I propose to take Questions Nos. 34, 40 and 53 together.
The Revenue Commissioners and the Central Statistics Office (CSO) prepared a report, at my request, on the Implications of Cross Border Shopping for the Irish Exchequer. The report was published on my Department's website on 20 March 2009.
The report estimates the value of cross border shopping in 2008 to be in the range of €350m to €550m; representing an increase in the order of around two-thirds compared to 2007, with the resulting VAT and excise duty revenue loss to the Irish exchequer estimated to be between €58m and €90m (the higher estimate represents under 0.5% of the total VAT and excise revenue in 2008). In addition to the VAT and excise loss, there is a possible corporation tax revenue loss that is tentatively estimated to be in the range of €15m to €24m. However, it should be noted that all estimates for corporation tax revenue are provisional and should only be considered as indicative of the potential loss.
In regard to 2009, the estimated value of cross-border shopping was put in the range of €450m to €700m, with a potential VAT and excise revenue loss of between €72m and €112m, and a possible corporation tax revenue loss in the range of €20m to €31m.
The report noted that the main causes of price differentials between goods in Northern Ireland and the Republic, are operating costs, profit margin (mark-up), taxes and the rapid depreciation of Sterling against the Euro. While changes in the standard VAT rates widened some price differentials, their impact however remains small compared to the size of the change in the exchange rate.
The report also noted that there was rather limited availability of quantifiable data on cross border shopping, and with a view to improving the data available, Revenue and the CSO have worked on questions for inclusion in the Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS) that should facilitate a more detailed assessment of cross-border shopping in the future.
I understand that the results of the CSO survey on cross border shopping, based on results from the Quarterly National Household Survey, Quarter 2 2009, are to be published tomorrow.