Dáil Éireann Debate, Thursday - 16 November 2017
4. Deputy Róisín Shortall asked the Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade his views on the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit situation; the contingency planning that is under way to minimise the adverse effects of this outcome on Ireland; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [48584/17]
Amharc ar fhreagraIn light of growing concern in the House, among the public and in the business community, including the agribusiness community, about the worsening state of affairs in relation to Brexit, it is important for the Minister to set out the Government's assessment of the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit and explain to the House what contingency planning is under way in his Department.
As Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade with special responsibility for Brexit, I am working closely with colleagues across Government to address the many challenges resulting from Brexit. This co-operation also involves the relevant State agencies. Work at Cabinet level is being prepared through cross-departmental co-ordination structures. All relevant Departments are providing research, analysis and overall policy input to the Government's wider response to Brexit, including its priorities for the ongoing Article 50 negotiations between the EU and the UK, as I outlined to Deputy Donnelly. An important focus of planning and preparation is deepening the Government's analysis and understanding of the exact consequences of a range of different possible scenarios, including one in which no withdrawal agreement is concluded. This represents an intensification of the Government's previous contingency planning. All Departments are assessing in a very concrete way the immediate legal or practical consequences of a no-deal Brexit in their areas and what mitigating measures might be possible. It will then be necessary for the Government to consider the situation in the round and discuss whether specific actions are required at that stage.
Aside from its wider co-ordination responsibilities, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has lead responsibility for planning for, preparing positions on and following the EU-UK negotiations. This requires research on and analysis of very many legal, institutional and political issues. The eventual outcome of negotiations will, of course, be decisive in determining the shape and effects of Brexit. Our permanent representation in Brussels and our embassies in all member states send us a constant stream of reports describing and analysing the concerns and priorities of EU institutions and our partners. I will come back with supplementary answers.
The Minister has not actually provided his assessment of the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit. That is what we are all keen to hear. Recently, the European Commission called on the UK to commit to avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland, including by ensuring no emergence of regulatory divergence from the rules of the internal market and the customs union which are or may be necessary in future for meaningful North-South co-operation, the all-island economy and the protection of the Good Friday Agreement. We all agree with that. However, Mr. David Davis took a very different position earlier this week. We all heard his assertion that Northern Ireland cannot remain within the customs union. These are two absolutely divergent positions and the fundamental question is how they can be reconciled. No one can see how it can be done.
While David Davis said that, he also published a paper during the summer which explored the concept of a customs union partnership to allow Britain, Ireland and the rest of the European Union to remain within the one customs union. While he is saying, consistent with the British Government position, that they are leaving the customs union, the Single Market and the European Union, it does not mean they will not commit, having left, to a redesigned customs union and new trade partnership arrangements which, I hope, allow for barrier-free trade between Britain and the European Union. Let us see how that develops. We are not at that stage yet.
As to the chances of a no-deal Brexit, personally, I think that it is unlikely. It would be very, very bad for Britain and for Ireland should that happen. I do not believe the British Government will allow it to happen. The EU task force will negotiate in a way that is consistent but fair and which shows some understanding of British difficulties around some of the issues they face. I do not believe the negotiating teams will allow a situation to arise wherein we have no deal and Britain crashes out of the European Union with no contingency planning in place. That would be madness and I do not believe it will happen.
We all agree that it would be madness from our point of view and from that of the EU. While we all hope for the best, however, we must clearly prepare for the worst. The worst is becoming more and more likely as time goes on, unfortunately. It is important to recall the comments of Mr. Michel Barnier in the House earlier in the year. He was confident about free movement of people and services but not of goods. He is not becoming any more optimistic as time goes on.
I listened to Mr. Danny McCoy of IBEC during the week after he and other business interests had a meeting in Downing Street. He said that while "the" customs union might not survive, we could be talking about "a" customs union. Can the Minister provide the House with more detail on the possibility of a customs union? Is there a model we might follow?
On the general issue of a breakdown, there will come points in any negotiation cycle with which very significant stakes are associated where things are really difficult. This is a really difficult negotiation and we are coming to one of those points in December. Britain wants desperately to move on to phase 2, as do many other countries, including Ireland, and as do businesses. We have an annual east-west trade relationship with Britain of €65 billion and 38,000 Irish businesses trade with Britain every week. They all need certainty, which they cannot get until we move on to phase 2. However, these negotiations are structured in such a way that we must deal with some issues before we can move on, one of which is a really important issue for Ireland. That is creating tension because some people are not ready to move on some of those issues. We need to hold firm, trust in the process and the experienced negotiators on both sides and ensure we uphold the Irish interest through December.
The British paper was not a bad starting point. This concept of a customs union partnership is one we could further explore, but that has to happen between the task force and the British negotiating team. It will not happen in earnest, however, until we move on to phase 2.
