Pre-Budget 2018 estimates of potential Stamp Duty yield were based on a projection forward of receipts in the preceding years. This projection included factoring out a series of significant transactions in prior years that were deemed to be once off and not likely to reoccur. Estimates are therefore provided on a prudent basis but on the assumption of a continuation in the level of core (non-once off) activity of previous years. However, the property market is transaction-based and if the level or values of transactions falls significantly below that seen in previous years, then Stamp Duty tax receipts from property may be lower.
I am advised by Revenue that provisional data for the first quarter of 2018 indicate that €115 million has been collected in relation to Stamp Duty on property transactions (this covers both residential and non-residential property). This compares to €83 million in the same period of 2017. Receipts of Stamp Duty on property vary by month, as borne out by collection in previous years. While Stamp Duty receipts from property are below forecast to date in 2018, the projection is for the full year and given the nature and timing of property receipts, it is too early to reach any conclusion regarding full year collection.