of the economy. It has the lowest percentage reduction target to-----

My apologies for interrupting Deputy Murphy, but I have received a message from Deputy O’Rourke, who needs to go.

Does Deputy O’Rourke wish to contribute now? He is tight on time.

If we are still here at 10.45 a.m., I would be happy to contribute then.

We can be if Deputy Murphy has lots of questions.

Then we certainly can be. Or we can go back and forth if the Deputy prefers.

Agriculture has the smallest target in percentage terms, but it will have a large impact on whether we achieve our overall 51% reduction. The sector used 44% of the first carbon budget’s emissions ceiling in the first two years alone. Does the Minister accept that, as matters stand, the sector is significantly off track for meeting the 25% reduction target?

We have ground to make up. We are no different from any other sector in that. Indeed, some sectors are even further behind. We are making progress, but we have ground to make up.

Will what the Minister outlined in his opening statement be enough to make up that ground?

It can be. Making it up in the short term is a big ask, but there is capacity for the measures we are putting in place to build momentum. We will see that momentum building in agriculture, as it has to. It was good to see farmers’ work, which is still ongoing, starting to show real results in terms of last year’s reduction in emissions. Consider the significant change in approaches and farming practices where chemical fertilisers are concerned. Farmers have made progress in that regard in recent years. Last year, chemical fertiliser usage was down by 14%. It is on course to be down a further 15% approximately this year. That is rapid progress, but we need to work on it. A great deal of good work is happening.

Does the Minister believe that we can meet the 25% reduction target without a reduction in the total volume of meat and dairy production?

Yes. Teagasc’s marginal abatement cost curve, MACC, and the assessment of the measures we have in place and are being worked on show that it can be achieved. It will take a hell of an effort, but it can be done.

Is there any limit to how many dairy cows the Minister believes the country should have? Is that limit compatible with meeting the climate targets?

Quite unusually in economic terms, we had a dairy sector that was constrained by quotas for approximately 30 years. That led to a distortion of the balance between agriculture’s various sectors, as dairy could not expand. Following the removal of quotas at European level, we saw an expansion in the dairy herd. There has now been a stabilisation and, indeed, a small net reduction of the cattle herd in the past year or two. Dairy has found its level. The objective is to focus on reducing the herd’s emissions.

I believe the Minister is wrong that the 25% reduction, which is itself inadequate, will be achievable without reducing the total volume of meat and dairy production. Related to that, what is the Minister’s opinion of the so-called Dublin declaration, which basically suggested that the production of meat and so on could be a positive for the environment?

The production of meat and dairy is positive in terms of feeding people. Key to this is continuing our work and taking every step we can to reduce that production’s emissions footprint. Meat and dairy production is something that our country has been doing for a long time and meat and dairy are staple parts of diets in many other parts of the world. Our herd size is just 4% larger than it was 50 years ago. This production is something that we should keep doing. It is an important activity.

Does the Minister believe that the production of meat is beneficial to the environment?

It is important. This is about doing it sustainably, and it can be done very sustainably.

The Dublin Declaration of Scientists on the Societal Role of Livestock claimed that the production of meat was beneficial to the environment. It is not clear whether the Minister is saying it is not beneficial but it is important for food production and, therefore, we have to take a hit on the environment or whether he is endorsing the claim that meat production is beneficial to the environment.

Meat, dairy and grain production can be done in a way that is sustainable and in sync with the environment around it as part of a sustainable food system.

Does the Minister believe it was appropriate for public money, through Teagasc, to be used to host this conference, which resulted in The Dublin Declaration of Scientists on the Societal Role of Livestock? Some €45,000 of public money was spent on what was effectively an exercise in climate denial.

I disagree with what the Deputy is saying, but I agree that it was appropriate for Teagasc, as it always does, to lead out in terms of its research and the sustainable food system that we have.

The Minister sees no parallel between what the meat industry, which was behind the Dublin declaration, was doing and the climate denialism of the fossil fuel industry.

When Teagasc is involved in and puts its name to something, it examines it with scientific rigour. I fully back its work.

I do not take seriously the Minister’s claim that he is serious about reducing emissions by 25% when he is endorsing the spending of public money on a climate denialist exercise. Does he accept that the meat industry was behind the Dublin declaration?

I do not agree it was a climate denialist exercise. Teagasc organised that conference. All the work that Teagasc does is robust. Anything it attaches its name to is backed up by its scientific work. Our meat, dairy and grain production has to be part of a sustainable food system. We have a strong and sustainable food system that we have to make even more sustainable, particularly by seeking to reduce the emissions footprint of how we produce that food.

I am a bit taken aback that the Minister did not at least distance himself from it.

Does the Minister accept the new research that suggests the potential for soil carbon sequestration on grasslands is much lower, and uncertain at best, compared with what was set out in previous research? Will he ensure that no carbon farming scheme is permitted to operate in Ireland on the basis of out-of-date scientific information?

The way it is measured and the science around how we undertake any carbon sequestration always have to be backed up robustly. We are investing a great deal right now. I outlined the research that Teagasc was doing via the 30 flux towers around the country. I have established the soil carbon observatory and funded it for Teagasc. Teagasc’s key role in this is to keep learning and updating, having the most recent science and breaking new scientific ground. It is important that we find ways of monetising carbon sequestration and providing income streams for farmers.

Presumably, the Minister is aware of recent figures from his Department suggesting that the emissions from peatland forestry were underestimated and, as a consequence, Irish forests are set to become a source of carbon rather than a carbon sink in the 26 years before 2050 because they were planted on peatlands. How does the Minister respond to that information? Does he accept that there has been a problem with our forest plantation policy? What guidance will he give to landowners with forestry on drained peatlands?

As with everything else in our everyday lives, knowledge and research around the impact of anything we do on the environment has been constantly evolving. We will have a challenge over the next number of years in terms of emissions and the age profile of our national forests, given how there was significant afforestation in the 1980s and 1990s in particular.

As trees grow, particularly in the second half of their lifespan, they acquire and sequester carbon in a much faster way than when they are saplings. Some of our mature forests are being harvested now and they will be replanted. There is a legal obligation to replant but there is less sequestration from new saplings than from larger trees. In the past there was more forestry grown and planted in peatlands. The research and understanding around such work has changed significantly in terms of the potential to release carbon. As a result the new forestry programme has very different rules now in terms of where forests can be planted. In particular, it prevents them from being planted on peatland. On how we manage forests that are harvested that were previously on peatlands, we are continuing to research and work with the forest services and research agencies on how best to approach these sites.

I will return to the original point that I discussed with the Minister, which is agricultural emissions being correlated with the total volume of meat and dairy output. The Minister argues that we can at least maintain the same size of meat and dairy output, or even increase that, yet still achieve our targets. Let us hope that he is right if that is the chosen policy. Let us say that he is wrong and nowhere near achieving the 25% reduction target in 2026, 2027 and 2028. At what point will the Minister look at that again and say we need to reduce total meat and dairy?

We must continually look at this year on year. That is why the climate action plan and the annual plans that each Department and Minister must put together are reviewed, looked at and updated annually. That is why we have this process as well in terms of engagement and accountability. It is something we have to look at on an ongoing basis.

Things are evolving rapidly. I gave the example of feed additives. In our agricultural emissions profile, about one-third is related to nitrous oxide and CO2. Most of the one third is nitrous oxide which is related to chemical fertilisers and a small proportion of it is CO2 from machinery use, for example. Over the last two years we have seen a 30% reduction in the use of chemical fertilisers, which is phenomenal progress and a great achievement. The other two thirds of emissions from agriculture relate to methane, which is direct from livestock. There has been research on feed additives. Our own domestic research has shown that with house systems you can achieve a 30% reduction in methane with the exact same number of animals, which is significant, and applying the research to pastoral systems is being looked at too. There is a lot of attention and research going into what additional steps we could take. We are partnering strongly with New Zealand, for example, which is most similar to ourselves internationally in terms of being a grass-based grazing production system and jointly investing in research projects there. We have to look at that, continue to monitor it. We should be doing that on a year-to-year basis.

The Minister has helpfully answered in terms of nitrous oxide. Any reduction is very welcome. Has it decreased by 33%?

It was about 15% last year and, potentially, 17% this year but we have not reached the end of the year yet. There has roughly been a 30% reduction compared with a couple of years ago.

Nitrous oxide is between 200 and 300 times worse than CO2 as a greenhouse gas so it is critically important to reduce such emissions. If you can reduce nitrous oxide at all, it makes the challenge a lot easier. To be fair to the Minister, the reduction is due to the promotion of better farming practices and farming without excess use of nitrogen. A lot of it is due to the price increase following the war in Ukraine. I guess my fear would be that prices would come down again and we might be in the situation where the Minister's challenge is greater and farmers start to use chemical fertiliser again. Is there any indication that the measures the Minister has brought in are working? Have they shown farmers that they can grow sufficient grass without the use of chemical fertiliser and that they will not need to revert to chemical fertiliser if it becomes cheaper, depending on the geopolitical situation? In 2018 there was very high usage of chemical fertilisers and there was a drought. I think that farmers used fertiliser because they struggled to grow grass but a lot of that oxidised and went up into the atmosphere which led to very high emissions. I think we must make sure that the methods of growing grass without chemical fertiliser work and that farmers have confidence because fertilisers do not just have an environmental impact; there is also a huge cost issue.

There is no doubt that costs have been a challenge for farmers over the last couple of years and have had an impact on demand. Costs have also assisted in the massive transformation that is under way at farm level. The cost of fertiliser has significantly reduced this year. It was expensive at the start of the year but as the year progressed the price very significantly reduced. If cost is the main driver, you would have expected to see a drop in price last year because it was very expensive all year. At the start of this year fertiliser was not as expensive. You would expect, whenever the price came back closer to a regular price, that the price would have shot up but that has not been the case in terms of usage or purchase. In fact, the reduction in the use of chemical fertilisers has continued. That is because of the massive transformation that is happening at farm level, which does not often get the attention it deserves, and the massive adaptation and work that farmers are doing in this space. A 30% reduction over two years is radical and that work is ongoing. We are working at a policy level to support that and we have put in place a number of schemes to drive that on. We are doing a lot of work in knowledge transfer and research to support that. Last year and this year, we have had the multispecies sward scheme, which has promoted the application and resowing of multispecies sward so farmers can move away from the need to use chemical fertilisers. Also this year, there has been a very significant uptake in the lime spreading scheme to improve soil fertility. My Department has run and has funded soil-sampling schemes to encourage farmers to sample their soil, which was not something that was always happening, so that nutrients are not being applied unnecessarily. The scheme is working well.

In terms of nitrates, we are looking to radically change the efficient use of organic fertiliser and slurry because we want it put on at the right time, in the right quantity, in the right weather and in the right growing conditions. If farmers do that and utilise the resource, I believe we can use it better. Again, the transition is fast moving. That means farmers are already utilising resources in a much more efficient way. When fertiliser is used properly and right you are minimising and removing the pollution risk. Also, as a result you are removing the need to use chemical fertilisers instead. We funded that through the low-emissions slurry spreading grants. There was 40% grant aid available but now there is 60% grant aid available to enable farmers to buy low-emissions slurry spreaders. That means slurry is applied directly into the ground and no gases are released into the air, and utilises grass uptake in a much better way.

