I propose to take Questions Nos. 262 to 265, inclusive, and 267 together.
The total annual cost of providing income-assessed subsidies for children between the ages of 3 and 15 years in receipt of the National Childcare Scheme is estimated at €95.9m.
The costs are arrived at by:
- establishing the number of families with children under 15 years by income bracket (data supplied by CSO) and
- profiling these families by reference to the age of their children and
- estimating the proportion of children in each income bracket and age range using centre-based care and
- calculating estimated subsidy rates based on income levels and age profile and
- applying estimates of the average hours used by age group for term time and non-term time and
- Limiting the dataset to the relevant cohort identified by the Deputy.
The scheme’s cost model is based on key assumptions around behaviours and rates of growth, with certain metrics extrapolated from available data. As such, all estimates remain heavily caveated insofar as the scheme represents a considerable departure from existing schemes and this renders estimates inherently challenging to predict. It is particularly difficult to estimate the behavioural changes that will come by creating drastic increases in the level of subsidy available.
With regard to the analyses set out below relating to increases to subsidy rates, it should be noted that substantial increases in childcare capacity would be required to meet the likely demand created by increasing the total subsidy payment, particularly at the higher end.
The existing maximum subsidy rates for a 1-3 year old is €4.35 per hour. Table 1 summarises the estimated additional full year costs where all income assessed subsidies are increased in 50 cent intervals for children between the ages of 1 and 3 years across the National Childcare Scheme.
Table 1: Increased Income-Assessed Subsidy Rates for 1- 3 year olds
Increase all subsidy rates by
|
€ 0.50
|
€ 1.00
|
€ 1.50
|
€ 2.00
|
€ 2.50
|
€ 3.00
|
€ 3.50
|
€ 4.00
|
€ 4.50
|
€ 5.00
|
€ 5.50
|
€ 6.00
|
€ 6.50
|
Additional Cost per annum
|
€10m
|
€19m
|
€28m
|
€38m
|
€48m
|
€58m
|
€69m
|
€80m
|
€91m
|
€102m
|
€114m
|
€125m
|
€138m
|
Table 2 summarises the estimated additional full year costs where all income assessed subsidies are increased in 50 cent intervals for children between the ages of 1 and 5 across the National Childcare Scheme.
The existing maximum subsidy rates for a 1-3 year old is €4.35 per hour and for a 3-5 year old is €3.95.
Table 2: Increased Income-Assessed Subsidy Rates for 1- 5 year olds
Increase all subsidy rates by
|
€ 0.50
|
€ 1.00
|
€ 1.50
|
€ 2.00
|
€ 2.50
|
€ 3.00
|
€ 3.50
|
€ 4.00
|
€ 4.50
|
€ 5.00
|
€ 5.50
|
€ 6.00
|
€ 6.50
|
Additional Cost per annum
|
€17m
|
€34m
|
€51m
|
€69m
|
€87m
|
€106m
|
€125m
|
€144m
|
€164m
|
€184m
|
€205m
|
€226m
|
€247m
|
Table 3 summarises the estimated additional full year costs where the Universal subsidy is increased in 50 cent intervals for all children between the ages of 1 and 3 years old up to €6.50 across the National Childcare Scheme, assuming the minimum Targeted Subsidy is increased so as never to be below the universal subsidy.
It should be noted that this measure assumes the 50c per hour universal rate remains for children under 1 year old.
Table 3: Increased Universal Subsidy Rates for 1- 3 year olds
Universal Rate
|
.50c
|
€1
|
€1.50
|
€2
|
€2.50
|
€3
|
€3.50
|
€4.00
|
€4.50
|
€5.00
|
€5.50
|
€6.00
|
€6.50
|
€7.00
|
Additional Cost per annum
|
|
20m
|
43m
|
66m
|
90m
|
€115m
|
€141m
|
€168m
|
€199m
|
€239m
|
€280m
|
€322m
|
€366m
|
€412m
|
Finally, table 4 summarises the estimated additional full year costs where the Universal subsidy is increased in 50 cent intervals for all children between the ages of 1 and 5 years old up to €6.50 across the National Childcare Scheme, assuming the minimum Targeted Subsidy is increased so as never to be below the universal subsidy.
It should be noted that this measure assumes the 50c per hour universal rate remains for children under 1 and that a universal subsidy is introduced for children between the ages of 3-5 (where they would not have already qualified if they were not yet ECCE eligible).
Table 4: Increased Universal Subsidy Rates for 1- 5 year olds
Universal Rate
|
.50c
|
€1
|
€1.50
|
€2
|
€2.50
|
€3
|
€3.50
|
€4.00
|
€4.50
|
€5.00
|
€5.50
|
€6.00
|
€6.50
|
€7.00
|
Additional Cost per annum
|
|
€35.2m
|
€61.2m
|
€88.2m
|
€116m
|
€145m
|
€175m
|
€208m
|
€252m
|
€305m
|
€360m
|
€416m
|
€474m
|
€533m
|