Contingency planning at both a domestic and an EU level is focused on three areas: preparing for a no-deal scenario or so-called “disorderly Brexit”; preparing for a transition period based on the “status quo”; and preparing for the future EU-UK relationship.
While the outcome of the December European Council and the move on to Phase 2 has lessened the likelihood of a disorderly Brexit, very detailed work on a no-deal or worst-case-scenario is advancing intensively through the cross-Departmental coordination structures chaired by the Department for Foreign Affairs and Trade. This work is also informed by ongoing stakeholder engagement. Separately, a new preparedness unit in the Commission is considering EU-level responses.
All this work provides a baseline scenario for the policies and sectors impacted, which can then be adapted as appropriate in light of developments in the EU-UK negotiations. In this regard, it is welcome that the direction of travel is now firmly towards achieving a “status quo” transition period. Agreement on a “status quo” transition will provide certainty to individuals and businesses while also aiming to avoid any cliff edge effects between the UK leaving the EU and a future relationship agreement coming into force. The period will provide time for businesses and citizenship to prepare for the UK's withdrawal from the EU based on the outcome of the negotiations on the framework for the EU's future relationship with the UK. In this respect, the expectation is that the European Council will adopt additional Guidelines at its meeting on 22-23 March 2018 on the framework for the future EU-UK relationship. These guidelines - as well as further clarity on the UK position, which has been sought by the European Council - will provide a clearer picture of the direction of travel in the negotiations.
The Government’s contingency planning continues to be firmly grounded in the extensive work and outreach that has already been undertaken by individual Departments and agencies, as well as by stakeholder organisations, academics and others. Much of this is in the public domain.
My Department is conducting a number of research projects to build an understanding of the possible implications of Brexit on Ireland for enterprise and our trading relations. These studies will provide an evidence base to inform Ireland’s policy positions as part of the wider negotiation on the UK’s future relationship with the EU and further inform our domestic policy response to Brexit. The details of the Brexit related research undertaken by my Department are as follows:
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Title
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Summary
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Cost
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Researcher
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Publication
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Strategic Implications for Ireland arising from changing EU-UK Trading patterns.
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Profile trade and investment to highlight dependence at sectoral level; Quantify impact of various scenarios on trade and investment; Develop policy options for Ireland – negotiations and enterprise (mitigation) policies.
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€174,000 (Ex. VAT)
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Copenhagen Economics
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Due Q1 2018
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Sectoral implications arising from Brexit: Most exposed sectors
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This research examines the firm level implications of the UK being outside of the European Single Market and Customs Union for Ireland’s most exposed enterprise sectors. (Note: confidential firm level detail will not be published, an aggregate synopsis is being prepared).
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€69,950 (Ex. VAT)
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DBEI research and Deloitte
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Due Q2 2018
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Import Content of Irish Exports and Implications of Brexit
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This study examines the Import Content of Irish Exports, Implications of Brexit for Inputs and Competitiveness and the extent to which Irish firms source intermediate inputs from the UK. This research will provide empirical evidence on the import content of Irish firms’ exports, how firms may be exposed to changes in the trading environment after Brexit and the impact of Brexit on inputs, and competitiveness.
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€40,000 (Ex. VAT)
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ESRI
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Due Q2 2018
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The Potential Impact of WTO Tariffs and other key relevant issues on Cross-Border Trade
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Phase (1) Effect of WTO-level tariffs and other non-tariff barriers on cross-border trade in manufactured products. Phase (2) Cross-border trade at firm level and integration of supply chains. Phase (3) Wider trade issues including trends and developments relevant to trade in Services.
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€90,000* (Inc. VAT)
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ESRI
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Phase 1 published June, 2017Phase 2 due Q1 2018Phase 3 due Q 3 2018
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Brexit -the View of Irish SMEs (Survey)
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This project is a survey of over 500 SME business owners and is a follow-on of a survey completed at the beginning of 2017, and published in May.
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€25,000 (Ex. VAT)
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Behaviours and Attitudes
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Published 22 January 2018
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Brexit -the View of Irish SMEs (Survey)
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This project consists of a survey of over 1,000 SME business owners and structured engagement.
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€52,250 (Ex. VAT)
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Behaviours and Attitudes
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Published 8 May 2017
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*The project is managed by InterTrade Ireland and co-funded by the Department of Business, Enterprise and Innovation and the Northern Ireland Department for the Economy. Figure shown represents the full amount.
