Tuesday, 5 February 2019

Ceisteanna (167, 172, 173)

Pearse Doherty

Ceist:

167. Deputy Pearse Doherty asked the Minister for Finance the impact of a no-deal Brexit based on existing departmental analysis on general government balance projections from 2019 to 2024, or until the latest date available. [5381/19]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Pearse Doherty

Ceist:

172. Deputy Pearse Doherty asked the Minister for Finance the level of pre-committed expenditure for 2020 to 2024, in tabular form; the portion this expenditure forms of general Government balance in each year; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [5536/19]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Pearse Doherty

Ceist:

173. Deputy Pearse Doherty asked the Minister for Finance the predicted general government balance for 2019 to 2024 or the latest date available; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [5537/19]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Freagraí scríofa (Ceist ar Finance)

I propose to take Questions Nos. 167, 172 and 173 together.

Projections for the general government balance from 2019 to 2023 can be found in table 1 of the Economic and Fiscal Outlook published as part of Budget 2019. The figures are reproduced below (table 1) for the Deputy’s convenience. Projections beyond 2023 have not been compiled by my Department.

In view of the increasing risk of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit, and the recently published UK assessments, my Department is working with the ESRI on a new medium to long-term model based assessment of the impact of Brexit on Ireland. This will update the 2016 exercise which has formed the basis of the Department’s projections since then. This is being treated as an urgent priority and the output is expected later this quarter. The results will also inform the Department’s next set of macroeconomic and fiscal projections in the Stability Programme Update 2019 in April.

Furthermore, my Department recently prepared a preliminary assessment of the projected impact of a disorderly Brexit based on the latest UK National Institute of Economic and Social Research estimates. The assessment indicates that a disorderly Brexit would result in a sharp deterioration in the general government balance, with the currently projected balance for 2019 turning to a deficit of 0.2% of GDP, followed by a further decline in 2020 to a deficit of 0.5% of GDP. The deterioration in the general government balance is summarised in the following tables.

Table 1 - general government balance

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

general government balance Budget 2019, per cent of GDP

0.0

0.3

0.4

1.1

1.4

general government balance 'no-deal' Brexit scenario, per cent of GDP

-0.2

-0.5

-0.5

0.2

0.4

Nominal pre-committed expenditure for the period 2020 to 2023 is set out in the table below. As with the general government balance, projections beyond 2023 have not been compiled by my Department.

Table 2 - nominal pre-committed expenditure

2020

2021

2022

2023

pre-committed expenditure, € billion

1.9

1.3

0.7

0.9

general government balance, € billion

1.1

1.6

4.2

5.8

These estimates will be reassessed during 2019 and will be set out in the 2019 Mid-Year Expenditure Report.