With the permission of the Ceann Comhairle, I propose to make a statement on the European Council held in Venice on Thursday and Friday, 12 and 13 June 1980, which I attended with the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Deputy Brian Lenihan. The discussions at the Council covered economic and political co-operation subjects. I have had the Presidency summary of the proceedings and certain other documentation laid before both Houses in the usual way.
We discussed the general economic situation, energy, relations between the northern countries and those in the less developed part of the southern hemisphere, the Community's trade with Japan and the United States, international monetary questions and the recycling of petro-dollars. There was a brief discussion of the Report of the Three Wise Men which is to be considered again by the Foreign Ministers in Council.
We spent some time discussing the role of the next President of the Commission who is due to take up office in January 1981. During his term, the incoming President will have to deal with the system of financing the Community, which, as Deputies will be aware, is likely to reach its limits by 1982, at the latest. The prospect, which is of very real concern to Ireland, is, therefore, for a radical appraisal of the whole range of Community policies, expenditures and receipts, including the common agricultural policy and regional and social policies. The incoming President will also have to deal with the enlargement of the Community and with many of the problems facing western society, including the impact of new technologies and relations with other countries and with the oil-producing States. It is clear that the task of the incoming President will be formidable and his capacity to deal both with internal problems and with the role of the Community in a rapidly changing world will be of great significance for the future of Europe. The Council decided that the discussion should be regarded as a preliminary review of the question and that the Italian Presidency should consult further with the Heads of State or of Government with a view to securing an early decision.
The aftermath of the settlement of the British budgetary problem was very much in evidence during our discussions. The House will be aware from documents laid before it by the Minister for Foreign Affairs earlier this month of the nature of the solution reached tentatively by the Council of Ministers at their meeting on 30 May and afterwards confirmed by governments. In brief, their decision was to provide for a reduction in the net contribution of the United Kingdom to the Community by an average of about £866 million a year for 1980 and 1981, with a pledge by the Community to resolve the problem for 1982 by means of structural changes. The Irish contribution to the £866 million will be of the order of £8 million a year.
This additional contribution by us must be looked at in the light of our overall position. Recent Commission estimates show net receipts to Ireland from the budget as being of the order of £360 million in 1980. Though we have a comparatively small population, we are the second highest net recipients from the budget and these receipts will increase in 1981 by a figure which is estimated to be up to 30 per cent.
The settlement of the British problem enabled certain other difficulties to be dealt with. These included clearing the increased farm prices for 1980, with an understanding on future years, the west of Ireland package involving an expenditure there from Community funds of about £150 million over the next ten years, progress with the development of common policies for fish and sheep, and a possible way forward towards larger regional and social funds. The settlement could, in fact, result in the release to Ireland of Community finances amounting to an extra £75 million in 1980. We had, therefore, a very immediate and direct interest in having the British budgetary problem solved quickly. The funds flowing to Ireland as a result of the settlement and the other benefits which could result are of an altogether different order of magnitude from the extra cost to us.
We also had a much more fundamental interest in a solution which far outweighed any short-term financial benefit. The British problem and the intensity of feeling it evoked, at times seemed to call into question the very foundations of the Community. The settlement means that the Community can go about its business once again in an orderly manner and grow and develop in a way that will promote the welfare of the people of Europe.
The real pity is that the British problem generated an attitude which could be detrimental to the future development of the Community and which must be countered. It has focused attention on the Community budget to an altogether disproportionate degree. The budget is, indeed, an instrument of Community policy but it is only one instrument and not by any means the most important. It is often forgotten that it is, in total, less than 1 per cent of the gross national product of the member countries.
The common agricultural policy which absorbs an important part of the budget is also one of the few policies which have developed a Community relevance. The common agricultural policy is not just a policy for agriculture. It has a strategic importance in that it guarantees food for the people of Europe in these uncertain times. It has an economic value in the extent to which it keeps families on the land, prevents rural depopulation and unwelcome and unnecessary additions to urban unemployment registers. Furthermore, a thriving agriculture contributes considerably to general industrial and economic prosperity.
The cost of the policy is perhaps 0.5 per cent of the gross national product of the member countries. The cost—and the benefits—are not distributed in direct proportion to budgetary flows. A fundamental principle of the CAP is the unity of the market—so that, in fact, benefits are related more to agricultural production in a particular country than to the size of budgetary transfers. There is the further point that contributions to the budget often take the place of national expenditure on agriculture —they do not, in fact, represent a net extra burden to national Exchequers.
I mention these qualifications because of the dangers which any review of Community policies confined simply to the budget must carry. In fact, concentration on the budget to the extent that has been in evidence over the past year means that other aspects of the Community tend to be overlooked. Benefits or costs cannot be measured simply in budgetary terms and to imply that they can is totally to misconceive the nature and the working of the Community.
The industry of the member states, and of some of the stronger economies in particular has flourished in the Common Market behind a common tariff. The benefits of this to the countries concerned, which are immense, are not measured in any budget figures. Neither can the budget measure the benefits to a particular country from the encouragement of industrial investment and modernisation through the application of common laws, common standards and common procedures in a single market of 260 million people.