We have seen 5,000 of those machines purchased through that grant. That is making a massive difference and is working. I will give an example. Knowledge transfer is important here, as is getting that knowledge and research applied at farm level. There is good work going on and we are seeing that in the figures. This is how things are evolving. Four or five years ago people would have thought you were fanciful if you were talking about this, or that this was not possible. On the Lyons estate and the research firm attached to UCD, there have been trials ongoing for the last three years with three strips of land. There is drainage in the land to drain all the water coming off each of the strips into one funnel point where it gets tested. They are able to assess the water run-off as to what is happening in the soil and the water. They treat the three strips differently. On the three strips of land they have the exact same animals, born at the same time, of the same breed and the same age, etc. They keep them and treat them differently. The only difference between the animals is the type of land they are grazed on. One of the strips of land is traditional monoculture ryegrass with a very high fertiliser usage at the upper limits, so it is very intensively farmed. The second set of cattle is grazed on a high clover content sward with a lot less chemical fertiliser. The other cattle are grazed on a multispecies sward with minimal or very little fertiliser usage. What clover and multispecies swards do is pull the nitrogen out of the air and fix it into the soil naturally, avoiding the need to spread chemical fertiliser with nitrogen in it because these plants are taking the nitrogen out of the air, where it is very bountiful, and putting it into the soil. The benefit of having either clover or multispecies swards is that the amount of nitrogen that is pulled out of the air and into the soil is much more balanced with growth rates. As the plants are growing, the amount of nitrogen getting pulled out of the air and fixed into the soil is in balance with the amount of growth that is happening in that sward. They do not have unnecessary excess nutrients that provide the opportunity for those nitrogens to be leached.

For those three examples, is it the same food output?

No, it is not. The poorest performing output in terms of beef and profitability is the high-fertiliser one-sward yield. The next best performing is the clover sward and the highest performing animals are on the multispecies sward. Looking at the amount of dry matter grass that is being grown, it is similar. The highest amount of dry matter grass is coming from the multispecies sward. Next is the clover and least is the ryegrass, which is very well farmed. It is what we would have known as technically very good farming but it has less dry matter. In the multispecies sward the animals are going to slaughter earlier. They have an earlier slaughter date, meaning there is less methane from that as well. There are fewer inputs because there is no chemical fertiliser and there is also better health.

That is very interesting. Is this research that is being done relatively new? Does this knowledge need to be imparted across the sector? What is the uptake like or what do we expect uptake to be like?

It is very good. This is research that my Department has paid for and it is UCD that is doing that. Teagasc likewise has been doing similar trials. All of this research is emerging now but what happens then is that Teagasc, through what we are funding and supporting, takes that research and works with signpost farms spread across the country to get farmers to apply that research and knowledge. It is something that can improve profitability as well. A big task is working to make sure this new knowledge is applied. Four or five years ago people would have said it was fanciful or dreamy talk to say this would be the case. Those swards would have traditionally been looked at as weeds in some cases. People would say it is not what they are used to looking at or that it is not good farming, as we have come to understand it, but the research and the evidence is showing that it works and that it is more profitable and produces more food with fewer emissions. That work is under way and we are seeing the evidence of that in that 30% reduction in fertiliser and that rapid transformation. Methane also drops because of earlier slaughter dates and there is improved animal health in the process.

That is very interesting. I thank the Minister for that. Seldom do we get this kind of engagement and so much time. Deputy Bruton has returned. Does he want to come in again?

I do not want to repeat anything. The whole issue in farming seems to be getting the take-up in sufficient numbers, for both the new techniques and taking up forestry and all these elements. There are some programmes, like the forestry one, that look very impressive but yet are not achieving the take-up we would hope for. Is there any sense in looking at geographic areas and specific geographic targets around some of these key elements of take-up? It seems to me that if it was worked around a particular river catchment or geographic area, there would be more peer effort and engagement from local branches of this, that and the other. You could also engage with the local processors who may pay premiums. When it is at national level it all seems very difficult. Would we have a better chance of setting a target for forestry if we drilled down to some other geographic area and had compacts across the players within those geographic areas? I know there is an interest in the south east in looking at one of the worst river catchments there. It is possibly an approach that would yield a bit more dividend and get more people engaged in seeing climate action not as hostile but as the future of a competitive food sector, land use sector and so on.

The Deputy is right. The more we can bring this to the local level and have collaboration within the sector and across the different layers in the sector, the more progress we will make. We have been looking to do that as regards applying the knowledge. For example, we have the Teagasc signpost farms where they have developed that network over the last two or three years across the country. There is no better way to learn that than farmers coming onto a farm and seeing it being applied and saying if that can be done there, it can be done on their own farms. About a month ago the French minister for agriculture, Marc Fesneau, and I went to visit a farmer out in Meath. He is a really good progressive young farmer. His name eludes me so apologies for that. He was able to show in the last three or four years on that signpost farm the steps he has taken in relation to pasture management, the types of sward-----

Let us say there was a Meath strategy. Two of us at least know a little about the county. Could that mobilise more commercial players, farmers, local authorities and the wildlife service if we set some targets for Meath to see if we could deliver them together?

Possibly. One of the steps we are taking in relation to water quality is launching a new European innovation partnership programme and investing €60 million in that. That is looking at water on a catchment basis and bringing farmers together within the catchment area to manage how they come together and take steps that will make a difference. Likewise the signpost project is working around signpost farms in different parts of the country. That is the type of model that works. I am not so sure that setting forestry targets by county would make a difference. That is an individual farmer decision. Everybody decides how they use their farm. There is no doubt that collaboration in regional settings and localities generally aids adoption. I would agree with the thrust of what the Deputy is saying. It has been working where we have applied it and any other ways we can encourage that will certainly be helpful. The new ACRES scheme, compared to the previous GLAS scheme, has co-operation project areas designed around the co-operation project team, which is county-based. That brings farmers together to deliver achievements and objectives that are specific to that area or county.

It works and anywhere we can step it out or see potential for it, we should look to develop it.

I thank the Minister. When is it planned to announce the sectoral emissions ceiling for LULUCF? What are the barriers in data to making that happen? What is the timeline for it?

We are engaging across government on the issue. We delayed announcing sectoral ceilings for LULUCF because much of the data is emerging and it is not clear. There are still gaps. The land use review is ongoing. It is moving to phase 2. That will be important in informing the review too. We are continuing to engage at Government level to decide when we do that. We have to make sure we have the data that provides certainty about making those decisions too.

That is the land use review. Are there any other gaps in the building blocks for coming to a decision like that?

The land use review will be important because it is gathering much of the data. That is still moving on.

Will it be in 2024?

It is a decision still to be made by the Government. There is active engagement on it but it is a decision we still have to make.

Regarding forestry on drained peatlands and the advice from Government and the Department about that, is that emerging or something that-----

The Deputy is referring to forestry on drained peatlands.

Our new forestry programme has made changes regarding where trees can be planted. Anything with a peat depth of more than 30 cm is excluded from our current forestry programme. Many areas which would have traditionally been forested many decades ago are no longer eligible because our understanding from the research and evidence about the contribution to emissions reductions has significantly changed. A significant peat area is now excluded, with a depth of 30 cm set as the threshold.

I know the Climate Change Advisory Council, in its 2023 review, pointed towards updated information on the impact of afforestation on drained peatlands. Does that advice incorporate that updated information-----

-----or is it under review?

On encouraging people into tillage and organic farming, ACRES is essentially the Government's flagship agri-environment scheme. There seems to be significant interest in it. I do not know what the tranche 1 intake was. I think the intake in tranche 2 is 4,000. There were 46,000 expressions of interest.

Is there scope or ambition for flexibilities? It seems, at a time when we need to move people into that space, that we should not put up barriers. Is there scope to do more quicker?

The objective is to do this quickly and to back people in their ambition. Some 46,000 farmers applied for ACRES this year. We secured places for everyone who applied and was successful. They were accepted into it. That is the first time that happened. As part of the-----

There are, therefore, 46,000-----

There are 46,000 currently in it. All 46,000 who applied were accepted. They applied at the end of last year and this is the first full year for that 46,000. It is currently open and due to close in just over a week for tranche 2. Within the CAP strategic plan, there is a funding allocation over five years to be able to facilitate a total of 50,000. That CAP strategic plan has many other measures and schemes which are really important too. It is funded to a tune that we have never seen before. We have increased the funding from the State for those schemes by 50%. Obviously there are budgetary limits on it. Any change to that would require changes to our financial projections and our five-year budgeting, not just one-year budgeting. While the officials and advisers made a great effort to make sure we could get all 46,000 applicants in this year, that figure was within the 50,000 figure that we had profiled over five years. Any change to the 50,000 figure would require changes to the financial projections from my Department that I would have to get agreed with the Department of public expenditure. Obviously, I would love to do that. I keep pushing that as hard as I can but the national Exchequer has its limits too. I will keep engaging. I would like to do anything that I can here. I expect this particular tranche to be oversubscribed. I only have the funding to go to 50,000.

A number of people touched on the anaerobic digestion policy. We had a briefing from some people working in CASE, the Centre for Advanced Sustainable Energy, in the North. They have mapped out the type of infrastructure that they might need and that might be sustainable in the North. In the South, we have the renewable spatial plan to come from the Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications, which is about regional targets for the delivery of renewable energy. Significant questions that come up about anaerobic digesters include how many of them should there be, where would they be appropriately located, their sustainability with regard to what is being fed into them and how we are using our land. There are a number of applications across the State, including in my own area. Those are the questions that communities have about these projects. My sense about all this is that it is far better if it is plan-led and there is a sense that there is oversight of it, rather than it being speculative, developer-led and potentially contradictory or opportunistic. Are there plans to align the anaerobic digestion strategy with the regional spatial strategies for renewable energy? How are those questions of sustainability being assessed in that?

The Deputy is right that it makes sense to have all this joined up. That is why we have been working and finalising the strategy for anaerobic digestion. It is pretty much finished. The final engagement is happening across the Departments. We hope to publish it in the very near future. That looks at the different aspects of it. The Deputy is right that the feedstock needs to be sustainable. That needs to be thought about too, as does how it is spread out. These is also a matter of giving people guidance about what funding streams are possible or not. The strategy takes into account those different aspects and will provide that clarity and coherence from a policy point of view.

Have an analysis been done of the distribution of emissions, in other words, what percentage of farmers and agrifood companies are responsible for what percentage of emissions? It is not the case that 1% of farmers are responsible for 1% of emissions. It would presumably be distributed quite unequally.

We have a good idea across different sectors. We have considerable data on that.

Will the Minister provide that data in a written note afterwards, stating, for example, that the biggest 10% of farmers are responsible for a certain amount of carbon emissions, to get a picture of that? I think the average small farmer does not have a high degree of responsibility for carbon emissions.

It is pretty much all family farms in this country. There are very few big farms.

The big farms that we have are responsible for a disproportionate number-----

We have negligible big farms. It is a family farm model. It is not like other countries. The average farm size in the country is 32 ha. The average number of dairy cows per farm is 85.

Farm sizes in beef and sheep are much smaller. Our system is very different from those in other countries in Europe and across the Irish Sea, where there are much larger farms. It is not the case that the top 1% of farmers here are producing 30% of emissions; it is spread across all family farms.

Let us see the figures to back up that assertion. Citing averages does not tell us anything about distribution.

Will the Department consider launching a campaign encouraging people to consume a more plant-based diet?

The health advice is the health advice. The role of agriculture and the food industry is to produce food in a way that is part of a sustainable food system.

I am not a vegetarian or vegan myself but I presume the Minister agrees that vegetarian or vegan diets produce significantly lower carbon emissions than do more meat-based diets. That is just scientific fact.

It would depend on what food is being produced and eaten. Are people, for example, having avocados for breakfast?

Come on, Minister. Do you accept the facts about vegetarian and vegan diets?

I do not know. There are so many variables. A balanced diet makes sense from the point of view of individual nutrition. There are many very unbalanced diets that are missing a lot of nutrients and good foods. Our objective from an agriculture point of view is to make sure we have a good, sustainable food system, which we have and are working to develop-----

The Department has no problem with Bord Bia promoting the consumption of dairy and meat. I do no see why the Department cannot promote plant-based diets. That would align with the Minister's targets under the climate action plan.

