I propose to take Questions Nos. 216 to 218, inclusive, together.
When the then Minister for Finance announced in last year’s Finance Bill that he was reducing the rate of DIRT by 2% each year until it reaches 33% in 2020, he identified the cost of that measure as €9m for a full year, or €36m by 2020 (Revenue have subsequently revised the annual cost of a 2% reduction in the rate of DIRT down to €6.4 million). He explained that the cost of moving the other taxes which tended to move in line with the rate of DIRT had been tentatively estimated by Revenue as €14m per annum or €56m by 2020. Such costing estimates are based on the assumption of no behavioural change as it is not possible to estimate changes in behaviour.
The then Minister also agreed during the Report Stage of Finance Bill 2016 that the 2017 Tax Strategy Group (TSG) would examine this issue. This was done, and the report to the TSG containing this examination can be found at:
http://www.finance.gov.ie/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TSG-17-11-Capital-and-Savings-Taxes-Final-PL.pdf.
Finally, I should also say that it is not possible to accurately estimate the changes in investment behaviour or any estimation of yield from individuals opting for investment products over deposit accounts if there was a change in the rate of exit tax as decisions to invest in specific financial products are driven by a range of factors and not only taxation.