The European Commission released its Autumn Economic Forecast on 10th November 2011. The Commission believes that the global economy has moved to a lower growth trajectory and that real GDP growth in the EU came to a standstill around the end of 2011. Only in the second half of 2012 is a return to economic growth expected. GDP growth in 2011 is estimated at 1.5% in the euro area and 1.6% in the EU, and projected to be 0.5% and 0.6% respectively in 2012 and 1.3% and 1.5% in 2013.
I have discussed the Commission's latest forecasts with my European colleagues. These downward revisions to growth underline the importance of achieving an early and effective resolution of the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area in order to restore consumer and investor confidence. In this regard there have been some positive developments recently including the six-pack of legislative reforms and agreement on the Treaty on Stability, Co-ordination and Governance.