As the Deputy notes this report was prepared by the Commission for Energy Regulation (CER). Applied to the Irish electricity sector, the EU target for the reduction in industrial emissions (traded sector) results in a reduction from 15.6Mt CO2 (2005) to 12.3Mt CO2 (2020). It should be noted that this is not a fixed physical emissions reduction target for this sector as carbon credits may be purchased or exchanged by participating entities, should they fail to reach the emissions target imposed on them. The overall reduction in this sector may therefore be a total cut in CO2 emissions to the level required or a mixture of cuts and credit purchases should cuts alone not prove economic.
On the highlighted page 24 of the referenced report on the ‘Impact of High Wind Penetration in 2020 on the Single Electricity Market', based on modelling and assumptions outlined in that report and previous work carried out as part of the All Island Grid Study, it was noted that the electricity sector may not reach the emissions targets it is obliged to reach as part of the wider Irish and EU target. Page 24 discusses the results from the ‘Central' modelling scenario in the report, for which a demand growth of 3.5% annual is assumed. In the ‘Low' scenario, a demand growth of 2.7% was assumed, resulting in CO2 emissions of approximately 12.8Mt CO2, which is just above the target.
These demand growth levels were taken from the All Island Grid Study to ensure consistency in approach between the modelling and to allow comparisons. In addition, the wind penetration report was drafted in summer 2008, when high demand growth was foreseeable in the future.
Over the course of 2009, demand for electricity fell by approximately 7%. Given this large drop, growth in annual electricity demand may not be as high as that envisaged in the low scenario and on that basis it could reasonably be concluded that we are more likely to meet the outlined 12.3Mt CO2 target in the electricity sector in 2020. Critically also, the 40% target should not be regarded as a limit to our ambitions. If it proves possible, and recent analysis suggests that it may, to go beyond 40% renewable electricity, then doing so will obviously further reduce emissions from the electricity sector