As regards the Deputy's request for projections for each quarter in 2012 and at end-2013, 2014 and 2015, quarterly Irish economic data can be very volatile and are subject to non-negligible revisions. This was evident once again in the latest Quarterly National Accounts release, which revealed that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, real GDP grew by 1.6 per cent quarter on quarter in Q2 2011 following positive growth of 1.9 per cent in Q1 2011. The previous estimate for the first quarter of 2011 was 1.3 per cent growth. Given this volatility, my Department's growth forecasts are based on annual rather than quarterly figures. This is in line with the approach of others, including the Central Bank and ESRI. The table below sets out the information the Deputy requests, showing real annual GDP growth in each of the years 2008 to 2010. My Department's projections for each of the years 2011 to 2015, as published in the Medium-Term Fiscal Statement, are set out in the following table:
Percentage Change in GDP 2008-2010:
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
Real GDP Growth
|
-3.0
|
-7.0
|
-0.4
|
Projected Percentage Change in GDP 2011-2015:
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
Real GDP Growth
|
1.0
|
1.6
|
2.4
|
3.0
|
3.0
|