Since 2002, the political situation in Chad has been dominated by threats of armed rebellion against the government of President Idriss Déby. While the government signed an accord with civilian opposition parties in 2007, providing for a degree of political reform, armed rebel groups have remained active and intent on overthrowing the government by force.
The most recent threat to the Government came from a rebel offensive in eastern Chad in May. The government's success in halting the rebel advance seems to confirm that the Chadian armed forces have achieved military superiority. The emergence of new tensions in the UFR rebel coalition, composed of eight rebel groups, suggests that they are unlikely to be able to pose a substantial military challenge to the Government in the foreseeable future. The Government's financial and military advantage also suggests that a political change of leadership in Chad is unlikely in the immediate future. Parliamentary elections due later this year and presidential elections due in 2010 have been deferred by another year, due to the slow pace of preparations.
Relations with Sudan deteriorated sharply after the failed rebel offensive, with Chad accusing the Sudanese government of supporting the rebels. In recent months, however, relations between the two countries appear to have improved. In October a high-level Sudanese delegation visited N'djamena where they met with President Déby. At the same time, relations between the two countries traditionally have been volatile and the current phase of improving relations may not continue.
The European Union operation in Chad and the Central African Republic (EUFOR Tchad/RCA) was established for a period of one year from March 2008. It played a key role in ensuring the security of refugees and displaced persons living in camps along the eastern border of Chad, and in facilitating the provision of humanitarian relief. I wish to pay tribute to the success of EUFOR and to the professionalism of the members of the Irish Defence Forces who participated in the mission, including Lieutenant General Pat Nash, the Operation Commander. EUFOR transferred authority to a UN mission, MINURCAT, on 15 March 2009. Over 400 Irish troops are now serving with MINURCAT. The mandate of the military aspect of MINURCAT is similar to that of EUFOR. Since the UN took over responsibility it has faced a number of challenges, including the upsurge in rebel activities, and difficulties with force generation. Ireland has strongly supported the EUFOR mission from the outset, and we will continue to support MINURCAT.
Instability in eastern Chad is closely linked to the conflict in neighbouring Darfur, and any progress towards a peace settlement in Darfur is likely to have a positive impact on the political situation in Chad. Conversely, any deterioration in the situation in Darfur is likely to have a serious destabilizing effect on the parts of Chad that border it. Cooperation between the governments of Sudan and Chad in addressing the causes of instability in the region is also vital, and I urge both governments to work together towards this objective. Ireland will continue to monitor the political and humanitarian situation in Chad, and support humanitarian relief efforts, to which Irish Aid has contributed more than €14.5 million since 2007.