In March, the CSO released the Quarterly National Household Survey for the fourth quarter of 2009. The QNHS' broadest survey-based labour supply indicator, known as S3, which includes the unemployed and those persons outside the labour force showing some interest in obtaining work, was 16.5 per cent in the fourth quarter. The figure is not a broader measure of unemployment. Rather, it illustrates the current extra potential of the labour market. While the most recent figure reflects the deterioration in the labour market over the past eighteen months and was a significant year-on-year increase, recent evidence from the Live Register suggest that unemployment indicators have stabilised in recent months.
The developments in the labour market that we have seen, as evidenced in the latest QNHS and Live Register releases, do not conflict with the current view of my Department as set out in the Budget day projections. My Department is forecasting an average of 460,000 persons on the Live Register for the year as a whole. However, the Live Register does not measure unemployment and includes part-time workers. The average number of persons on the Live Register for the year to end-March is 433,000. As such it may turn out that a lower average outturn may materialise.