I thank the committee for the invitation to make a presentation on youth emigration. I will base my input on research we published last May, published under the title Time To Go, and will also draw on research published by UCC last Friday. Time To Go is a qualitative research study exploring the experience and impact of emigration on young emigrants who left the country in the past two years, bound for to Canada and the UK, and looks at their experience and the impact that experience has had on them as individuals. For details of the background to the study, the research methodology, the findings and recommendations, I refer members to the report, which has been circulated in advance.
Given the time limitations today and the remit of this committee, I will focus on the most salient and relevant aspects of the research - the economic policy implications of large-scale emigration of young people from Ireland. I will frame the presentation in the context of the impact of emigration on the economy and the consequent skills losses, looking at two main issues, namely, the economic costs and the impact of demographic changes on the labour market arising from emigration.
To begin, I will give a brief overview of some of the data currently available on the numbers leaving. It is estimated that in the past five years 177,000 young people in the age cohort 15-24 years have left Ireland, and a further 209,000 aged between 25 and 44 years have also left. The number leaving continues to rise, with 89,000 having left the State up to April 2013. The numbers emigrating are concentrated mainly in the youth population. At the start of the recession the outward migration was mainly accounted for by workers from new EU member states. However, since 2010 the number of Irish nationals emigrating has increased significantly and now accounts for more than half of those leaving.
Our own research and quantitative data reveal that emigration affects a quarter of all families throughout the country and that half of 18 to 24 year-olds have considered emigration as an option. Dr. Mary Gilmartin published material on immigration last year, explaining the reasons for the fact that we are receiving significant numbers immigrating into the country. She attributed this to a shortage of workers with appropriate skills in some areas. Another interesting finding to consider is that emigrants are now going much further. We used to export people to the UK but now some 16% are going to Australia while Canada is receiving approximately 6% and the UK is taking about a quarter of the emigrating population.
The UCC EMIGRE study provides rich data on the profile of those leaving. It is of particular relevance to the work of this committee in respect of the skills losses that arise from emigration. A total of 62% of recent Irish emigrating graduates hold a tertiary degree of education. Some 17% of Irish emigrants worked in construction or construction-related industry. A figure of 47% had left full-time jobs while just under 40 of these emigrants left because they wanted to travel and experience new cultures. These were often people with qualifications other countries coveted, such as valuable IT skills or were health professionals. A significant proportion left to find another job or to attain job experience that was not available to them at home. That combined figure was 46%. Underemployment was a major driving factor with 13% of those working in part-time jobs before departure. Some 23% of those leaving were unemployed before departure. To reiterate, 76% left to find a job abroad who were unemployed before they left. More than 70% were in their 20s, with a significant number in their 30s, mainly the early 30s.
In Time To Go, we recommended that profiling such as that done in the study done by the EMIGRE study be continued on an ongoing basis. The reason for this is to inform a strategy that will incentivise return migration in the future, a point I will return later in my presentation. I refer to the economic costs, without ignoring the significant social costs. Although emigration costs the State money in the long term it may help temporarily to alleviate the problem of unemployment. When one considers the prevalence of large-scale emigration of highly qualified and highly skilled young people, however, it represents a significant brain drain. Any future upturn in the economy requires a pool of well-educated young people to attract investment and to stimulate and sustain economic growth. Many emigrants felt that Ireland was losing a vital part of its youth population at a crucial time when such vitality and innovation were required.
It is commonly accepted that economic growth leads to a reduction in emigration. We acknowledge the work of the committee in this regard, particularly the report, creating policies that work, published in February. The issue of how to reduce the loss and increase the gain to the economy as a result of emigration, however, is a key question that requires further consideration. For those young people who left with no option but to emigrate, every effort should be made to attract them back to Ireland when jobs in the Irish labour market become available.
Employment is more likely to be found in exporting high technological sectors where highly skilled services play a greater role. As already identified, new jobs are already concentrated on services such as information, professional and scientific and technical activities. We would all agree that young people are a valuable commodity to the labour market and every effort should be made to retain them through the implementation of the youth guarantee; a series of evidence-based activation measures to support young job seekers; rigorous evaluation of existing resource allocation to ensure optimum results; promotion of youth entrepreneurship; realising the potential of social enterprise particularly for engaging with disadvantaged young job seekers; and an education system that responds to skills demands in the labour market, has a balance of vocational and academic learning, improved career guidance, has greater emphasis on personal and social development and also promotes foreign languages. It is worth considering that we have a very high number of 25 to 34 year olds who have completed tertiary education and there are still a significant number of jobless unskilled young people. Therefore, there is a need to reflect the needs of the labour market and resource training that provides participants with the skills and knowledge to access the labour market.
In this regard I wish to highlight that 40% of all jobs in the future will require a technical skill or a foreign language. This committee has already identified ICT skills as important in future job creation. Yet only 3% of primary schools in Ireland have foreign language tuition compared with 31% across the EU. The need for a much greater focus on promotion of foreign languages was the significant factor that came to light in our research. The emigrants highlighted the need to promote foreign languages in order that young people have the linguistic skills to compete nationally and internationally for work and that they are more attractive to employers from non-English speaking countries.
I shall refer briefly to the demographic changes arising from emigration and the impact on the labour market. The estimate for the numbers currently emigrating is alarming and indicates that if emigration continues at the same pace there will be a significant change in the age structure of the population. This has implications for the health policy and for pensions.
Prior to the economic crisis, Ireland exhibited one of the largest youth cohorts in the OECD, accounting for 16%. As a result of rising emigration, the percentage currently stands at 12%. It has implications for pensions and many other social policy issues. How should the Government respond? Without a stable economic environment and an active labour market high rates of youth unemployment and youth emigration will continue to prevail. The Irish State must, therefore, continue to work towards economic recovery to provide a stable economic environment that can attract migrants back to Ireland when the economy recovers.
One of the positive aspects of emigration is that many who emigrate acquire new skills, knowledge and capital. The vast majority in our study expressed a strong desire to return home in the future if jobs were available to them in Ireland. The emigrant study found that 39.5% of all emigrants would like to return in the next three years, however, only 22% see this as likely and 82% said that improvements to the Irish economy would improve their likelihood of returning. This reinforces the need for the Government to invest in a strategy to incentive return migration. Such return is essential in the recovery of Ireland's economy and makes economic sense. It is also vital for future economic growth and the social fabric of Irish society.
In the case of emigration and the consequences of losing a significant proportion of the population, the State should consider ways of attracting these people back in five or ten years' time. What is required is a long-term plan which is responsive to changes in migration demography and responsive to the needs of those who have emigrated from Ireland. It should include a plan which leads with a public employment service and also considers whether adequate housing and social services are in place for returning emigrants. These issues need to be considered now and the data are important in this regard.
I wish to highlight the recent OECD economic survey of Ireland which stated that Ireland should not be complacent about return migration. International competition to attract workers with specialised skills has become fiercer and the automatic return of migrant workers should not be taken for granted. Tracking emigrants and investing in the facilitation of return migration could reduce the risk of permanent loss of valuable qualified workers from the labour market. The information deficit that has existed to date needs to be addressed in order to ensure accurate and responsive policy planning.
Emigration needs to be commensurate with having a significant impact on the Irish economy and on Irish society. While it is often considered as a panacea to addressing the problem of unemployment in the short to medium term, it should be recognised that the long-term impact of emigration can cause significant problems in terms of skills, labour shortages, salary costs and long-term economic growth.
I am happy to take any questions on the presentation or the research reports.