Dáil Éireann Debate, Tuesday - 25 March 2014
238. Deputy Stephen S. Donnelly asked the Minister for Finance if he will provide the latest available estimate for the non-budgetary adjustment to the 2014 deficit to be considered in budget 2015. [13525/14]
Amharc ar fhreagraBudget 2014 outlined a total adjustment package of €3.1bn. This comprised €2.5bn in expenditure cuts and tax increases complemented with additional resources/other savings of €0.6bn.
These additional resources/other savings are made up of a number of items. Firstly, the NTMA Budget debt service estimate for 2014 is lower than the corresponding April SPU estimate, of the order of €0.2bn, due to an improvement in the interest rate environment generally and lower than previously planned bond issuance. In summer 2013, the Central Bank provided an estimate of the 2013 surplus income to be paid to the Central Fund in 2014 based on results to that date and projections for the remainder of the year. The Central Bank revised this estimate upwards by €0.1bn in September, in light of actual results for the first nine months and the consequent revisions of projections for the remaining three months of 2013. In terms of savings from the Live Register, the numbers in work rose by 33,800 in the year to the second quarter of 2013 and the Live Register at the end of quarter 3 2013 was down by just over 20,000 when compared to the same period in 2012. On foot of the recovering labour market, live register savings had exceeded those previously expected of the order of €0.15bn. Finally, the remaining €0.15bn arises from a number of other factors mainly connected with State asset transactions.
With Exchequer data available for only two months of the year, it is too early for a meaningful comparison against outturn for any estimates made as part of the Budget 2014 fiscal forecast. The estimates for additional resources / other savings in 2014 will be reviewed, closer to budget time, as part of the formulation of an overall Budget 2015 package of measures.
