Thursday, 10 May 2018

Ceisteanna (226)

Jonathan O'Brien

Ceist:

226. Deputy Jonathan O'Brien asked the Minister for Health the budgetary projection within his Department due to demographic change for the years 2018 to 2028. [20705/18]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Freagraí scríofa (Ceist ar Health)

The Department of Health has commissioned a number of reports on future demographic demands for the health system, including the Health Service Capacity Review 2018.  From such reports we can see that, under current delivery models, the costs of care for older people, as well as those with chronic illness, will put pressure on funding going forward.  However, the actual forecast costs of meeting such demand is dependent on how and where we meet such demand.

There are plans, including under SlainteCare, to move delivery from acute settings to the community which, in addition to providing better outcomes for patients, is expected to be more cost effective.

Whilst under the Programme for Partnership Government we are working to develop a three year rolling forecast, in the meantime, we tend to limit our budgetary forecast to 1 year, reflecting the national annual Estimates cycle. Each year, as part of Departments submission for the Estimates process an assessment of the potential impact of demographic change, both growth and aging is prepared. For the 2018 submission is was estimated that the impact of demographics on the health system was between 1.9-2.1%.