We are promoting the credentials of our food in terms of how it is produced, its nutrition and the reasons Irish dairy produce is among the best in the world. If there are people who get up in the morning and only eat meat all day or only drink milk all day, their nutritionist would be suggesting they consider a more balanced diet. Likewise, if people take milk or meat out of their diet, a nutritionist might be asking whether their diet is balanced.

It is possible to have a perfectly balanced diet without consuming any dairy and meat.

I am not a nutritionist but I can tell the Deputy that the food Irish farmers produce is massively nutritious.

The Origin Green programme is a Bord Bia programme. It was reported recently that a number of companies certified under the programme were investigated for breaches of their environmental licences. How would the Minister respond to that? I am sure it is of concern to him that Irish agricultural produce might have this cloud over it. How, as Minister, does he react to that?

Whether in respect of farms or food companies, we must ensure production is done in a way that is sensitive to the environment around us and adheres to all the regulations that are in place. Our farming and agricultural system is world-leading in terms of its sustainability and standards.

There is a question mark, however, because a number of companies that have the Origin Green certification were investigated. That needs to be addressed.

If people are not meeting the standards that are put in place, they will be called out on it. Every company and farm must work within the set standards and regulations. The Origin Green brand is something we value. It goes over and beyond what is standard regulatory compliance across the EU. It advertises and communicates how our food is produced and its individual merits. It gives us a great capacity in ensuring we can maximise the value of what we are producing and consumers' understanding of that value, not just here but internationally. It is a brand we need to hold dearly. In terms of how it is overseen, we must make sure there is strict adherence. Bord Bia and the Department certainly take that responsibility seriously.

I am conscious of the Minister's time constraint. Deputy Whitmore has a quick question on the same issue.

I do not know the ins and outs of the Origin Green programme but is there not a requirement for producers to be compliant with all the standards? Is it not automatic that if a producer is deemed to be non-compliant with any environmental regulation, that producer will be struck off?

I am not an expert on the exact technicalities of the programme but it certainly requires very high standards. I am not sure of the precise technical requirements but I know all producers are held to a very standard. I can send the Deputy a note on that.

That would be helpful. Is the Minister in agreement that there should be a strike-off if a producer is not in compliance with the environmental regulations, which would mean that producer can no longer participate in the scheme?

Every company and farmer needs to live up to the set standards. Those standards are high and it is important that they are overseen across the board for the maintenance and protection of the Origin Green brand. That is something we must hold dearly. I will send the Deputy a note specifically on the technicalities.

I thank the Minister.

We would appreciate if the Minister could send that note, addressing the concerns outlined from the Department's point of view, to the secretariat. Copies of it will then be circulated to members. I have a quick final question regarding the Ag Climatise action on the future of farming dialogue. Where are we at on that action at this point?

I will come back to the committee with a note on the up-to-date position on that action.

I would appreciate that. This has been a very interesting meeting. I thank the Minister for his engagement and for staying a little later than scheduled. I thank him for all the work he is doing in steering the sector in the right direction. There is a lot still to do but a lot is being done. I thank members for their engagement this morning.

Sitting suspended at 11.07 a.m and resumed at 1.41 p.m.

Apologies have been received from Deputy Alan Farrell and Senator Boylan. The purpose of this meeting is to discuss and review the Climate Action Plan 2023. I welcome the Minister for the Environment, Climate and Communications, Deputy Eamon Ryan.

As usual, before I begin, I will read out a note on privilege. I remind our guests of the long-standing parliamentary practice that they should not criticise or make charges against any person or entity by name or in such a way as to make him, her or it identifiable or otherwise engage in speech that might be regarded as damaging to the good name of the person or entity. If their statements are potentially defamatory in respect of an identifiable person or entity, I will direct them to discontinue their remarks and it is imperative they comply with any such direction.

Members of the committee are reminded of the long-standing parliamentary practice to the effect that they should not comment on, criticise or make charges against a person outside the Houses or an official either by name or in such a way as to make him or her identifiable. I remind members that they are only allowed to participate in this meeting if they are physically located on the Leinster House campus. In this regard, I ask all members who are joining online or remotely from their offices to confirm, prior to making their contribution, that they are on the grounds of the Leinster House campus.

I invite the Minister to make his opening statement.

I thank the Chair and members of the committee for inviting me here as part of the enhanced climate governance and reporting processes that were put in place by the Climate Act 2021. This provision in the Act supports greater transparency and accountability in how we plan and deliver our climate action. This committee has a critical role in this process, in reviewing the latest Environmental Protection Agency, EPA, and Climate Change Advisory Council, CCAC, reports before inviting Ministers to attend and discuss their performance in supporting the delivery of our climate ambition, and in meeting our sectoral emissions ceiling and carbon budgets. This is the first time we have engaged in this process under the legislative framework and it is significant in that regard.

The CCAC’s annual review and the EPA’s emissions reports play a key role in informing the Department’s preparation of the annual update to the climate action plan. They are key reference documents to inform and guide the consultation that takes place with stakeholders as part of the process to update and refine the policies, measures and actions within the plan. Following the publication of the CCAC's annual review in July, officials from my Department and members of the CCAC secretariat engaged in a series of one-to-one consultations on individual sectors at which they discussed the review, its recommendations and how this would inform the ongoing work to prepare Climate Action Plan 2024.

Furthermore, in October, in response to a letter from the Chair of the Oireachtas joint committee, my Department issued a detailed response to the recommendations set out in the CCAC's annual review. This year’s annual review highlighted how, at the current rate of implementation, Ireland will not stay within the limits of our first two carbon budgets. I will, however, outline some key points that are important to understand. Ireland’s population and economy have grown significantly over the past few years. With that come more people in employment, more people travelling to work, more business, more houses being built and more recreational activity. Given this backdrop, seeing Ireland’s emissions fall last year was welcome. When the Government started, we had forecast less population growth and less GDP growth and an increased emissions trajectory by 2030. Last year, this was forecast to drop by 29% given significantly more people and greater economic activity. I expect this year that the 2030 projections will be lower again.

We are, however, changing course. This year, our use of coal for electricity fell by 54% to the end of October, our use of oil fell by 83% and our use of gas fell by 5%. Our interconnectors are working to displace high-carbon fuel with lower carbon imports. Our fertiliser use is down by more than 25% in two years and our use of heating fuels is falling by almost 10% in the year to date. I expect that this year, Ireland's emissions will fall at an accelerating rate, given lower energy use in most sectors and lower emissions in agriculture. We should be optimistic in believing the changes we are bringing are having an impact, which I expect to accelerate each year if we stay the course.

While I know we have the ability to accelerate the rate of implementation and to refine our policies, measures and actions to increase their impact, I recognise that this is a great challenge that will require transformative action and co-operation among all sectors of our society, a change that I believe will be positive for Ireland, Europe and the world. Under the current ministerial accountability framework for the sectoral emissions ceiling, as Minister for the Environment, Climate and Communications, I have responsibility for the electricity ceiling, the residential buildings ceiling and the ceiling for F-gases, waste and petroleum refining, known as the other ceiling. I also have responsibility for the public sector, with the Minister for public expenditure and reform taking a joint co-ordinating role over various Departments.

As Minister for Transport, I also have responsibility for the transport sectoral emissions ceiling, which will be discussed at a separate meeting of the committee. This ministerial accountability framework is to be reviewed and revised in the context of the 2024 climate action plan to ensure optimal accountability arrangements are in place to drive necessary action.

As we come to the end of 2023, I believe we have seen progress this year in our efforts to deliver on ambitious climate targets. However, further work is clearly required and the CCAC’s annual review reminds us of this. The review also serves to highlight the potential range of actions available to us and these are being taken into consideration as we further develop and refine our approach to achieving 51% emissions reduction by 2030 and net zero by 2050. I thank the committee and acknowledge the integral role its members will play in reviewing and contributing to the Government’s progress towards reaching our climate ambitions. The oversight this committee provides is a key component of our enhanced climate governance and accountability structures.

I thank the Minister. An annual revision of the climate action plan is built into the Climate Act 2021 and the provision is that this committee must come back year after year, and if we are off track, we revise the plan. We are off track, notwithstanding that a lot of good work has been done in all sectors, and we are here to try to inform the next iteration of the climate action plan, which we will see in a few weeks. Will the Minister tell us what is going to be new in the climate action plan? What additional measures are we going to see to help all sectors get back on track?

It is a corrective process. We have not yet gone to the Government and we are going to have to do so, which will happen before we break for Christmas. It will have to contain a variety of additional measures. It will not be significantly different from the 2023 plan, which was a significant step up, and in a number of sectors it is a matter of delivering what is committed to and promised. One of the key issues we need to focus on is how we can scale up existing measures rather than continuously look for new or other technological solutions. It will require us to meet our targets and to fulfil the legislative requirements. We know we have to address the issue of land use emissions and that is one element the plan will have to address. Last year, in the design of the climate action plan and the sectoral emission allocations, we recognised there was significant uncertainty as to what even the base-line emission levels were in land use and that is something on which we have done a lot of work in the past year, which we will present as part of the climate action plan.

Similarly, we know we will have to allocate some 5.5 million tonnes in the black box of unallocated emissions across sectors. Again, the mechanism for doing that will be a key component of Climate Action Plan 2024. Another new and different aspect of this climate action plan in comparison with previous ones is that there will be a requirement for a strategic environmental assessment. I expect, subject to it being approved by the Government, we will publish and then go into a public consultation process ,which is required in the strategic and environmental assessment. That is likely to start in the new year. I do not think there is any point going to public consultation in Christmas week, but we will prepare it for public consultation early in the new year, as is required under the environmental regulations under which we operate. The exact mechanisms, as I said, are not concluded. We will look at additional measures particularly with regard to the further allocation of the €5.5 million tonnes. There is a variety of more specific technological areas where we will look for further emissions reductions. None of those are easy and some are testing the edge of what we can do in the time lines required but we do have a series of technological sectors where we see further emissions reduction potential. It will be focusing on a relatively small number of those as well as delivering on the existing measures that we need to deliver on.

At the same time, we are also involved in a European Union process. In the next week or two, we have to deliver our national energy and climate action plan to the European Union. We have this complicated system where we have our own national law and governance structure and that has a lot of similarities with what we need to do in the European governance framework. There is a significant difference between what we have as existing measures and then additional measures. Some of the additional measures would be similar to what we need to do to get our own climate emissions reductions back on track.

I am sorry for the long response. I put those figures in, which are the latest information, because sometimes people can get a sense of hopelessness to the effect that it is not possible, that we cannot do this, etc. However, there is significant change, even in recent months. The emissions trajectory in a couple of sectors are starting to show significant change. In electricity, I understand the first half of the year has seen a 15% reduction. That is due to a variety of different factors including warm weather, renewables storage - I was told yesterday we were able to call on about 125 MW of two-hour battery storage that avoid having to turn on a dirty high-emission plant - and there is also the use of the interconnectors. Sometimes it can be technical issues. The differential between the UK carbon price and our ETS price. Seeing a significant change in the way the interconnectors are working which has helped us not having to turn on Moneypoint as a back-up power supply. People think it is not possible but that just shows to me it is. That is not to say we are out the gap or anything like it at all; we have a huge challenge. Let us take the example of agriculture. There is a lot of commentary to the effect that this will be bad for agriculture and so on. The 25% to 30% reduction in nitrogen fertiliser use in the past two years is significant. Had we said four or five years ago that you would cut nitrogen fertiliser use by 30%, no one would have thought it possible. The greatest benefit of that is a saving of 30% of the cost for Irish farmers.

I just mention those two matters. The areas where we probably have the biggest difficulty are in transport and the built environment. We have always had difficulty there. There will be a number of additional measures in things like transport. I was speaking in the Dáil earlier - Deputy Bruton was there - on the potential for rail freight as an example of the sort of additional measures we may look to advance to close the gap.

I thank the Minister. I acknowledge that there are very strong signs that the ship is turning. He did not mention a cumulative drop in emissions. Are we talking about 4% or 5%?

