Dáil Éireann Debate, Tuesday - 9 April 2024
303. Deputy Rose Conway-Walsh asked the Minister for Finance to outline how his Department converts projected economic growth and government expenditure into projected tax revenue when preparing economic projections; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [14707/24]
Amharc ar fhreagraMy Department’s projections for tax revenue are based on the relevant macroeconomic indicators across each tax head: for example, personal income tax is grown in line with forecasts for wage and employment growth for the coming years. The projections also take into account other factors that can impact on receipts, such as policy measures, once-off factors and specialist judgement. The latest tax revenue projections were published alongside the Budget in October and will be reviewed as part of the update to the full suite of macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts in the Stability Programme Update later this month.
My Department periodically reviews its methodology for forecasting tax revenues, most recently in 2019 with the publication of the Tax Forecasting Methodological Review. This report provides a comprehensive overview of the Department’s approach to tax forecasting and can be found at the below link.
www.gov.ie/en/publication/76468a-tax-forecasting-methodological-review-2019/
