I am informed by the Revenue Commissioners that the estimated yield that could be raised in a full year and partial year (with effect from 15 October) from the proposed Excise increases mentioned by the Deputy are as set out in the following table.
-
|
-
|
Estimated Yield *
€m
|
Partial Year
|
10 cent
|
2.0
|
|
20 cent
|
4.0
|
Full Year
|
10 cent
|
12.8
|
|
20 cent
|
25.4
|
*Assuming no behavioural change by smokers.
These estimates are based on the assumption of no exceptional change in behaviour by smokers following the increase in prices. This assumption may not hold where smokers substitute non-Irish duty paid consumption for duty paid consumption. For example, smokers might divert their consumption to tobacco products bought legally in another EU Member State or to illicit products.