It is impossible to know because while the heat sector, electricity and likely agriculture are reducing, transport is likely to increase slightly - one may net off the other – but the very rough, back of the envelope calculations we were doing in the office yesterday was something in the 4% to 5% emissions reduction that we might expect. We are not at the end of the year yet, so this is purely speculative. However, it is that sort of reduction that we might expect if what we have seen so far this year continues to the end of the year. It could be larger. We do not have some of the figures for industry yet on some of the other gases and so on so it is a purely speculative number but it is the sort of ballpark I would expect at the moment.

Thank you. We go next to Deputy Murphy.

I will start on the Minister’s point that this can be done. I agree 100% that it can be done. I am not a climate doom-monger. It think it is possible. It is important not to prettify what is actually happening, however. If we want to do it, we have to deal with the actual reality and the actual reality is that in every single sector we are off track. If we continue with the plan as we have been going we will miss the targets by a significant degree. What we need to be seeing from the Minister in his capacity here in terms of the particular sectors he is responsible for, and the other Ministers we meet, is new plans and new initiatives to make up for what we are now behind on because of the failures over the past couple of years. Does the Minister accept that we cannot just continue with the plans that have been laid out or we will end up missing the targets by a great deal?

I completely accept that. The scale of the challenge should not be underestimated. It is not an easy one. There are two or three things which will help. First, the governance structures we have are serving us. I refer to the CCAC, with its recommendations and review, and the back-up information provided by the EPA, SEAI and other entities that do the modelling for us. We have a good governance structure. We will see how this works in really making corrective action but I would not change those systems. The CCAC’s review and work is very helpful in this regard.

Then there is where I see some of the significant changes that might see a further leap or jump. I was speaking on this in Dáil questions this morning. This is not to blame our planning system or legal system but we clearly have a problem in our legal system and planning system that leads to delivery of projects in a time line that is not compatible with meeting our climate targets. It is not just planning; it is administrative as well. Between the three, we have a system that takes ten years to deliver a bus lane. The Deputy would have been involved. BusConnects started 2016. We are waiting almost two years to get some of the BusConnects projects through An Bord Pleanála. That is due to very specific projects and issues in An Bord Pleanála over the past two years. That is not to blame it but it is a reality that we in the Department of Transport have been waiting. I do not want to get into that too much, but the same applies to other things.

Take wind farms. With the meeting of our renewables target, our biggest challenge is that we have a whole load of wind and solar projects in planning. When they come through the planning process, they tend to be subject to judicial review. That involves an incredibly elongated and expensive process that does not necessarily serve the public, particularly because it is so expensive and protracted. The Planning and Development Bill, the Second Stage debate on which will taken in the House next week, is critical. We can do all we can on the administrative side but if matters are completely and endlessly jammed up in the courts, then that becomes an issue. That is the constitutional separation of powers and you cannot easily turn that but I think that is our biggest problem.

Second, one thing we have been doing to try to accelerate change is developing these six task forces which we have established to deliver on the climate action plan within central government. We recognise that the latter works best when you break out of silos and bring in outside agencies. The six that I see as critical are the offshore wind, sustainable mobility, heat and the built environment, just transition, climate communications and the land use review.

I can go into the details of any one of those. I will give an example of how it can work. I have just come from a meeting of the task force on heat and built environment in the SEAI offices. It was an opportunity to bring everyone together. We made decisions this morning on our public buildings and on district heating. We had a long discussion on the issue of anaerobic digestion. Those are examples of complex projects that have taken too long.

Regarding district heating, the Poolbeg incinerator has been pumping out waste heat inefficiently for about eight years. Five or six years ago, Dublin City Council was given €20 million to try to rectify that. That was not progressing but it will now. I am confident that we will go to the procurement stage and we will see it delivered. The task force approach, where we are not just working in individual Department silos but putting together government, outside agencies and other representatives, is a key evolution or advancement since last year. Most of those task forces were not in place when we drafted the Climate Action Plan 2023 and they are all up and running now. That is a key mechanism.

I do not deny the issue with planning, administration, etc. However, the biggest obstacle we face lies with vested interests, those who profit from the current model, including agribusiness which the Minister before us today is obviously not responsible for. However, he is responsible for the big tech sector and specifically energy usage by data centres. They currently use 18% of our electricity and are on track to use 30%. These new data centres which are coming on board are massive and the eight or nine hyper data centres will use as much electricity between them as the 70 or 80 that we already have. Does the Minister accept that if we continue on that trajectory of more and more data centres using more and more electricity and fossil fuels directly, with gas, it makes it implausible for us to electrify, meaning that we will need to electrify other parts of the economy and to shift to renewables? If we take the high-growth scenario of EirGrid, a 500% growth in electricity demand from data centres this decade would require a quadrupling of renewable electricity generation. All of that is then used by the data centres. If we are serious about meeting our electricity targets, which is the Minister's responsibility, the simplest, easiest and most rational thing to do is to decide we have had enough of data centres and focus on shifting to renewables and trying to bring our usage down, where possible.

The advantage of this approach where each sector has to play its part is that no one gets an out. On entering government in the summer of 2020, it became apparent that we had a very large volume of data centres which were looking for connection and had been approved. We identified that we would have difficulty if we keep saying "Yes". First, we would not have the power to be able to service them or give the grid connections. Second, it would make it impossible for us to meet our emissions reductions targets. Along with EirGrid and the ESB, and with the involvement of the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment, we very quickly said we had to stop issuing new contracts or new connections.

The Government does not breach existing commitments. Where we had told a company it was in a process towards being able to develop, we do not reverse engines on that. That is not how the State works, and to my mind that is correct. However, I subsequently wrote to Gas Networks Ireland making the very strong case and giving clear direction that we cannot continue to offer new gas grid connections because we need to switch to a new way of managing, operating and delivering our data centres. I think we can do so in a way that they play their part in meeting our emissions reductions targets, but also providing many benefits for our economy. We have significant employment. Many of the companies involved in running data centres are based in my constituency with tens of thousands of people employed.

Is the Minister saying that tens of thousands of people are employed in the data centres?

No, but tens of thousands of people are employed in the companies associated with those data centres. The data centres are the core of their business. These are all cloud-based companies now. That the cloud-based companies are here is a significant reason for other investments coming here. We have been working with the companies on the basis that any new data centres will have to live within a system where we can provide the power and the grid connections. That has been a constraint issue in the last two years. We are starting to address it with emergency power generation, new renewables coming on stream and new interconnection, all of which will help. Critically, it is to design and develop data centres that are zero-carbon. There needs to be a combination of use of renewable power, use of flexible demand and use of waste heat. For example, I believe Tallaght is using an Amazon data centre to heat some of the buildings in south Dublin. We should go further in that and look at all the flexibilities that will be needed so that data centres can empirically show they are part of the solution and not part of the problem. I think that is possible.

The country benefits not just by having the data centres here but also the Irish companies that build, service and run them are highly advanced. We are probably one of the most advanced countries in the world in building and running data centres. We should not turn our back on that. However, we should develop and will develop the expertise to do it in a zero-carbon way which is where that industry is going. No industry can get an out. Those companies cannot be in operation in ten years' time if they are not meeting the scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions targets. Why should we not look to become a world leader in that next stage of data centre development? It will take a number of years to build up that capability, get the grid connections and in particular have the power security in renewables to be able to service it. However, that demand management flexibility is key and the use of waste heat is key. The use of the backup services they have to support our grid is where we will go.

This new industrial revolution is a digital and clean energy one. The two go together. The balance in capability between variable supply and variable demand is delivered by use of those digital networks. I see us having a real advantage by being good at that. There is no open door. No new data centres have been approved in the last three years in my time in government. However, we are working with the companies to start looking at a future where that can be done in a way that is in line with our climate obligations.

I may contribute again later.

I share the Minister's positive approach. It is good that we are on track to deliver our effort-sharing commitment to the 42% reduction, taking into account a lower level of offsets. That is a significant milestone. It is short of what we set out in our legislation but it is a significant step forward and there are very positive trends there.

There is huge potential for Ireland to deliver renewable energy on a much wider scale. Representatives from the Climate Change Advisory Council recently appeared before the committee. They were pretty withering in saying some of the things the Minister has already touched on. We really need the spatial planning guidelines and the guidelines on onshore wind. I know planning delays have dogged many of our ambitions. There is also the regulatory treatment of battery storage. Those are things we should be able to move along. Quite surprisingly, the CCAC talked about how other countries are asserting overriding national interest to push through and overcome some of the planning obstacles. That has many risks but it shows how they are thinking about the urgency of this versus the planning constraints.

While we had a successful offshore auction, the subsequent RESS has not been so successful. There have been suggestions from some quarters that that indicates the market is cooling off in its enthusiasm to be part of the Irish model.

We need to hear more about that. I am looking forward to the loan scheme that is going to help people deliver retrofits. A key piece will be the interest rate. I think the ambition is that, between the grants and the loans, people can pay for the entire thing from the savings they generate, or that is the sort of model the Minister has articulated. Can we get to that? It could be a potential game-changer.

I would be interested to hear how we are going to push through on district heating. The Minister said he felt there was a breakthrough there.

On mobility hubs, it seems a very practical thing that we could have in our city and it will promote the idea of sharing vehicles using public transport and active transport from these hubs. That is something I would like to see accelerated as one of the measures that pick up speed in some of our areas. It is disheartening that, even now, the four Dublin local authorities have not yet delivered their procurement for EV charging capacity. We have a lot of estates across the city, including in my own area, for which EV charging is not going to be practical because of the configuration of the homes. They need public space EV chargers.

We heard presentations that we should be looking at the weight of cars, as well as CO2 and so on. Has the Minister given any thought to that? The huge penetration of very heavy SUVs into the motor market is perverse. Can we do anything to incentivise change?

There are quite a few points and I will try to deal with them all. I will pick up on the two points on vehicles and retrofits as examples of where progress is possible. In both cases, we are ahead of target. Although I do not have the exact final figure, more than 37,000 houses will be retrofitted this year, which is ahead of what was planned. The low-interest loans which will kick in during January and February next year will further bolster that because it will open up the grant system to those who are not currently eligible for the warmer homes scheme. I do not see that stopping. The key thing that we have to learn is that it must not be stop-start and we have to build up the supply chain, which has been the biggest constraint, for example, with regard to getting the contractors. Retrofitting is a very good example of that.

With regard to the weight of cars, there will be heavier cars coming because the electric cars are coming and they are also heavy, but they are heavy in a different way to the large SUVs. We are now at about 28% for plug-in, 21% for full EV and 7% or 8% for plug-in hybrids. Again, I do not see that reversing. We are ahead of the UK, which is our nearest and most obvious competitor. We will have to look at the tax issue next October. One of the things I will be saying to the Minister for Finance is that we need to consider the emissions of an SUV over the ten to 15 years of its lifetime, apart from the safety issues. We need to consider what is the cost to the Exchequer if we do not meet our European commitments and targets as we would have to pay for closing the gap through statistical transfers with other countries if we do not meet our effort-sharing agreement. I hope that may change the Department of Finance's view in terms of continuing where we have been going, which is to tax more for the high-polluting and less for the non-polluting. The economic case for that becomes all the stronger when we realise that an SUV running for 15 years is costing the Irish public in terms of its emissions, which may be above target, and therefore, that may justify ongoing revisions to our tax system, which I think the Deputy is suggesting. However, that is part of the budget process and we will have to agree it in October next year.

