Everybody concerned with public administration in this country must welcome the early disappearance of the Supplies and Services Act from the Statute Book. It was an emergency measure introduced for war purposes, and, like many other of the hang-overs from the last war, it survived the war for too long. It gave the Government considerable powers to govern the country by decree. Those of us who have served on the Committee on Statutory Instruments in this House are aware of the very large number of Orders which were made under this Bill, many of which were complicated, obscure and potentially dangerous. Therefore, it is welcome news that the Bill is to be re-enacted for a period of not more than 15 months.
At the same time, I think it necessary to draw attention to the fact that the new proposals designed to take the place of the Bill contain certain dangers of their own, in that the Orders made under this Bill are at least subject to parliamentary revision and parliamentary control. I think it very important for us to ensure that the new Bill which will be brought to the House will not give to Ministers too much uncontrolled power to legislate inside a wide field. Each of these Bills, I take it, will come before the House. Every Department will have its own Bill. I think it will be a very peculiarly suitable function of the Seanad to try to safeguard the rights of the individual when these Bills are going through. The Restrictive Trade Practices Bill was, I think, improved in the Seanad and I hope these Bills will also be improved.
The Minister made particular reference to the control of prices and perhaps there is no field inside which the Supplies and Services Act has operated with more effect than in regard to the control of prices. It is interesting to hear that the principles of the 1947 Act are being scrapped, that that particular experiment is not regarded as a success and that a new Bill is to be introduced in its place. In regard to the control of prices, there are certain general observations which ought to be made—that the control of prices is something which ought to be restrained to the absolutely bare minimum scope, that prices in the economic system are rather like the movements of a barometer, that the movements of prices indicate the coming changes in the climate, that they show changes in demand, in supply and in costs and that an artificial interference with the free play of prices is rather like trying to nail down the hand of the barometer to prevent observers from seeing certain useful indicators.
The movements of the hand of the barometer are very useful to people trying to forecast the weather, and, if you attempt to keep it nailed down at one particular point, people trying to forecast the weather are deprived of a very valuable aid to their observations. Nailing the hand of the barometer in that way has no effect on the weather and also keeping prices fixed at a certain point by law very often has no effect on the real underlying price structure. Simply keeping prices, by means of subsidies and so on, at an artificial level, merely has the result of distorting the whole price structure, driving goods under the counter, blinding people, both consumers and businessmen, to the realities of the situation and depriving the Government, businessmen and people generally of very valuable business indicators.
The very important part played by the free movement of prices in this society is shown in a striking manner in the figures published in to-day's newspapers of the change in the balance of trade. There are two lots of prices which are really quite outside the control of anybody in the country, import and export prices, and no measure of price control, however well devised, can do more than make a very small impression on the general movement of import and export prices. Changes in the relative movements of import and export prices have a vital effect on the welfare of the community and the recent change for the better in the balance of payments, to which the Minister referred in the Dáil and to which I wish to address a few observations to-day, is almost entirely the result of a favourable movement in the terms of trade.
The figures given on page 11 of the Central Bank Report refer to the first half of the present year, but the figures in to-day's newspapers, giving the trade for the first nine months of the present year, show the almost spectacular way in which a change in the relations between import and export prices can alter the whole external trading position of the country, without any material alteration in the volume of goods, either imported or exported. The recent improvement in the balance of payments is, of course, a matter of congratulation, but, at the same time, it must be emphasised that it is very largely the result of changes in price movements for which nobody in this country can really claim any great merit or has any reason to be praised. It must also be remembered that a reversal of this movement, a change in the terms of trade in the other direction, could very easily produce a very bad effect on the balance of payments again. The balance of payments, although it has improved, has not yet got into equilibrium and, therefore, the change, although it is in the right direction, has not yet gone to a sufficiently great extent.
I think the Minister himself is prepared to agree with that. It is owing to the great importance of the balance of payments, especially in relation to price control, that I am tempted to say a few words regarding some of the observations made by the Minister when this Bill was being debated in the Dáil a couple of weeks ago. Some of the remarks made by the Minister are such as to commend one's complete agreement, but there are other remarks which, to my mind, are slightly obscure and which I should like to have clarified, because one or two of them, as they read, do not appear to me to be completely valid.
