Dáil Éireann Debate, Thursday - 3 December 2009
28 Deputy John Perry asked the Minister for Finance in view of the household survey, the projected level of the live register measure of unemployment; the measure of unemployment; and the total number at work by the end of 2010 which underlies the pre-budget forecasts; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [44845/09]
Amharc ar fhreagraThe Pre-Budget Outlook recently outlined the likely economic and fiscal position for next year and for the following three years based on information available at end October. The labour market projections contained in the analysis are consistent with the quarterly national household survey measure of labour market developments. As is the norm, annual averages are projected, as opposed to year-end positions.
On that basis, my Department forecast that total employment would fall by around 175,000 (7.8 per cent) this year and perhaps by a further 75,000 (3.8 per cent) next year. The unemployment rate consistent with such a view is for an increase from an average of 11¾ per cent this year to an average of 13¾ per cent next year. An update of these projections will be presented alongside the Budget.
Live Register figures were not published in the Pre-Budget Outlook. However, it is expected that the number on the Live Register this year will average around 400,000. In terms of next year, a revised forecast will be available once the Budget is presented to the Dáil. I would point out, however, that the rate of increase has slowed considerably since the beginning of the summer and this slowdown has consistently been maintained in recent weeks.
I want to assure the Deputy that I regard the deterioration in the labour market as the most worrying aspect of the recession. In this regard, the Government is continuing to pursue policies that will foster the best climate for long-term employment and which help to position the economy to take advantage of the upturn in world growth when this gathers momentum. The Government has also announced labour market activation measures, and has taken action to provide support to indigenous companies and the protection of vulnerable jobs in the productive sector of the economy.