The Deputy mentioned the transport issue. One of the mechanisms we have to help us is the use of the climate action fund. The Deputy was there as Minister and he gave the first allocation to the district heating scheme, with €20 million to the ESB and others, and it has since built up. There are a number of projects that I believe are best funded through the climate action fund, and included in that is the widespread deployment of mobility hubs - I understand the Deputy has a similar perspective. The only example so far was the one delivered by Dublin City Council in Finglas about a year and a half ago, and it is an e-car and e-bike sharing system. There is a great benefit to be had from this. We are not just going to replace every combustion engine car with an electric car as we would still have congestion problems and we would be trading an import dependency on oil and gas for an import dependency on rare batteries, minerals and so on. Moving towards promoting car sharing as a concept is a key part of where we need to go, and one of the projects we will launch next year is the mobility hub concept spread out much more widely. It will probably start in cities, and we will probably start in one city and then develop and deploy it, and use the climate action fund to support that. Hopefully, we can create a model whereby car sharing becomes a much more convenient and cheaper option for people to have mobility.

The Deputy asked why we are not seeing the level of renewables that we want and expect. I would give three reasons or three issues that we need to address. The first is the planning issue. To answer the question as to why we got a lower number of successful projects through the latest RESS auction, the main reason is that we have not got anything through planning so there are no projects ready to go into an auction process. As soon as they come through, it will happen. The whole idea with these auctions is to have them regularly so we reduce the capital risk and, therefore, reduce the cost. I am confident that as soon as we get projects through the planning system, we will get them into an auction system. That is probably the first and most critical key constraint.

There is also a grid constraint. We have a real challenge in both the ESB and EirGrid in being able to scale up the level of grid upgrades that are needed. It is huge and unprecedented, both in terms of connecting to offshore wind and the major transmission upgrades going right down to the local level. The ESB has a very good plan where it is looking at local 10 kV substations to put in battery storage so we get local flexibility and the capability of having an adaptive grid.

I think both the ESB and EirGrid are on the right track for shaping our electricity future and their plan for the future design of the grid is the right one. They have optimised a lot of the existing grid. For example, with offshore, rather than it being developer-led, where we just chase wherever developers think they want to put in the wind farms, we instead used the designated maritime area plan, DMAP, process to say that they will bid in a certain area because that is where we can optimise the grid and reduce the amount of onshore grid reinforcement that we have to do. Similarly, they are shaping our electricity future by looking at the midlands as a potential location, particularly where we might look at hubs where we put together very efficient use of energy systems, thereby putting the use close to the renewable source and close to the grid. In shaping our electricity future, the ESB strategies are the right ones. However, everyone in the industry and elsewhere would admit that it needs to accelerate.

The third thing that needs to accelerate within our Department concerns the policy areas. We have done some very good policy work recently; the energy security package that we delivered two weeks ago was first class and it is similar with the hydrogen strategy, and so on. I constantly say to civil servants that, having delivered that, we now need to deliver the next thing, and the two on the top of my list would be storage and private wires. I know some people are critical and sceptical of private wires; they say it has never been done that way and they ask why we would change our ways. One of the reasons I am keen to do it is due to the scale of renewables that we need. I think we could quite quickly ramp up both storage and renewables generation close to industry, which would help to embed industry here and be part of a balancing system. Within our Department, I think those two policy areas are two of the clear priorities that we need to develop and deliver. I accept that is not a complete answer to the Deputy’s question.

I will point to one thing that we have learned from the offshore auctions. I think we got the offshore auctions right in terms of the price, given the inflation that existed in the market and the uncertainty. We have seen our neighbours in the UK not getting an auction out.

On the other side of the Atlantic, New York, which is quite similar to us, is getting auctions through but the projects are unlikely to be built. Our projects will be built, subject to planning timelines. Part of the reason for that is we took on the risk of the curtailment and constraint. That risk lies better with the State than with the developer. The question now for the State is how we use the approximately 13 TW hours of surplus renewable electricity we will have by the end of the decade. That is an industrial policy issue in terms of how we create the flexibility in our pricing and market systems to use that power. We can do it. It is technical, but it is the centre of the revolution.

In the context of guidelines for offshore wind, they seem to be waiting forever-----

My apologies. I forgot to address that issue. The Deputy is correct. We have had difficulty with the guidelines for onshore wind in particular. He will be aware there was a significant amount of difficulty between the Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage and the Department of the Environment and Climate Action. Historically, there were different views on that. We ended up with a solution that was not workable in terms of the application of the WHO guidelines. It was not technically feasible in the context of the way they were drafted. We have a changed approach that will be delivered next year. We need to integrate our regional plans and local authority development plans with our renewable energy and shaping electricity plans. That integration of renewables into the local authority development plans will be one of the other key developments next year.

I thank the Minister. Deputy Bruton also asked about low-cost loans and district heating, but I want to be fair to colleagues and bring them in. I do not doubt they, too, will have questions on those areas.

I thank the Minister for his opening remarks. As regards data centres, I am slightly concerned that the Minister stated he wants to get them to the stage that they are net zero. Achieving that will be a major difficulty. How does the Minister propose to ensure it will happen? Data centres are major consumers of power. It would be wonderful to get them to net zero if that can be done. Does it mean the technical companies that are involved in data centres will be investing in renewable energy as part of the payback in respect of that? How will it work?

On retrofitting, I acknowledge the Minister stated the new low-cost loan scheme will soon be in place. I and most other Deputies are aware that large numbers of our constituents are eager to go down that path but one of the issues is that it is very difficult to find contractors. Even when there is a low-cost loan coming up and people can get a grant, it will be a number of years, certainly in my part of the world, before they will be able to get a contractor in to do the work, which is sometimes on a large scale.

On data centres, it is an application of a range of different solutions. I will address the biggest concept in this regard. Let us say there is a weather system coming in over the Atlantic. Obviously, wind follows that across the Atlantic to the west coast of Ireland, the Irish Sea, the UK, the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and so on. I can see a world evolving where data centres that are on the front where electricity is strongest, lowest cost and cleanest are the ones that are utilised most at that time. One matches the demand to where the power is. That sophistication in terms of the ability to use energy where the renewable power is available will be key. It will require good fibre-optic network and connectivity but also scale of planning. It will even come down to the ability of the data centre to be flexible in its management of its heat load and so on. That will involve each data centre having a clear power purchase agreement for renewable zero-carbon power. It will not always be the data centre buying a wind turbine or wind farm in County Donegal and powering it across. It will be much more sophisticated than that, down to almost half-hour matching, where one can show one is delivering 100% renewable zero-carbon power to run the system.

As I stated, the waste heat issue is another example of where data centres can help to provide a part of the solution. Many of the data centres are based in west Dublin. There is probably an overconcentration of them in that area. Another part of this is them going to points on the grid where there is a much stronger grid and renewables may be available. It goes back to the idea of co-location. One could consider the development of a hybrid renewables data centre in the midlands or another area where it would be much easier to do the zero carbon than it would in west Dublin, where there is such a concentration. There is nothing wrong with west Dublin but, as there is a concentration there, we could consider whether we could do James Connolly Memorial Hospital in Blanchardstown or the other projects we know we have to decarbonise as a public sector obligation. It is about seeking to use that data centre capability in west Dublin or other parts of the country to meet other energy needs. It is not any one mechanism. Rather, it is a variety of applications.

There is also the issue of data centres using their back-up facilities. One cannot shut down a data centre. That is key. There is a requirement for 210kV connections and super-secure fibre connections. Backup power is required in the event of a power cut or other mechanisms. There is a need for backup systems. Using those to enhance and support the grid is another way in which data centres can contribute to the low-carbon solution. Some of their backup systems could be used to help support the grid at times when there is low wind but high demand. That is already happening but I am talking about doing it in a much more advanced and sophisticated way. The range of different mechanisms can become part of the solution.

With regard to contractors, the Deputy is correct. The biggest constraint is contractors. That is not just the case for householders. I spoke to several of the one-stop shops recently. It is really working. We have 17 one-stop shops now and they are flying. Their order books are full for next year. The biggest challenge is the lack of availability of contractors. The one-stop shops are scouring the country for anyone with capability in engineering or plumbing. What the Minister, Deputy Harris, is doing to provide apprenticeships and scale that up is working. We are getting young people into it. One has to be predictable in this regard. This industry suffered more than any other else from the stop-start approach that was in place previously. It used to be the case that the SEAI would get its budget allocation and then go out early in the new year and say they have got this much for the next six or eight months. They would start work in March or April, work to October and then wait for the next budget and see what happens. They would lay people off for six months and then start again. That is what killed the industry. The benefit of the carbon tax, more than anything else, is that we know the income for retrofitting will go up every year no matter what happens in the budget. Of the carbon tax, 55% is going to retrofitting through the warmer homes scheme for the poorest households on the lowest income, and it keeps going up every year. It is outside the budget process and the contractors know they can start training workers now because there will be customers for their work in one, two or five years’ time. That is starting to work.

An issue I raised previously is that of offshore wind and the delays in that regard. It is seen as being the golden ticket if we can get it right and get it done. Where are we at in that regard? How much more frustration will there be? The various companies have told us they feel frustrated in trying to get this moving along.

We are not in a bad place in the sense that the companies we have got through the auction are serious about investing here. We will deliver on this. The question is time, and time is important. That largely relies on the planning process. I attended a meeting of the North Seas Energy Cooperation in the Hague the week before last. It is very good to share notes with colleagues who are doing the same thing. Antonella Battaglini of the Renewables Grid Initiative presented at the meeting and made the valid point that good environmental planning is the key thing to get right, involving stakeholders, local communities and environmental NGOs. The best way one can accelerate projects is if the State delivers a lot of the background environmental data one needs to get through the planning process and make sure the environment is not being hindered. This is a real challenge in other countries and we need to learn from what they have done.

From the State's perspective, we must ask what the key thing is we need to do. We need to provide the skills within the National Parks and Wildlife Service, the Maritime Area Regulatory Authority, MARA, and the marine environment planning unit with the Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage in order that they can deliver. It will not just be them. Our own Department has a key role. We have been using INFOMAR within our Department to measure the seabed over the past 12 years. I see that evolving to where we will not just be providing data on the seabed but the ecology, habitat, substructure and so on in order that the developers can use this. Remember that we have an underlying advantage here because the resource is stronger. We have a very windy location. If we get the environmental planning right, we will see the industry develop here. That combined with getting the transfer of power through interconnectors and devising the industrial policy for how we use the power will see us really succeeding. It is the environmental standards and data and delivering that from the State. This, again, is the reason we go towards a State-led approach rather than a development-led approach. There is much turbulence as we switch from one to the other. It is that environmental data, however. I was asked what the key thing is at a meeting subsequent to the North Seas Countries' Offshore Grid Initiative meeting in Europe last week. Environmental planning is the key thing for us to get right.

The Minister mentioned that one of the biggest challenges we have is the upgrading of the grid. Is that because we are putting so much emphasis on large-scale renewables as opposed to other options? Solar is an option. Many people are trying to get in on that and are using it in their homes. Smaller businesses are using it as well. Do we need to have as many grid upgrades if we push more in that direction? Would it be faster to deliver?

We will need both microgeneration and large-scale. It is interesting how things change. Had the Deputy asked me ten or 15 years ago whether I thought small-scale wind had a future, I would have said "Yes". Now, the answer is "Yes", but only in very isolated areas or certain inaccessible places where the wind is very strong. The reality is that larger turbines are so much more efficient and that is why the industry has gone towards that direction. It means we have fewer turbines and that helps from an environmental perspective.

We are now up to approximately 800 MW of solar already. Had the Deputy told me ten years ago we would put in 800 MW like we did in the past year and a half, I might not have believed him. That is phenomenal. We will deliver up to 5 GW in the next few years. Solar comes in two forms. There are real efficiencies. Larger solar farms are more efficient and economic, so we will see those. We will also see microgeneration. The numbers of households getting solar panels put on their roofs are flying, so to speak. It is the same with businesses.