In the first place, I should like to congratulate the Minister on his insistence on the importance of our external assets to the whole position of the country. At column 1753 of the Dáil Debates of 10th November last, he said that it was a good thing to realise that external assets are of very great value to the country, and he went on:—
"Other countries are making substantial sacrifices at present in order to get into the position we are in, of having external reserves to call upon in times of difficulty. If the terms of trade should turn to our disadvantage, or if the policies of other Governments should make it impossible for us to expand our exports in sufficient degree, it will be a good thing to have these reserves of foreign currency with which to finance imports of essential materials required to keep the level of industrial activity going in this country."
It is most important that the value of these external assets should be widely proclaimed and understood. There has been a certain misrepresentation regarding their volume, their importance and their rôle in recent discussions, and it is most important that public opinion should be educated up to realising that they are part of the main constituents of our national, economic, financial and political strength. I am, therefore, very glad that the Minister made such a strong statement as the statement I have quoted.
He also said at column 1754:—
"If we can, by utilising them, secure release from the necessity for imports by expanding production here, it will be something worth doing and something the doing of which we will encourage; but to dissipate these external assets, merely to get rid of them, on the importation of goods we do not need to import because we can produce them for ourselves, would be, as I have said, a policy fit for a madhouse."
At column 1751, he had said that the policy of planned repatriation of external assets by deliberately planned deficits in trade is the policy of a madhouse. I repeat that statement in order that it may appear with the authority of the Minister on the records of the Seanad as well as on the records of the Dáil, because I think it is an important statement, coming from the Minister.
There are other parts of the Minister's speech, however, which I think require a certain amount of clarification. At least, as it stands in the Official Report, I find it impossible to agree with the whole of what he said. I refer to column 1752. This is a matter which has been discussed in the Seanad before and I make no apology for referring to it shortly again. It is one of the central political problems of a country. I think it is a problem upon which it is most important that everybody should think clearly even if everybody does not entirely agree with everybody else. At column 1752 the Minister states:—
"... in case that observation of mine is misunderstood may I make it clear that, in using the expression ‘profitably employed at home', I do not confine their use to purposes which are profitable in the financial sense. I disagree with the view implied in the Central Bank Report that external assets should be repatriated for utilisation here only if they can earn more money here than they are at present earning abroad. We could be satisfied with a much smaller financial return if the general economic or social consequences were sufficient to justify the change, but the aim of the Government is to induce people to bring back for use in this country any external funds they may control for the purpose of their productive investment here."
On this matter I have no hesitation at all in stating that I agree with the report of the Central Bank and I disagree with the Minister. I think that the utilisation of external assets to bridge gaps in the balance of payments can only be justified in three cases.
The first is the one to which the Minister refers in the passage from which I have already quoted, that there may be a period of emergency, a depression in our export trade caused by such a thing, let us say, as Government import quotas in other countries, an outbreak of cattle disease or something of that kind and that it is most important to preserve our external trade in those circumstances. It may be quite legitimate to use a certain amount of our external assets to tie up an emergency of that kind. That can be paralleled in the case of an individual who lives on capital during a period of illness. I think that is a matter upon which everybody will agree.
The second justification for the utilisation of external assets is, in my opinion, different from the one which the Minister describes in his speech. Unless there is some pressing military, social or political need, having a high and agreed priority, external assets should not be utilised except for investment in the production of capital in this country which produces at least as high a yield as those external assets do in the foreign country from which they are being repatriated. I quite agree that it is very hard to draw the line between what is productive and what is not productive. In the debate in the Dáil a great deal of capital was made about the road operations and the road labour. The Minister, at column 1749, stated:—
"I resent most strongly the suggestion that workers employed on road improvements are on relief work. Twenty-three thousand workers are employed on road operations at the present time, and they are doing a job which I think is essential to the development of the country. Their work will not merely save lives; it will save costs and it will increase the over-all efficiency of the national organisation."
