The committee has my paper, all the references in which are available online, so I will go through it very briefly. We welcome this discussion. If we look back to the 1980s, which is the last time we were in such a bad economic situation, there was a major debate on youth unemployment, but there is no debate now, so the committee is to be welcomed in its initiative.
In the natural run of things, even in the best of times, youth unemployment will always be higher than among the rest of the population, for a variety of reasons. Experience is required for jobs, and young people tend not to have experience. There are also difficulties with entry into the labour market, and a number of other factors. However, there are a few key warning signs in terms of where the Irish youth labour market is at the moment, and we need to take heed of those signs and try to design effective policy approaches. Forfás states that there is evidently a higher than average unemployment rate among the under 25s regardless of their level of qualifications. In fact, if we look at the monthly live register figures, there is good news; the numbers and percentages are going in the right direction. However, this is probably caused by people staying in education or emigrating.
One way of looking at this is in terms of the ratio of male to female students throughout the boom years because, by and large, students are young people. For most of the noughties, for every 100 female students there were 90 male students. That is not a reflection of the demographics of the population as a whole; it reflects the phenomenon of more young men going out into the labour market than young women. At the height of the boom, in 2006, that figure of 90% fell to about 86%, but now it is 100%, because young men are staying in college. In a way that is a good thing, but what has happened to those who made up that gap of 5% to 10% over the previous number of years?
One of the things that does not cause youth unemployment, as far as we can determine, is employment protection legislation. We have one of the most liberal employment protection regimes in the OECD, and the evidence we have is that this does not create youth unemployment. The phenomenon that must be considered is something called scarring. If someone of prime age hits a spell of unemployment he will get up off the floor like a boxer, shake himself down and get back into work. However, a spell of unemployment at the time of a person's entry to the labour market can have a long-running effect on his capacity to earn across his economic life. That is why it is important that we concentrate on this problem.
The ESRI has confirmed that there are a number of key attributes of youth unemployment, including low levels of educational attainment, literacy and numeracy problems and a history of long-term unemployment. The other thing that represents a flashing amber light is that all of these indicators are worse for men than for women. There is the phenomenon of NEETs - people who are not in employment, education or training. These are people who do not show up on the live register or in student figures; they have just become detached. About a year ago we produced a document on skills, which is available online, called New Skills for a New Economy. I said at that stage that the phenomenon of NEETs was not really a problem for Ireland. In the intervening year, however, it has become a problem. Figures from the European Trade Union Institute, obtained from EUROSTAT, show that Ireland has had the largest increase in NEETs among the 27 EU member states. There is a huge pool of disconnected youth who are not in the labour market. The International Labour Organisation, which is the oldest international organisation in this area - it was founded in 1919 - and one to which this Government has been affiliated since the early days of the Free State, stated with regard to youth unemployment:
One has to look all the way back to the Great Depression in the 1930s to find a comparable threat to the goal of continuous economic and social progress. The loss of faith in the paradigm, however, is what makes the current youth employment crisis so significant worldwide.
One thing that jumps out is that the countries that have the fewest problems with youth unemployment are those that have good working apprenticeship systems, including Germany, Austria and the Netherlands. When people in Ireland think of apprentices, they think of electricians, plumbers and bricklayers in a three or four-year apprenticeship.
What I mean by an apprenticeship system is a system where entry into a very wide number of professions requires one to go through periods of work with widely varying periods apprenticeship. Perhaps that is one of the learning points we could take from this. One could argue that maybe Austria, Germany and the Netherlands have not been hit as hard but the presence of strong and widely based apprenticeships is something which should be noted.
Something important is going on currently and it is important that, as legislators, members know about it. An initiative was undertaken by President Barroso and a deputation was sent to the eight worst performing member states in regard to youth unemployment. We met it in February. Originally, President Barroso said he wanted to see results by April but, unfortunately, it is now looking like before the June summit before there are results. It is important we see results on that. There were hints in what President Barroso said that there would be some sort of financial assistance to particular member states to combat youth unemployment. We need to push the Commission on that.
What is to be done? The first thing, if one is designing a policy approach, is that one must measure the effect and measure and evaluate the outcomes. Forfás has identified a problem in that currently there is insufficient data available on cost benefit and quality of certain further education programmes and we need to plug that hole. There are generally three approaches to youth unemployment. There are schemes, employer subsidies and social clauses. Schemes played a prominent role in the 1980s and, in our view, they should be a last rather than a first resort and the nearer they are to the labour market, the better. The first effective employer subsidies were used earlier on in the bust where bursaries were given to employers to take on redundant apprentices and that worked very well. There is the internship scheme to which we gave a cautious welcome. As that scheme reaches maturity, it should be evaluated and we should see the results from it. The problem most classical economists will put to one in regard to employer subsidies is that of dead weight, that is, does one subsidise an employer to take on somebody he or he would have taken on anyway? That is a general problem that is always there. The JobBridge scheme provides the intern with the chance to get work experience and provides the employer with the chance to try somebody out while freeing the employer from the often exorbitant charges of recruitment agencies.
The third method is one of social clauses which is not seen in Ireland. If one mentions social clauses, certain people in the Department of Finance will threaten any sort of dire results up to and including plagues of locusts. If one looks slightly northwards to the programme for government in Northern Ireland on the website of the Office of the First Minister and Deputy First Minister, one will see they have gone through this and found that the EU, in certain circumstances, will encourage the use of public procurement to promote social objectives. It must be done in a particular way and it cannot be used as an aid to industry or as an excuse for keeping out companies from other member states. We think social clauses should be tried out in public procurement and we should say to the successful tenderers that they will have to demonstrate to us a mode whereby they will link up with a particular training centre or college and will take a certain number of people into regular entry level jobs, whether apprenticeships or something else. That has not been tried. It is not toxic or forbidden by the EU and it has been tried in Northern Ireland.
What should we do? We should collect the data and measure and evaluate. We should retain people in education and training and minimise early school leaving. We are doing pretty well on that but the biggest danger is that we become complacent. We need to give priority to NEETS because there are people at all levels of qualification who are unemployed and we must give priority to those in danger of becoming detached. We must focus on the issue of the underperformance of young males. Much work is being done, chiefly by Sean McDonagh, the former president of Dundalk Institute of Technology. Boys do worse than girls, to put it at its most simplest, and that feeds through into the labour market.
We must maintain the quality of our apprenticeship system and extend its scope to a wider range of occupations. If one looks at the OECD website, one will see it did a country report on Ireland last year. One of the things John Martin, who is a fairly senior person in the OECD, said was that we should broaden our apprenticeship system.
Last, but not least, we should look at the issue of public clauses in social contracts. An argument is made about public expenditure and people will say this is a small open economy and that if one spends money, it will leak out of Ireland and that stimulus does not work in Ireland because it is a small open economy. Social clauses is one way to ensure public money being spent on public infrastructure or public procurement serves a social cause. In our view, one of the prime social causes, given the warning signals, is youth unemployment.