There is a real issue on the politics of this that we develop community energy. Deputy O'Rourke, who is sitting beside Deputy Kenny, was at the event organised by the European Commission about empowering citizens. It is really important we see more community energy. We have not developed that as much as I would like. We have certain projects that got through the renewable energy support scheme, RESS, system but they are such a challenge, particularly on the grid. Their ability to access the grid is a real constraint. One of the developments that will be coming in the next month or two is a support price for community power up to 5 MW. That will be a step change in terms of seeing some of those community projects being developed. We need both, but we cannot say no to the big projects because one of the advantages is that they bring the price down. There is an issue of affordability. We have to make sure the public get electricity that is not so expensive. Therefore, I do not think we can say that we cannot have any big wind turbines. We would have to explain to the public then why they are paying high electricity bills.

Will the grid capacity delay the delivery of the big wind turbines?

That is why Shaping our Electricity Future is the right plan because that points to where the new developments need to take place. It is grid led, not developer led. I do not think that is the developers' plan. They are not building a huge grid for the sake of it. They have actually pared back much of what their plans were. Ironically, in the Dáil Chamber a few weeks ago, TDs from the north west were decrying that we do not have enough interconnection. That has proven difficult in recent years. EirGrid has scaled back a lot of its plans to try to be really efficient because we have scarce building resources.

I thank the Minister and Deputy Kenny. I call Deputy Whitmore.

I want to bring it back to basics a little bit. I appreciate the Minister is talking about problems with delivering on climate action. I understand there are a number of significant challenges in that regard. I also do not want to undermine the work that has been done and the fact there has been progress in some areas.

I want to bring it back to the Climate Action Plan 2023, however, which is essentially a document that sets the pathway for Ireland to meet its emissions targets by 2030. It is the place where all the plans and policies of Government are collated that will enable it to deal with the actions that will be undertaken to meet those targets. What we have heard repeatedly from the Environmental Protection Agency, EPA, is that the climate action plan itself is not ambitious enough. The policies detailed with the climate action plan will not be enough for us to meet our targets. This is nothing to do with deliverability. This is assuming 100% delivery of each of those policies, which we know is going to be challenge, and that even if every single one of those policies were delivered, the climate action plan would still only represent a 29% reduction in climate emissions versus the 51% we require. Last year, a similar analysis foresaw that it would only be 28%. We are not, therefore, seeing a huge amount of movement with each iteration of these climate action plans. This is the question for the Minister. We will have another climate action plan shortly. Will the policies outlined in that climate action plan add up to a 51% reduction? What are the additional policies that will be incorporated in order for us to meet that 51%?

I will make one point with regard to the broad approach we are taking in coming back to the legislation, to which Deputy Whitmore is right to bring us back. One of the issues within the legislation under section 14A(1) is that this process needs also to deliver some specific responses in a variety of different sectoral areas. Rather than reading those out, if it is agreeable to the Chair, we can always review this if it is an issue with process. I might present those in written format to make sure we are all in compliance with the law and that we respect what we legislatively agreed to years ago to specifically respond to some of the different sectoral areas as well as answering the Deputy's question now. Is it okay to do that in written format?

That is okay. I thank the Minister.

It will be a short note with the same speaking points I would have read out.

With regard to ambition and the overall structure of where we are and where we are going, one of the key issues I alluded or referred to was that we had a real challenge with land use emissions, which are a significant part of our emissions. The challenge became apparent in the drafting of the Climate Action Plan 2023 because we were trying to assess what was possible, what the reductions were and so on. At the time, our net land use emissions, and members might correct me if I am wrong, were approximately 4.8 million tonnes of source emissions from land use in total. We then discovered the science had changed. It was almost even a month or two before we were drafting the final version. We were getting scientific advice from the EPA and other scientific bodies that, because of the nature of where our forestry had been planted, our land use emissions were likely to be at 11 million tonnes by 2030. That is from memory. I could be incorrect on those figures but the broad point is made. On the clear-felling of the forest that was due to take place, the fact the locations were on peaty soils meant our land use emissions were significantly different from what they were originally. We said we needed to hold on a second to get to the bottom of this. One year later, it is probably even more complicated because it is not just on forestry that the science is uncertain but also the science in terms of grassland management and wetland management.

Some of it is clear, and we will really scale up and ramp up certain things. I refer to things like the rehabilitation of bogs, which is of huge benefit and relatively low cost. We are delivering 30,000 ha already. Therefore, some of the science says to absolutely go ahead with that to the maximum. However, some of the other areas in terms of what exactly is happening with grassland management and peaty soils are very disputed or there is a variability with the baseline figures with which we are working.

There is a 30% variability in what the baseline is and will continue to be until some of these underlying scientific issues are assessed and measured. It has not been decided yet how we will manage that. It has to go to Government, and obviously the climate action plan will address some of it. We have to treat this in a different manner. For the likes of the electricity and heating sectors, the statistical basis on which we are working is solid. One of the first things we do is address that issue within the climate action plan. That has not been agreed by Government yet, so I will have to await that. It will be moving towards an activity based process, because then we are measuring the activity and the reductions rather than relying on a baseline which continues to move. That is the broad principle.

Am I correct in saying then, even if that was incorporated, the EPA analysis said it will still only meet 42% of the 51%?

I do not have the answer to that because I do not know what baseline figure the measure was assessed from. The EPA would have had a similar problem to us. If the baseline keeps moving, then measuring in that way becomes difficult and it is complicated, is the message I get back.

The science is variable and very complex, and we still have a target of 51%. That target is not going to change regardless of the complexity of achieving it.

If the climate action plan cannot put a percentage reduction or policies in place to represent a percentage of reduction in emissions to 2030 for certain sectors, is it not the case that the remainder of the policy should be making up that 51%?

That is something we would have to do in the allocation of the black box. We could look at a mechanism to close the gap, depending on what that gap is, and that in itself may vary. The exact management of this will have to be worked out. As I said, it is an iterative process. At the very start or, if I recall rightly, even in the programme for Government back in 2020, we could see some of the complexity. I do not recall the exact wording but we included a provision in the programme for Government recognising that we would have to have some flexibility here, that this was not a two-plus-two accounting exercise, and that we are dealing both in the technological solutions and in the science of what is possible. I think we cited the Danish approach to setting targets and setting ourselves a vision.

That is a considerable amount of flexibility though, if we are saying that our policies will meet 29% when we have to meet 51% That is not flexibility.

No one is saying 29%. That is if we do not go further.

That is what the EPA has said the current action plan specifies.

We have to go beyond. We have to go for 51% but we have to do so in a way that recognises that the science on what is happening in land use in particular is varying and the baseline changes. We have to have some flexibility on how we manage that.

Will the climate action plan be finalised at the end of this month?

What additional emissions reductions will be incorporated? When the EPA does its analysis next June, will we be looking at another percentage point difference, up to 30% of the 51% following the changes to climate action plan, or does the Minister anticipate that we could be potentially up to 35% or 40%? What percentage reduction will the next climate action plan achieve?

I mentioned some of the additional measures we may look at such as rail freight. Some will be involved in delivering what we have committed to, such as the hydrogen strategy, which I do not think was published in the CAP 23. That is an example of a technological development. Another one is the role of food additives. I am now going away from my own sectoral emission areas a bit but that will be something for Government to decide. Each sectoral Minister will be responsible for those rather than it being my immediate call.

In my area, carbon capture and storage will be important. I will give an example of somewhere it might be possible to go further. I visited the Poolbeg incinerator recently. Not only do we need to tap in the waste heat to heat the offices along the quays, Georgian Dublin and the National Maternity Hospital, but also technological developments mean a carbon capture system could be installed at Poolbeg. I know carbon capture and storage is controversial. It will be the subject of a lot of debate in Dubai, at the climate negotiations. It is not an opt out for the fossil fuel industry. In Ireland's case, additional measures like carbon capture and storage which might be applied to the cement industry or to incinerators give significant additional chunks of carbon reduction. These types of technological measures, as well as addressing the land use, land use change and forestry, LULUCF, issue and the sectoral emission allocations, which will incorporate some of those technological solutions, is where there will be variation in the climate action plan 2024.

So carbon capture and storage will probably be a component of the 2004 plan.

Yes, as an example of a measure we will have to consider. That might become something we would look to incorporate in a revision of the second budget of the sectoral emissions ceilings which is from 2026 to 2030. There will be a process where we would assess those options and come to agreement on them in time for them to be set into the climate budget for 2026 onwards.

I thank the Minister for being here. I made the point about the climate action plan coming out from the Bill that, whatever our criticisms of the contents or the policy decisions, the fact we have it is probably as good a measure of progress as there is in many of these institutions. It is an important feature and to be commended and welcomed.

I want to pick up on a point Deputy Bruton made about planning. After questions on foreign affairs, we will go on to Second Stage of the planning legislation which is huge and complex.

We have already pointed out the challenges in the formal planning system regarding planners, environmental NGOs and notifiable bodies and both sides of these considerations. There were provisions in the renewables directive that almost gave a green light for the fast-tracking of renewables projects, and there are risks associated with that. Other countries have taken a different approach. Can I get a sense of where that is going? Is Ireland going to employe any of those opportunities or licences?

I ask about the planning Bill that is going through the Houses, the resourcing of the planning system, and the regional renewable spatial plans that are due to be ready. I believe they are already late at this stage.

I also raise the issue of maximising the potential the grid and the hybrid policy, given that hybrid connections were mentioned in the energy security review.

The Deputy is correct to focus on these elements. This is complicated because we have our national targets and our national legislative system, but we are also doing something similar in a European system where we have effort-sharing. Not only that, we also have the 20 pieces, I think it is now, of the European Fit for 55 legislation that will drive so much of this and place so many requirements on us.

Included in the renewable energy directive, as I recall, is that within 18 months of it being transposed, we will have to do the acceleration maps to show how we will meet it. The EU fundamentally sees it being a digital, green and renewable future and it wants every country to try to accelerate that. The regional authorities will have a key role in that, as the Deputy said, and they have a role working with the local authorities to work out those regional plans around how the local development plans have to be adjusted to give us the clear guidelines. That work is ongoing and to be concluded for first or second quarter next year. I am going on memory here now. Next year there is a timeline for us to start delivering it. There is a similar timeframe, I understand, for the issue of hyper-connection, which I very much support. This goes back to what I said earlier about where we can put it to different uses. It is not just wind and solar together. One can also look at other uses close to the development. That is a matter for the Commission for Regulation of Utilities, CRU, to deliver. It has it broken down into three parts of the work-stream and is working with EirGrid and with the system operators. It has submitted proposals to CRU and expects it to make a decision very shortly on us being able to deliver that.

I will go back to make one last point on what is happening in Europe. I spoke to Deputy Whitmore about environment being the key constraint and there is a real challenge in how we integrate the scaled development of renewables and other technologies to meet our climate targets, the existing European Union habitats and water frameworks, and other environmental legislation. It is a real challenge and the EU has recognised that. This is why the whole new legislative package is coming through so that we do not trip ourselves up, as it were. With offshore wind we must be sensitive to seabird populations to take one example. We must also consider the quality of the marine floor and the ecology there. It cites a whole range of different environmental challenges. I am hearing from European Union colleagues who are already further advanced on this. It may not be that there is a complete yes or no or black and white situation where one cannot do anything there. We may be able to use and develop technology. If, for instance, there is an area where seabird activities are critical at certain times of the day or the year with migratory patterns, we would switch off the turbines. The technology could be adjusted for nature. This gives greater flexibility to deploy the technology. It is not the case that we need to have such blanket restrictions. Similarly, I give the example that one of the most challenging aspects could be forestry. It is interesting. I met Commissioner Sinkevičius in the summer and discussed the development of our new forestry programme. There is recognition of the real challenges and conflicting interests between - let us say - the curlew and other marshland or wetland bird species, or between other farmland bird life, which is very much a threatened species. How we develop our forestry model is going to have to get this balance right. It is going to have to be an adaptive system that allows us restore nature but also meet our climate targets. Sometimes they will compete and getting the balance right on that is probably the most complicated and challenging thing we have to do.