With that I entirely agree. It is obviously difficult to say that any particular work is productive or not. I think we must all agree that certain works are productive of an increase in the national income and, above all, are productive either of additional exports or of additional home produced products which will act as substitutes for imports which are now being brought in from abroad.
I certainly believe myself that the second justification for the repatriation of external assets is the production of capital investments yielding as high a return as the external assets yielded abroad, and, if possible, a return which will tend to build up the volume of exports in future.
The third justification is the one to which the Minister refers. That is to say, the investment in social, amenity or non-financially liquidating assets. I do not for one moment suggest that foreign investments should not be repatriated for this purpose, but I do suggest that they cannot be repatriated for this purpose unless the export industries in the country are otherwise building up a volume of exports to fill the gap created by the decline in the volume of external assets. If the agricultural industry and other export industries build up new exports, then and only then can foreign capital be repatriated for what you might call amenity investment—housing, hospitals, schools and things of that kind.
The Minister seems to suggest in the course of his speech that investment is an end in itself. That is an opinion against which I would most positively protest. Investment is a means to an end. Investments are simply meant to produce consumer goods. The Minister not only suggests but positively states very categorically what to my mind is even a greater fallacy, that employment is an end in itself. At column 1748 the Minister states:—
"I admit that unemployment is the biggest problem of all. This Government are prepared to take, as a test of the soundness of their policy, its effect on employment. If we put more people in employment, create more jobs, then the Government's policy is successful. If there is not that result, then its policy is a failure. We will accept that test and will stand by the results."
That, I say with respect, is to my mind a very fallacious statement, that work is an end in itself. Investment and employment are means to ends. The justification for the expenditure of public money is to build up investments and employment and to try to expand the productivity of the nation. If that productivity is expanded in the right direction—and by the right direction I mean a direction leading to exports—then it will be possible for the country to import more. If the country imports more it will be possible to raise the standard of living of the existing population or to raise the size of the population, to reduce emigration, or better still, raise the standard of living of a growing population.
These are the aims of policy. Investment and employment are simply means to these ends and, if the Minister's statement that the criterion of good economic policy is the giving of employment, then I do not see any logical answer to relief works of the worst old-fashioned kind. I do not see any answer to the famous statement of Keynes that it is better to have people digging holes and filling them up again than to have them unemployed. If the Minister means that I disagree very strongly with him. If he does not he might explain in his reply the statement I quoted. Perhaps the statement as reported was slightly bald and does not quite represent his meaning.
As I said, the improvement in the balance of payments position is satisfactory. I do not think that anybody in the country, public or private, can claim any very great credit for it. It is mainly the result of changes in the terms of trade which in their turn are mainly the result of world forces of demand and supply. It is satisfactory but it is not perfect. Equilibrium still remains to be restored and the only way to restore equilibrium without depressing the standard of living is a further expansion of exports. I do say that, instead of the giving of employment and putting men to work being the ultimate criterion of economic policy, success in building up exports is a much more proper object of policy in this country to-day.
That brings me to the question of whether there are any difficulties in the way of expanding exports. I think the answer to that is to be found in the tables on page 11 of the report of the Central Bank.
In these tables it is shown that the internal price level in this country, wholesale prices, agricultural prices, the cost of living and wages, have got out of gear with the import index price number; that, when import prices are falling, internal prices fall less; when import prices are rising internal prices rise more. In other words the Irish internal price level is tending to be higher than that of the outside world.
That is unquestionably a symptom of inflation. If the internal price level, however caused, is higher than outside prices, a country is suffering from an inflationary condition and a country suffering from an inflationary condition finds it difficult to export. In order to build up exports to restore equilibrium in the balance of payments at a high level and not at a now level, it is most important for us to try to restore a competitive level of prices into our export trade. It is well known that Irish exporters are finding it difficult at present to sell in the United States market. With the freeing of the agricultural markets in England, with the admission of more and more goods from the Continent, with the general freeing of English trade, the Irish exporters will find themselves faced with a growing volume of competition in Great Britain. It becomes a matter of great importance, not only to expand the gross output of our agricultural produce, but also to reduce costs to a competitive level so that we will be able to deal with the situation in the outside world.
