Joe Carey
Ceist:111. Deputy Joe Carey asked the Taoiseach the projected figures for the number of persons of 70 years of age and over, as at 2016, 2021, and 2026; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [38970/15]
Amharc ar fhreagraTuesday, 10 November 2015
Ceisteanna (111)
Freagraí scríofa
The Central Statistics Office publishes population projections for the State after each Census, the last set of projections were published in April 2013 and cover the years 2016-2046.
The projections are based on assumptions relating to future trends in fertility, mortality and migration. Two sets of assumptions were chosen for fertility, one for mortality and three for migration.
The model used in these projections is the demographic component method, which projects the base population forward under the chosen assumptions. The base year used was 2011, using the Census of Population results.
For the purposes of the table provided, only the assumptions relating to mortality and migration are relevant. The fertility assumptions are not relevant as all persons that will be aged 70 years or over in the years 2016, 2021 and 2026 were already born in 2011.
Mortality Assumption
The long-term rate of improvement in life expectancy is assumed to be 1.5 per cent over the period 2016-2046.
Migration Assumptions
M1 : Net migration returning to positive (net inflow of persons) by 2016 and rising steadily thereafter to plus 30,000 persons annually by 2021.
M2 : Net migration returning to positive by 2018 and rising thereafter to plus 10,000 persons annually by 2021.
M3 : Net migration remaining negative for the whole period.
Projected Population aged 70 and over from 2011, by Criteria for Projection and Year
'000
|
Year |
M1 |
M2 |
M3 |
|
2011 |
359.5 |
359.5 |
359.5 |
|
2016 |
418.7 |
418.4 |
418.3 |
|
2021 |
507.8 |
506.2 |
504.6 |
|
2026 |
606.7 |
603.0 |
599.2 |
Source: Central Statistics Office.'