Dáil Éireann Debate, Thursday - 29 June 2017
79. Deputy Dara Calleary asked the Minister for Finance if the risk and sensitivity analysis performed by his Department on a biannual basis includes an analysis of the contingent liabilities facing the State; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [30718/17]
Amharc ar fhreagraThe risk and sensitivity analysis chapter in the Stability and Programme Update and Budget publications includes a section containing links to more detail and information about contingent liabilities. This implements an IMF recommendation to enhance Ireland’s fiscal management and reporting following an IMF evaluation in 2013. The recommendation was to publish a comprehensive annual statement of fiscal risks that includes sections on contingent liabilities, including public guarantees.
The sensitivity analysis contained in the SPU and Budget publications, show the responsiveness of various metrics to changes in world output and interest rates.
As a contingent liability arises in a situation where past or current actions or events create the risk of a future call on the Exchequer, the nominal level of contingent liabilities are independent of changes to world output or interest rates. The only change would be to the ratio itself, from the dominator effect, arising from a change to GDP as part of a sensitivity analysis.