Furthermore the Community gives the countries of Europe a standing in the world which they would not otherwise have. The Community, acting and speaking as such, has far greater economic and political status than any loose combination of member states.
Following on the discussion of the future of the Community after the British settlement, we looked at the economic prospects facing Europe. The tone of this discussion was sombre. We considered, in particular, the general impact of oil price increases. While these increases are affecting standards in the developed countries, they are damaging the less developed countries to a devastating extent and they are also impeding the ability of the industrialised world to help the less well off regions. The price increases cannot, in the view of the Council, be justified by any objective consideration and their repetition constitutes an obvious threat to international stability.
Changes in energy policy over time will lessen dependence on depleting resources. In the shorter term, however, it was agreed that a constructive dialogue with the oil producers was called for and should be sought. At the meeting, I stressed, in particular, the need to develop institutions and mechanisms at Community level so as to enhance our ability to recycle the finance flowing in such volume to the oil producers.
The Commission's assessment of other aspects of the European economy was equally disturbing. The momentum of inflation is now of the same order of magnitude as in 1974-75 when, as Deputies will recall, the rate here rose to over 24 per cent in a year. Unemployment in the Community is forecast to reach 6 per cent on average in 1980, with a strong increase likely in 1981. There are great problems for young people entering into the larour force. Low growth, higher inflation, large budgetary deficits, interest rates often at a crippling level, and general uncertainty are all combining to create an extremely difficult outlook. The Commission see the restoration of better financial balance in certain countries as a priority for these countries. Against this background, the Commission say that there is no alternative to maintaining broadly restrictive budgetary and monetary policies. It proposes no common programme of action on unemployment. These assessments are very relevant for us in Ireland, depending, as we do to such an extent on the level of world trade, in general, on European trade, in particular.
The plain fact is that growth in the largest market for our goods this year—the United Kingdom—is forecast to be negative and we will be selling there in a contracting market. Furthermore, economic growth in Europe as a whole is estimated to be of the order of 1½ per cent in 1980.
Our economic prospects at present are overwhelmingly influenced by the price of oil. Last year about one-sixth of all the goods we exported went to pay for oil. This year the proportion will probably be higher. It is vital that everyone should clearly understand that increases in the price of oil mean a real transfer of resources away from Ireland; and that this transfer cannot be corrected by increases in money incomes here. Our European partners have accepted this reality and have acted upon it. They have settled their economic and incomes policies accordingly in their efforts to defeat inflation.
When some of the countries with the strongest economies in the world are trimming their sails in this way, it would indeed be foolish, if not dangerous, for us to try to act differently. Our partners believe that inflation must be tackled as a first priority because unless it is, it will sap the strength of their economies and make the achievement of growth and lasting employment impossible.
Ireland has a sound economy. Our population is, perhaps, the youngest in Europe. The potential of our agriculture and of the new industries which are coming here is great. But we will realise that potential only if our economic policies are right and all those concerned in the key areas accept the reality of what is happening in the world, the intolerable burden which energy costs and inflation are imposing, and what this must mean for us.
As Deputies might expect, the tone of our discussion on international affairs, in the context of European political co-operation, was no less sombre than that of our exchanges on economic matters. We met at a critical point in world affairs against a background of continuing violation of basic international principles and of continuing threats to peace.
The declaration on the Middle East which, as a statement of a common European position, breaks new ground, has attracted the greatest attention. This reflects the recognition that growing tensions in that region constitute a serious danger to world peace and that it had not been possible by the date originally foreseen to make worthwhile progress towards agreement on the outstanding matters arising from the Camp David agreements. We are of course, anxious not to prejudice whatever prospects remain for progress and this has been recognised in the reception given to our declaration by the United States Secretary of State.
The declaration is carefully balanced. It recognises the need for the Palestinian people to exercise fully their right to self-determination. It recognises as well the need for guarantees of security for Israel. It also stresses that only the renunciation of force can create a climate of confidence and that such renunciation is a basic element for a comprehensive settlement.
I have necessarily omitted some elements in the declaration which I commend to Deputies. It concludes by indicating the Community's decision to make the necessary contacts with all the parties concerned. The objective would be to determine in the light of the results of this consultation the form which a Nine initiative could take.
The declaration on the situation in the Lebanon is satisfactory from an Irish viewpoint.
We expressed our deep concern over the situation in Afghanistan and we agreed that it was now advisable to hold a meeting at political level of the two sides in the Euro-Arab dialogue. In relation to Southern Africa, we noted the positive developments in Zimbabwe and expressed support for the efforts to secure implementation of the Security Council Resolution on Namibia.
When in Venice I had the opportunity of a separate meeting, for about half an hour, with the British Prime Minister, Mrs. Thatcher, during which we discussed a number of subjects of common interest.
The Venice meeting was valuable in that it provided the leaders of the Community with an opportunity to have a detailed review of the international scene and an exchange of views on the many serious issues facing us. It also enabled the Community to co-ordinate its position for the forthcoming Economic Summit to be held in Venice on 22 and 23 June.
I would like, in conclusion, to put on record, my appreciation of the quality of the facilities, with which we were provided by the Italian Presidency in the incomparable surroundings of Venice.