The Housing Need and Demand Assessment (HNDA) tool is key to estimating likely future housing need across the State by tenure type, including private ownership, private rental, social and affordable homes. The tool is underpinned by independent research undertaken by the ESRI on behalf of my Department. Drawing on Census 2016 population data, and incorporating CSO estimates on net international migration for 2017-2019 and modelled projections/ scenarios from 2020 onwards, it provides an estimate of structural housing demand at national and county level to 2030.
Actual population increases reflected in the Census 2022 data above the underlying projections/ scenarios in the HNDA tool, arising inter alia from inward migration, are not included in the estimated housing need. That said, in line with commitments in Housing for All, the HNDA framework and housing targets will be updated having regard to the detailed Census 2022 data. This data will be available from June 2023. The revised targets will also take account of projected population increases in coming years, including from net inward migration.
As per my Department's HNDA guidance, local authorities are required, when preparing their respective HNDAs, to estimate the level of specialist housing needed, including temporary housing for international protection applicants.