I will make one point and then I have a follow on question in the area of residential heat. The Minister spoke about CAP 24 being very similar to CAP 23. In the area of residential heat, for our part, Sinn Féin has spoken about the opportunities, and others are in exactly the same place as we can see from the partnership on climate change and sustainable energy, CCSE, from Friends of the Earth and from others. There are opportunities and a necessity in the context of local authority homes and retrofitting for homes that use solid fuels such as turf and coal. There is opportunity in recognising that workforce is an issue in this regard, and in looking at aggregating and taking an area-based approach. Fingal County Council has an ongoing pilot and there is opportunity to significantly expand that. I will leave this with the Minister.

Heat pumps and heat pump delivery is also an area that has been identified. I have looked at the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland, SEAI, energy projection out to 2030, which document was published this month. Any of us dealing with this in this space for the past number of years are dealing with people who have had heat pumps installed. There are challenges around the homes that are appropriate and can take a heat pump. A heat loss indicator study is ongoing. There is also the challenge of the economics of a heat pump. It is acknowledged by SEAI that for many people heat pumps can be very expensive to run compared to fossil fuels. Will CAP 24 contain anything new for heat pump delivery either in supports or alternative options there?

I am just getting some advice from my Department officials here. It is tricky sometimes in committee when the civil servants cannot speak at all. I do not know why the rules are such. I do not want to bring the committee into private session.

The Minister can do that if he wishes.

Sometimes I believe we are too restrictive. I will not challenge that but it is good to hear from the civil servants sometimes because they do have the expertise.

On the broader point, we are ahead of target on the retrofitting targets. The warmer homes scheme is 100% grant funded for those on low incomes. The main criteria for that scheme is that the applicants are entitled to the fuel allowance. There were some 6,000 homes upgraded this year. This is very significant. Priority is given to those in houses that have the really worst BER rating, in the E, F or G categories. That tends to then target those who are using solid fuels because typically there would be a correlation between people with very poor BER rating for their home and the use of less efficient heating systems. There is huge demand for that not scheme. This is not surprising because it is 100% paid for. The scheme is working with some 6,000 homes upgraded in 2023. The Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage is responsible for the social housing stock. I believe it is due to do to 2,000 houses this year. I would love to see that figure go up every year. That is a matter for the budget allocation. One of the real things we need to do is look at how we aggregate and maybe mix between public and private, social housing other housing. If one is going into an estate-----

I believe this is what Fingal County Council is doing with the pilot it has there.

That does make sense because the cost comes down, be the homes private, social, owned by the council or owned by the citizen. We must look at how we do it.

There are some 3,000 heat pumps going in under the grant system this year. We need to see that accelerating. This is one figure that is not going up as fast as I would like. We need to really push that. The July study referred to was the first of a pilot test where SEAI was looking at where setting of the standards was too rigid for when a house would benefit from a heat pump. Typically, they went very high in building and energy efficiency ratings. That study has started now. My officials tell me - and this is where the detail is useful - that we will have to wait until next year to see the results of it because one must look at a full year and have a full year analysis to assess how it has worked. From the people I would respect and listen to on this, my sense is that we need to be slightly more flexible. The benefit of heat pumps is so real and it is clear at this stage that they are the best technology for the Irish climate for a house that has a good level of insulation. They are the best heat, the lowest maintenance, and easiest to operate.

There are huge advantages with the use of heat pumps. We need to scale that up. We need to multiply the number of heat pumps going in.

I would encourage the Minister and the SEAI. There is logic in the approach of an energy-efficient home and putting in a heat pump in terms of the efficiency of the heat pump. There is a risk, if one reduces that standard, that the heat pump is more inefficient and more costly to run. I make the point - it is not only me making it - that we have to keep an eye on cost in relation to heat pumps in terms of making them an attractive proposition. There is a number of levers that are at Government's disposal in relation to that. They need to be considered.

I will make one point on that, if I can. I agree fully with Deputy O'Rourke. The reason heat pumps are so attractive is, first, one gets a really gentle, warm heat. It gives us flexibility. We will go into a world where heat pumps will turn on and off based on what the electricity price is and allow us some of that balancing capability around renewable power.

Going back to what I mentioned about the European legislation defining much of what we are doing, one of the really challenging pieces of European legislation was the energy efficiency directive - the final energy use. There, we face a real challenge because it is a flat figure and our population is growing. Going back to what I said in my earliest contribution, our economy is growing rapidly and how one gets overall energy use down is really challenging. One of the benefits, in industrial heat as well as in domestic heat, one gets from heat pumps is the efficiency gain. This incredible simple technology, where one is drawing outside air through the back of the radiator, effectively, of the fridge, with the temperature variation leading to that gas changing which allows one to draw down the energy heat from a heat exchange to heat one's radiators and heat one's water tank, is a 300% or 400% improvement in efficiency. If we can do that at scale, that gives us a reduction in the total energy use while providing the same services for the households. There are so many benefits from it but the massive efficiency gain that will help us meet our energy efficiency targets is one of the reasons heat pumps are so important.

I might pick up on Deputy O'Rourke's line of questioning with respect to heat. If we need to go into private session, we can do that because the Minister's officials might be best placed to answer. By the way, I am advised by the clerk to the committee that privilege only extends to the Minister, as the guest, and not to his guests who he has brought in. That is why we would have to go into private session to speak directly with the officials.

One of the actions in last year's climate action plan was to publish the national heat policy statement in Q3 of this year. We do not have it yet and we do not know when the public consultation on that might be. That is a critically important piece of work given the challenge of heat in decarbonising our economy. Good work was done last year by the SEAI in its national heat study and this was the follow on from that. Where are we with that?

A detailed roadmap for accelerating the phase-out of fossil-fuel heating in all buildings was promised in last year's climate action plan and that is due in Q4 of this year. If we are on target, it would be in the next few weeks. Where are we with that? Will it include an end date for the installation of oil and gas boilers in new buildings and also in buildings that are undergoing warmer homes scheme retrofits?

I think I have sufficient information from my officials to not have to go into private session but we can come back on any of the details at a later stage as well.

First, on how the country is doing, I said some areas were doing well. Historically, where we have been poorest was in the heat area. We were good at renewable electricity. We were not as good in renewable heat and in meeting our heat targets.

That heat policy will be now, unfortunately, a couple of months later. It will be the end of quarter 1. It will be informed by the heat study, which has been concluded. That work now has to be translated into policy but it will be delivered by the end of quarter 1 next years.

The issue in terms of ending fossil fuel in all new buildings will be, in particular, informed by the energy performance of buildings directive, which, as I recall, has just completed trilogue. We are going to have to look at that. The reality is 92% of new buildings are not using fossil-fuel heating. We need to get rid of that remaining 8% but we will be very much informed by the European Union policy direction on that because it is best to operate in conjunction with the wider economy - supply chains are variable. It is the way to go.

There are a couple of things I would say in terms of heat. I see electrification of everything being the real key, particularly in heat. Sometimes one hears people, for example, our neighbours, talk of hydrogen being a heat solution for a domestic or a smaller scale and I do not see that happening for a variety of reasons. Similarly, there is much debate on and consideration of whether we could use hydrogenated vegetable oil, HVO, and in a sense maintain a boiler system using that. There, I would urge real caution because we know in the transport sector, which is the biggest challenge, as I said. We will make real progress on heat because the economic efficiencies and benefits of the alteratives are so much better but transport is really tricky. There is only a limited amount of HVO available from waste sources or absolutely cast-iron certain sustainable, not land use destructive, sources and that limited supply is best deployed in transport rather than in heat.

The last thing I would say, and to go back to what gives me a certain confidence we can make a change, is that I was at an industrial event yesterday, the eHeat conference. Much of the industrial heat we use, not intense 200°C plus for furnaces or really intense manufacturing systems, for any temperatures below 120°C, for example, for steam cleaning, drying, the dairying industry or cleansing systems for the food or pharma industry, etc., where one has heat temperatures of anything under 150°C, I see switching to heat pump. I see that as an inevitability. We will further support that. We will be developing grant supports and really incentivising and supporting the SSRH - the scheme to deploy commercial heat solutions. It is not only about the homes. It is also about the factories and the larger public buildings. It is all three we need to address.

This committee had a briefing from eHeat Ireland during the year. It was very interesting. There were some very specific asks. No doubt it is engaged with the Department as well but it argued that there should be supports for industry to help electrify heat production in that sector.

On the warmer homes scheme, we are still seeing oil and gas boilers being installed under the warmer homes scheme. What is the plan to get away from that because if we are doing this, we are locking in fossil-fuel systems for some of our most vulnerable population?

We have another pilot which is looking at how we do that. We will have to end the use of fossil fuels, particularly in schemes that we are supporting. We have to be careful we do that in a way that does not disadvantage a particular sector and get it right that we do not have unintended consequences. I see that as an inevitable further progression of the scheme.

Deputy Whitmore wanted to come in again.

In relation to the discussion that we had this morning, one of the issues that is frequently raised with us is that in order for us to meet our climate actions, what we need is policy coherence across all levels and elements of Government and the climate action plan is an attempt to do that. Often we do not see that, particularly when it comes to agriculture. Indeed, what the Minister will probably see when he leaves the meeting is that the first engagement that the Taoiseach had when he went to COP was to visit a dairy farm which is getting quite a bit of attention.

One of the actions in the climate action plan was to review and develop a plan for a voluntary reduction in the dairy sector. The plan was to be published in this quarter. When the Minister, Deputy McConalogue, was before the committee earlier, it was clear that not only will the plan not be published in this quarter but my sense from talking to him was that there had not been a considerable amount work done in that regard, nor will there be. He said the plan is still under consideration. The Minister and I are probably on the same page when it comes to reducing emissions in the dairy sector. It is about looking at the viability of farms and supporting farmers to move out of areas, such as dairy, that are environmentally or emissions intensive. If that target for the agricultural sector is going to be removed or not satisfied, what impact will it have on the climate action plan? Does the Minister have any comments on that issue? It is certainly something that should be examined. If that work is not being done, it is of concern.

I am conscious we are in a legal process here under our law. I understand the Minister, Deputy McConalogue, is due to appear before the committee.

He was before the committee this morning.

He attended this morning.

He was here this morning.

There was interaction on the issue this morning.

I did not realise that. The Minister clearly has sectoral responsibility and I would be reluctant to tread on his toes in any way. I might answer the Deputy's question on the coherence of overall Government policy, for which, as climate Minister, I have responsibility. I earlier mentioned the various task forces we have set up. Three of the most significant, and they are the ones that have been set up most recently, are in communications, just transition and land use review. They are all related to this topic.

The just transition task force has been established with Mr. Kieran Mulvey, the just transition commissioner, chairing a group made up of the social partners, including representatives of the farming organisations, as well as ICTU, IBEC, environmental NGOs and social justice organisations. Just transition for Irish agriculture and farming must be central. The task force will be coming forward with recommendations to the Government in the spring, and to the Oireachtas thereafter, for how we legislate and deliver our just transition commission process.

The communications task force is also working. It recognises that we will not deliver the scale of public support required if it is top-down Government messaging that tells people what to do. We should certainly not blame or shame any one sector and tell the people in the sector they are the problem and tell them what needs to be done. The year ahead will be one of detailed engagement within and between communities and sectors as to how they see themselves and their role in this transition. We must recognise that the research shows the vast majority of Irish people want to make this leap.