The tendency for industrial exports to expand, to which the Minister has frequently referred, is of course a matter for congratulation. The Minister is entitled to be congratulated on the success of his industrial policy to the extent to which Irish industries are now able to export abroad. At the same time it is very important to expand those exports further and exports cannot be expanded further unless Irish costs are kept down to the bare minimum.
Anything in the nature of subsidies on production or subsidies on export will rob the country of the full advantage of improved industrial exports. Exports which cannot stand on their own feet, exports which require internal subsidies, are only a sort of facade. They are not really building up the trade of the country in the healthy way in which it could be built up if it could stand on its own feet.
I have referred to the high level of prices in the country. The price structure in Ireland is distorted at the moment by a whole group of subsidies in every direction. There is a very large number of things in this country not selling at their true price. A large number of imported industrial articles are still protected by tariffs and quotas and in that way their price is kept above the world price. The price of wheat is kept on a totally artificial level. The guaranteed price of wheat has recently been raised here at a time when the world price of wheat is falling. The result is that the subsidy on flour and bread is maintained in the region of something like £5,000,000 a year. The public transport company is only operated by means of heavy Government subsidies. The social services and the health services require heavy subsidies to-day and heavier subsidies in the future. The housing programme, the amenity investment for which the Minister is prepared to repatriate external assets, carries a large amount of subsidy from rates and taxes.
The whole price structure is distorted and made artificial by this series of subsidies. Who pays for these subsidies? Who meets the cost of this distortion? Let us be perfectly clear, the cost is met by somebody in this country. We are not in a position to dump our subsidies on the outside world. We are not in the position to export our subsidies on outside consumers. I do not wish to enter into this big question as to who pays all these subsidies, but I do suggest that the answer to that question in a few words might perhaps be worth giving an opinion on.
In the first place, in so far as articles are kept artificially high in price, the subsidies are paid by the consuming public. There is a wide range of articles which are unquestionably dearer here than in other countries. In regard to the range of articles which are kept artificially low by Government policy—the opposite of those which are protected and kept high, those which are subsidised and kept low—the price of the subsidies must be paid by the general taxpayer and is paid in particular by that very small group of taxpayers who bear the total burnt of the whole direct taxation of the country. Only about one taxpayer in 15 pays direct taxes and a very large part of the cost of these subsidies lies on that small section of the population. The people in the towns with fixed incomes who have no escape from the income-tax collector, who pay full rates, the people whose land does not enjoy subsidies—which is another subsidy to which I might have referred, the subsidised rates on agricultural land—bear a completely disproportionate part of the cost of these subsidies.
However, the whole community bears the cost of these subsidies in a more indirect and less obvious way. In so far as our exports are throttled and made difficult by these subsidies, our import capacity is reduced to the same amount. To the extent to which our imports are kept down the standard of living of the population is artificially kept down to the same extent. The only way in which the population is maintained at its present standard of living is by bridging the gap by the utilisation of old savings.
Ultimately—and this is the last point I want to make—the cost of these subsidies is going to be borne by future generations. In so far as we find it necessary to spend old savings to keep our balance of payments in equilibrium, and in so far as we refrain from taking the appropriate steps to correct that disequilibrium by building up exports which in turn require a restoration of reality into the price system, we are keeping the present generation afloat by living on the savings of the past.
Any person who keeps his own standard of living up by living on the capital that he has inherited from his forebears is doing a very poor service to the people who come after him. I am afraid that some future generations of Irish people, observing the events of recent years, may say that the people of the first 30 years after the Treaty maintained themselves at a higher standard of living than was justified by their own exertions or their activities; in other words, that the country has been on a sort of a spree lasting for a good many years—that it has been living on capital. The people who will ultimately pay for that are the unborn generations of our people.