In relation to economic growth, GDP developments are the internationally accepted metric.
Last December, on the basis of existing published CSO data for the first half of last year, my Department projected that the economy would expand by 1 per cent for last year as a whole. This figure was in line with the prevailing consensus at the time.
Preliminary data from Central Statistics Office – and I stress that the figures are preliminary – suggest that the economy expanded by 0.7 per cent in real terms last year. So our economy is expanding, the first time this has happened since 2007, which is to be welcomed.
The difference between GDP and GNP relates to the movement of payments into and out of Ireland from the rest of the world. Such payments relate to flows of both Irish corporates situated abroad and foreign owned multinationals located in Ireland, as well as the significant outward flows relating to the servicing of our national debt. In an economy like ours, GNP developments are very volatile on a quarterly basis, a point which is repeatedly made by the Central Statistics Office. This volatility stems from inter alia very large profit flows – in both directions – between Ireland and the rest of the world referred to above. This in turn is a function of the openness of the Irish economy, and makes all projections of GNP subject to considerable uncertainty.