The third task force, the one most recently established and which has not got much attention, relates to land use review. The land use review was the most important climate element of the programme for Government because our land use emissions are so significant and the relationship with agriculture and forestry is so real. The land use review task force is chaired by Ms Geraldine Tallon, the former Secretary General of the Department of the environment. Professor Mark Scott of UCD is providing a lot of work in the technical working group, building on the work that was done in the past two years by the EPA, Teagasc, and our own Department on the technical aspects. Dr. Rory O'Donnell, former head of NESC, is chairing the engagement part of that task force. We spoke earlier about admitting some of the uncertainty, particularly regarding land use. That provides us with an opportunity to go to the agricultural sector and other sectors, and say that we should work together and not create a divisive environment that pits the Green Party against farmers or environment against agriculture. Let us acknowledge some of the complexities and uncertainties, and work out ways in which we can address and reduce emissions, learn by doing and avail of and pay for the skills that farmers have in terms of how we manage land and make this transition. That is a completely different approach than us telling farmers they are the problem. It is an approach that the likes of the farming organisations and co-operatives are up for. The co-operatives in particular realise that if you are trading as an Origin Green brand but are not Origin Green in reality, you are goosed. The biggest crime in this world today is greenwashing. I think, therefore, that we can sit down and work collectively and build on what has already happened. As I said, the numbers of people going into organic farming has trebled. The use of nitrogen fertilisers has dropped by 25% or 30% in the past two years. That is saving farmers money. Our approach cannot be antagonistic and must be collaborative. We will systematically take that approach. We will look to engage and listen and not just tell people what to do.

The plan for reductions in the dairy sector was a voluntary scheme and would have to have been a part of just transition. It would have given farmers an alternative. However, that work does not seem to be progressing at all, which is a shame.

The Minister mentioned wind turbines earlier. We must be cognisant of biodiversity impacts and the potential to switch off the turbines in the event of migratory seabirds, etc. I absolutely agree and think that is the way we need to go. We currently have an issue that falls within the Minister's remit in respect of the ESB and its dams in the River Shannon. There are large migrations of critically endangered eel populations. The eels are trying to get through that infrastructure and thousands of them are being killed on an annual basis as they try to go through those ESB dams. There is quite a simple solution, which is that when those eels are migrating, those turbines should be turned off to allow the eels free passage.

We are now straying from the climate action plan.

The Minister raised the issue in respect of the wind turbines.

The development of offshore wind is related.

Hydropower is renewable.

Okay. It is fine if the Minister wants to answer but we are straying.

I will come in. There is a difficulty. A sectoral approach is very good, in a way, to hold Departments and Ministers responsible. There is crossover, however and nature-based solutions are going to be key. How we manage our rivers is going to be important and key. I agree with the Deputy on the issue on the River Shannon. It is a big challenge for us to change that system to accommodate not only eels but also salmon. The ESB has a real responsibility to help in that regard.

It is not just the ESB, however. A programme to remove obstacles in rivers is going to be developed. There is a similar issue at the nearby Annacotty Weir. The obstacles are not always hydro dams. We will be looking to invest in removing obstacles to allow both eels and salmonoid fish to get up and down. The benefit is that it is part of an integrated system. The level of oxygen in a river is a relation of various functions, one of which is the free-flowing nature of the rivers. Nature is complicated. It is not simple. What we have to do in agriculture might vary depending on the nature of the river system. We could change the river and help farming, strangely, if the Deputy knows what I mean, and vice versa. It is all connected. In general, on the issue around hydromorphology and river basin catchment management systems, the land use review has to optimise for rural development, biodiversity, carbon storage, ammonia, nitrogen and water pollution. It is about optimisation; they are all connected. That is why we cannot completely separate the issues. They are connected.

Will the Minister communicate with the ESB in respect of that issue?

I just did so here.

Will he do so again formally?

If the Minister is open to it, the committee will bring him in for a session to talk about fish migration and the challenges around it. That is a particular concern of the committee, given the evidence we have heard in recent years. We will look at that in 2024.

I have two brief questions. Would the Minister be agreeable to bringing the circular economy and biodiversity strategy under the same monitoring umbrella as the climate action plan?

I see a lot of mutual gain in having that level of integration. Both struggle for the lack of biting with the president's teeth, or whatever you like to call that more central monitoring and observation. In the context of communicating and mobilising, I put my next question to the Minster for agriculture this morning and he was sympathetic. Does the Minister think we should look at geographic areas and area-specific measures and try to involve local communities? The big successes in Ireland are organisations like the GAA, which is organised on counties, parishes and so on. At one stage it was going to get involved with retrofit, which would have been an interesting example. We respond to lower-level community-based ambitions even if, as part of a communications thing, it were only to be done in a particular county or river catchment. To test the model, can we bring processors, farmers, consumers and others into this sort of county or catchment effort that might leverage a level of interest and commitment that is harder with high-level plans? They are welcome, but they are legalistic and we are trying to hold people to account. It does not quite generate bottom-up enthusiasm.

I agree with the Deputy on various fronts. As he knows, the circular economy resides in our Department, and is the particular responsibility of the Minister of State, Deputy Ossian Smyth. It crosses over because he also has a role in the Department of public expenditure and reform. I see less how it immediately connects in here, in terms of how we take the same approach. It is trickier in that we would have to be clear with the measurement of progress.

In a sense it is the idea of looking at your supply chain. You are looking at the supply chain of a business with an air transport element, a buildings element and its sourcing and processing. It is the same; you are not talking about different things, you are talking about resource use-----

No,you are not but some elements, such as building materials, present a huge opportunity. Construction waste is a massive issue. The ability to drive decarbonisation by using wood materials in construction is an example of that circular economy approach. However, it tends to be speckled across different ministerial responsibilities. I will make two further points on what the Deputy has said. I agree with him about the biodiversity plan and there are a lot of legislative pieces in train here. My understanding is that yesterday was the final sign-off in the European Parliament on the nature restoration law. The nature restoration plan will be required to integrate with the climate plan. That is why the land use review is important. It is a way of combining the two to make sure we optimise it for both, in respect of maritime as well as on land. More important is what the Deputy said about community engagement, which I agree with. We are already engaged. We have various schemes. A lot of sports grounds now are part our scheme for EV charging points or renewable power. I see the Tidy Towns potentially evolving to have significant involvement. There is a strong tradition here. I would bring it down to that level of engagement. We have 750 sustainable energy communities, which have done a lot of good work but my sense is they have only got so far and we now need to bring them much further in terms of aggregating for microgeneration, retrofitting and so on. I look at the example of Terenure 2030 in my own constituency, which was a brilliant example of business and local community coming together. We did stuff and it was good. We did stuff in Terenure school, in retrofitting and in mapping how much energy goes into Terenure and how much it costs. Did we really scale up the opportunity? I do not think we have yet. One of the areas with greatest potential is to give those sustainable energy communities the ability to go further. I will be careful I do not get into trouble here, but one of my main things is resourcing. We have a lot of stuff, which is on a voluntary basis, and sometimes you need more permanent, paid skilled resources that can bring those communities to the next stage. That is one of the areas with greatest potential. I will get into trouble because I do not think we budgeted for anything like that.

I want to flag something with the Minister. I am on the board of a rivers trust, and one of the key problems is that we have a lot of fantastic expertise but we do not have any administrative support. When you go for funding it is difficult to get any money to provide that. We have the best experts when it comes to ecology, river management and so on, but we do not have the administrative people to drive projects, grant funding and that kind of stuff. I raise that as a key problem for us.

I move to a different topic because I will get in trouble with the Chair. The issue was raised earlier about data centres and oil, and even gas, provision for data centre power. I know the Minister sent a direction to Gas Networks Ireland. My understand is that there may be a legal issue with that, because it was sent a considerable time ago. Is the Minister aware of any legal impediments with regard to that direction, and will they be resolved through legislation?

I will see the Deputy's rivers trust and raise her our rivers trust. We were involved, with friends and colleagues, in Dodder Action where we do incredible work along the Dodder, cleaning it up and sharing knowledge, history, stories and analysis of what is going on in the river. We tried to set up a rivers trust on the Dodder. Dodder Action is a really good and capable organisation, but could we crack the administrative process? A lot of our processes are so difficult for voluntary systems to overcome, and we could not do it. We were as well motivated and organised as anyone, but we just did not get it over the line. We have an issue on that.

On GNI, I will answer the Deputy's question in this way. I said this at a public meeting recently, so I am not saying anything different to what I would say publicly or to the company itself. I am not responsible for GNI. It is under the Department of housing and local government. It is a superb company, with brilliant capability and a fantastic tradition and history of engineering and community engagement. It is brilliant. However, I believe it needs to take the same path I have seen taken by Bord na Móna, which has gone from brown to green. It had a near death experience between four and five years ago when the European legal requirement landed and it ended peat production. Look at what has happened to Bord na Móna since. It has turned the company round incredibly. It is probably one of the fastest growing and most successful companies in the country at the moment in a variety of different areas, renewables in particular. The mindset of the management, board and workers is that this is the future, and they are going to go green. They are going green at speed and at scale, and it is a fantastic success story, to my mind. GNI needs to do something similar. The future will not be providing fossil gas to an ever expanding network of customers or users. To my mind, I would have thought it has to switch to being part of the biomethane future that offers us more sustainable gas. Why is GNI not chomping at the bit to be at the centre of the new district heating? It is brilliant at laying pipes, and at heat and energy. You would surely think it has huge capability. We know we will expand district heating at scale in a variety of different areas. I think there will be an important role for GNI in the future of energy and energy security in this country but it will not be in deploying fossil gas. Look at where fossil gas goes. Some 50% goes to power generation. When we get to 80% renewables, as we know with absolutely certainty we will, there will be a significant reduction in the amount of gas we will have to transmit. Peak load may be high in the middle of a cold winter morning but the future there entails a massive reduction. In a similar way, 35% of gas is to industrial customers, the vast majority of which will switch to heat pumps, which brings us back to what we said earlier. There is no big future expansion in gas use there. Anyway, the businesses cannot and will not. I do not see the customers going in that direction. Will data centres really say they are going a high carbon route? Of the remaining 15%, there are 800,000 Irish households who rely on gas.

There will not be a cut-off. There is a transition. I come back to what I said about making sure Irish householders are protected from high prices and so on. It is not as if that is going to stop overnight. There too the switch is going to come. In the development of biomethane we could develop something like 15% of our current gas demand if we meet our targets in biomethane. When we look at the reductions in all of the other areas biomethane will be providing a very large percentage and it probably will be specialised. The use of biogas probably will be in those very high intense heat areas in industry that use combined heat and power. A data centre that has backup power generation that needs to be able to turn on at the flick of a switch could use biomethane gas in that. It could be part of the 100% zero carbon solutions. There will be a role for the gas company but it is much more specialised and much more within a decarbonise strategy. If we do not go in that direction then we are going against the way the world is going. Business is making this switch and a business that is not part of the switch will have a very uncertain future.

I thank the Minister for that. In relation specifically to the direction the Minister issued to Gas Networks Ireland, GNI, that they were not to connect data centres to the gas supply, is this direction statutorily robust? Is it the case that this is now in place and there is a moratorium on-----

I am confident that what I have just said about the future approach, both from the data centre industry and from the likes of GNI, that they would actually see that if they go the other route the reputational damage would undo all the benefits completely.

I thank Deputy Whitmore and I thank the Minister. We are scheduled to finished just now. I thank the Minister and his officials for coming in today even if the officials could not speak. When the Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine, Deputy McConalogue, was in earlier I commended him on the work he is doing in agriculture to steer the very difficult big ship. I also commend the Minister, Deputy Ryan, on what he is doing. A huge amount is being done but it is not easy and there is a lot more to do as. In the committee today we did get a sense of what is happening and what needs to happen. I believe I speak for colleagues when I say we can look forward to the new climate action plan when it is published in a few weeks' time and engaging with that and having the Minister in again next year to look at that and to monitor progress as we go. I wish the Minister well in Dubai at COP 28. The Minister is travelling there tomorrow and hopefully we will get good news from that in the week ahead.

The committee adjourned at 3.33 p.m. until 11 a.m. on Tuesday, 5 December 2023.
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