Dáil Éireann Debate, Tuesday - 21 March 2017
71. Deputy Catherine Connolly asked the Minister for Communications, Climate Action and Environment the way Ireland will meet its EU 2020 CO2 emission reduction targets; if it is expected that Ireland will not meet those targets, the amount it is anticipated the shortfall will be; the penalties that will be faced if these targets are not met; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [13940/17]
Amharc ar fhreagraI refer to the reply to Question No. 737 of 28 February 2017 on this issue and to the reply to Questions Nos. 34 and 41 on today's Order Paper.
For each year between 2013 and 2020, Ireland has a Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) emissions reduction target under the 2009 Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) No. 406/2009/EC. For the year 2020 itself, the target set for Ireland is that emissions should be 20% below their value in 2005. This is jointly the most demanding 2020 reduction target allocated under the ESD, and one shared only by Denmark and Luxembourg. The 2013 target is based on the average of emissions for the years 2008-2010. The target for each of the years 2014 through 2019 is on a straight-line trajectory between the targets for 2013 and 2020, and surpluses in one year can be used to cover deficits in any subsequent year. The average incidence of these targets is a 12% reduction relative to 2005.
In March 2016, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published projected emissions for 2020 which indicate that Ireland’s emissions at that stage could be in the range of 6 - 11% below 2005 levels, depending on whether additional policies or measures beyond those already in place by the end of 2014 are implemented. On a cumulative basis over the period 2013 - 2020, Ireland is projected to have a deficit of between 3 and 12 Megatonnes Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (MtCO2eq). According to the latest inventory published by the EPA in November 2016, GHG emissions for 2015 are estimated to be 59.84 MtCO2eq. This is 3.7% higher than emissions in 2014.
As I have previously indicated, the shortfall to 2020 projected by the EPA reflects both the constrained investment capacity over the past decade due to the economic crisis (including the impact of the troika programme and the EU fiscal governance requirements), and the fact our 2020 target was very significantly above what would have been cost-effective for Ireland to contribute to the overall EU effort. It now represents a significant challenge to be addressed, including as we look out to 2030. In order to maximise Ireland's emissions reductions under the 2009 ESD and address the gap to the 2020 target, it will also be necessary to pursue other available options, in addition to the introduction of further policies and measures planned through the National Mitigation Plan.
In this regard, I published a draft of the National Mitigation Plan for public consultation on 15 March 2017. This public consultation will help inform further work in my own Department and across Government to finalise the Plan later this year.
