Dáil Éireann Debate, Wednesday - 20 July 2011
79 Deputy Thomas P. Broughan asked the Minister for Finance if he agrees with various celebrity economists that Irish employment levels will fall steadily to 2016 and beyond to 2021; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [21709/11]
Amharc ar fhreagra80 Deputy Thomas P. Broughan asked the Minister for Finance if he will estimate the total number of citizens in employment in quarter 1 of 2007, Q1 2008, Q1 2009, Q1 2010, Q1 2011, Q1 2012, Q1 2013, Q1 2014, Q1 2015 and Q1 2016, when the Government’s term will end; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [21710/11]
Amharc ar fhreagraI propose to take Questions Nos. 79 and 80 together.
Table 1 outlines the number of people employed in the State in the first quarter of each year from 2007 to 2011. Over this period total employment has declined by almost 285,000, or 13½ per cent. This reflects the sharp decline in activity in labour intensive sectors such as construction and retail. The construction sector alone accounts for more than half of the jobs lost since the start of 2007.
|
2007 Q1 |
2008 Q1 |
2009 Q1 |
2010 Q1 |
2011 Q1 |
|
|
Employment (’000) |
2,088.5 |
2,124.1 |
1,965.6 |
1,857.6 |
1,804.2 |
Quarterly Irish economic data can be very volatile. This was evident once again in the latest Quarterly National Household Survey data, which revealed that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate fell from 14.8 per cent in the final quarter of 2010 to 14 per cent in the first quarter of this year. Reflecting this, my Department's labour market forecasts are based on annual averages rather than quarterly figures.
On this basis, my Department's latest forecasts — set out in the Irish Stability Programme Update which was published at the end of April — are outlined in Table 2. Given that recovery in the labour market typically lags that in economic activity, a further decline in employment in net terms is anticipated this year. Furthermore, with growth set to be driven by less labour-intensive export demand over the forecast horizon, employment will recover at a moderate pace. Nevertheless, net employment growth is forecast to return in 2012 and to continue in the following years. In total around 100,000 net jobs are expected to be created over the period 2012 to 2015.
In terms of longer term trends, it is important to emphasise that Ireland's underlying economic strengths remain intact despite the very sharp downturn that we have experienced. These strengths include a well-educated work force, relatively favourable demographics, a very open economy with a high tech export base and a pro-enterprise environment. These underlying strengths should continue to support economic growth in the longer-term and this will, in turn, create net employment growth in the economy.
|
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
Employment (’000) |
1,848.0 |
1,819.0 |
1,828.0 |
1,850.0 |
1,882.0 |
1,921.0 |
