asked the Minister for Finance if he will make a statement on the forecast for 1970 of the Economic and Social Research Institute quarterly economic commentary published on 29th December 1969 of a growth rate of 4½ per cent, a price rise of 6½ per cent, a rise of consumption of 11 per cent, a slackening of investment and a current deficit rising to over £70 million.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Economic Forecast.
41.
The forecast to which the Deputy refers represents the personal views of the staff members of the Economic and Social Research Institute on the basis of certain assumptions. In giving this forecast the Quarterly Economic Commentary points out that economic forecasting is an inexact science, subject to many uncertainties, and that projections for more than six months distant should not be regarded as more than a broad indication of what might be expected to happen on the specific assumptions set out.
An official assessment of prospects for 1970 on the same lines as previous years will be published prior to the Budget, but I would like to say at this stage that the outcome for 1970 will be largely dependent on what occurs in the sphere of wage and salary increases.
Did the Parliamentary Secretary ever hear of the Programme for Economic Expansion?
Can the Parliamentary Secretary say whether the tone of his reply is meant to suggest that he does not agree with this forecast?
I suggest that we should wait until the official forecast is given by the Government prior to the Budget. The Government have facts available to them which are not necessarily available to outside bodies.
Would the Parliamentary Secretary like to give them before the by-election?
I think not. Better not.
There is no problem. The economy is in balance.