Dáil Éireann Debate, Tuesday - 17 May 2011
105 Deputy Terence Flanagan asked the Minister for Finance the level of Ireland’s debt; the amount owed by State controlled banks to the ECB; the projections for the next five years; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [11310/11]
Amharc ar fhreagra107 Deputy Michael McGrath asked the Minister for Finance the anticipated nominal amount of the national debt, fully taking account of the amount of capital invested to date and expected to be invested in the banks, at the end of each of the years 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015. [11332/11]
Amharc ar fhreagraI propose to take Questions Nos. 105 and 107 together.
At the end of 2010, Ireland's National Debt stood at €93 billion. The projections for the National Debt for the years 2011 to 2015, based on the budgetary forecasts contained in the Stability Programme Update that was submitted to the European Commission and published on 29 April, are set out in the table below.
It should be noted that the National Debt differs from the General Government Debt (GG Debt), which is the standard measure used within the EU for comparative purposes. The latter includes the National Debt as well as Local Government debt and some other minor liabilities of Government. In addition, the GG Debt is a gross measure of debt; it does not allow for the netting off of cash balances (which had been built up considerably in recent years, so adding greatly to our GG Debt). As the GG Debt is the standard measurement of gross indebtedness used for comparative purposes within the EU, it is often referenced as a percentage of GDP. Ireland's GG Debt was estimated at 96 per cent of GDP at end-2010 or €148 billion. However, while General Government gross debt at end-2010 stood at €148 billion, net debt was lower. Taking account of the funds held in the discretionary portfolio of the National Pensions Reserve Fund and other liquid assets, General Government net debt is estimated to have stood at approximately €117 billion or 76 per cent of GDP at end-2010. The projections for the GG Debt based on the budgetary forecasts contained in the Stability Programme Update are also set out in the following table. The significant difference between the end-2010 National Debt and GG Debt is largely explained by the €31 billion in Promissory Notes committed to financial institutions in 2010. Due to the fact that the GG Debt operates on an accruals basis, this amount was added in full to the GG Debt in 2010 but the cash borrowing to fund these payments will only take place on a phased basis, beginning in 2011, and so only adds to the National Debt on a phased basis also.
The forecasts of General Government debt in the Stability Programme Update and the following table are based on cash balances being reduced by some €0.6 billion in 2011 and being held broadly constant at the end-2011 level over the course of 2012 and 2013. In the later years of the forecast period, the estimates of the General Government debt are based on cash balances being reduced by approximately €5.5 billion.
The recent banking stress tests carried out by the Central Bank identified an additional €24 billion in support to the banking sector as being required, including €3 billion of funds which take the form of contingent capital. However, it is anticipated that mitigating actions, such as burdening sharing, will mean that up to €5 billion of this €24 billion will not have to be provided by the State. At the same time, the following projections prudently assume that an additional €20 billion in State support to the banking sector will be required, with €10 billion of this being sourced from the National Pensions Reserve Fund and the balance funded by the Exchequer.
|
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
National Debt (€ bns) |
122 |
139 |
153 |
162 |
169 |
|
General Govt Debt (€ bns) |
173 |
187 |
198 |
202 |
204 |
The Deputy has also asked for a figure for the amount owed by Government controlled banks to the ECB and the projections for this figure over the next five years. The Central Bank has disclosed that at the end of March borrowings from the ECB from the six covered institutions was €79.2 billion, down from €85.6 billion at the end of February, though there were also substantial borrowings from the Central Bank. No breakdown is published for these banks. As regards the projected position over the next five years, the recently announced deleveraging plans by the Central Bank outline how we intend to achieve the progressive elimination of the substantial dependence of these banks on Eurosystem funding.
