Mary Butler
Ceist:387. Deputy Mary Butler asked the Minister for Health the estimated mortality rate for dementia in each of the years since 2006, in tabular form; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [35738/16]
Amharc ar fhreagraTuesday, 22 November 2016
Ceisteanna (387, 388)
Mary Butler
Ceist:388. Deputy Mary Butler asked the Minister for Health if his Department or the HSE has projections on the likely dementia-related mortality rate for 2021, 2030 and 2040; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [35739/16]
Amharc ar fhreagraFreagraí scríofa
I propose to take Questions Nos. 387 and 388 together.
The Central Statistics Office has provided the following information on deaths attributable to dementia:
|
Year |
Male |
Female |
Total |
|
2007 |
266 |
547 |
813 |
|
2008 |
257 |
482 |
739 |
|
2009 |
304 |
637 |
941 |
|
2010 |
369 |
682 |
1051 |
|
2011 |
276 |
515 |
791 |
|
2012 |
535 |
978 |
1513 |
|
2013 |
573 |
1212 |
1785 |
|
2014 |
662 |
1282 |
1944 |
|
2015* |
734 |
1425 |
2159 |
*Note 2015 is provisional data only and is subject to revision. Source Vital Statistics CSO.
Comparable estimates for the other years mentioned by the Deputy are not available.
Projections of the number of people with dementia in Ireland in five yearly intervals up to 2046 are as follows:
|
Age group |
2011 |
2016 |
2021 |
2026 |
2031 |
2036 |
2041 |
2046 |
|
30-59 |
2,866 |
2,935 |
2,934 |
2,869 |
2,854 |
2,864 |
2,889 |
2,991 |
|
60-64 |
1,200 |
1,301 |
1,449 |
1,615 |
1,738 |
1,906 |
2,044 |
1,896 |
|
65-69 |
2,776 |
3,287 |
3,827 |
4,020 |
4,485 |
4,876 |
5,315 |
5,645 |
|
70-74 |
4,604 |
5,532 |
7,013 |
7,442 |
8,367 |
9,378 |
10,211 |
11,188 |
|
75-79 |
7,475 |
8,213 |
11,298 |
12,560 |
14,055 |
15,928 |
17,968 |
19,692 |
|
80-84 |
10,958 |
12,265 |
16,099 |
17,868 |
22,348 |
25,364 |
29,102 |
33,196 |
|
85+ |
17,970 |
21,260 |
25,595 |
31,085 |
40,195 |
52,512 |
64,654 |
77,549 |
|
Total |
47,849 |
54,793 |
68,216 |
77,460 |
94,042 |
112,828 |
132,182 |
152,157 |
These should be interpreted with caution. The international evidence is that the age of onset of dementia is increasing in high income countries and the illness duration is reducing. It is hypothesised that this is due to better treatment to reduce recurrence of vascular diseases, such as heart disease and stroke. At this point it is uncertain whether or to what extent this positive trend may be offset in the future due to the higher prevalence of excess weight, obesity and diabetes. However, the increasing population of older people in Ireland means that the number of cases of people who have dementia is likely to increase.
It is a priority of the 2014 National Dementia Strategy to ensure that dementia is better recorded in primary and secondary care and that data from the Single Assessment Tool (an IT-based system to access health statists and care need of older people which is at an advanced stage of development) is used in future research to inform dementia care in Ireland.