asked the Taoiseach the total net emigration in the latest available year; and the corresponding annual figure assumed in the Government's economic plan.
Ceisteanna — Questions. Oral Answers. - Net Emigration.
3.
Dún Laoghaire): The only reliable estimates for migration flows are those for net migration, that is the difference between the inward and outward flows betweeen successive censuses of population. These estimates are obtained by relating the intercensal population changes to date for births and deaths in the same period. For the post 1981 period, which was the most recent census year, very tentative estimates only of net migration can be made until the results of the 1986 census of population become available. These estimates of net migration are based on provisional mid-April population estimates which in turn are subject to revision in the light of the census results.
The provisional mid-April 1985 population estimate is 3,552,000 which is 109,000 above the 1981 census figure of 3,443,000. The natural increase in the population, that is, the excess of births over deaths in the same period was 141,000. thus for the four years April 1981 to April 1985 it is estimated that there was a net migration outwards of 32,000 persons which is an average of 8,000 per year. As I stated earlier, a firm estimate for the five-year period 1981 to 1986 will be available after the 1986 census.
The migration assumption underlying the labour force projection made in the plan Building on Reality was based on a special study prepared by a group of demographic experts, including experts from outside the Civil Service. The results of this work were published in April 1985 in a report entitled Population and Labour Force Projections 1986-1991. The group made assumptions about future trends in key demographic variables including migration. With respect to migration, the assumption was that over the period 1981-86 new outward migration would be in the range 5,000 to 10,000 per annum and in the period 1986-91 in the range 7,500 to 15,000 per annum. The assumption in the plan is consistent with lower limits of the range.
Is the Minister of State aware that the latest estimate from the Central Statistics Office is a figure of 14,000 people emigrating? As he has pointed out, the figure in the national plan is 5,000 to 10,000. In view of that, will the Minister of State not agree that the figure in the national plan is a gross underestimate of the true situation?
(Dún Laoghaire): I do not understand the Deputy's question with regard to the national plan. If the Government were dishonest they would have taken the highest figure because it would have suited the other figures in the plan. In fact, the Government were more than honest in taking the lowest figure which made it more difficult for them in terms of projections for employment and so on.
This is a new one.
(Dún Laoghaire): The figures in the national plan are consistent with the figures produced by the expert study group. I do not accept that the Government were wrong in their assumption in the national plan. The figures with regard to net migration are as stated. I repeat the only way we can get a firm figure is to await the outcome of the 1986 census. I am quite satisfied that the Central Statistics Office do everything in their power to get as accurate an estimate as is possible, but I admit it is not possible to be positive about the figure quoted. It is as near as can be assessed given the circumstances.
After this supplementary we must move to the questions to the Minister for the Gaeltacht. I will allow Deputy Brennan a short supplementary question.
Is the Minister of State now aware that the Central Statistics Office estimate is 14,000 while the figure in the national plan is 5,000 to 10,000? Further, is he not aware that the labour force survey estimates in respect of outflows from 1986 to 1991 are 15,000 per annum? Is the Minister of State not aware of those official statistics which are on the record? Therefore, the figures in the national plan and which underlie the whole plan are grossly underestimated.
(Dún Laoghaire): The Deputy appears to be worried about the figures in the national plan. It would improve the situation for the Government if there was a higher emigration figure than what is quoted——
How does a higher emigration figure improve the situation?
(Dún Laoghaire): The Government took a figure of 7,000 to 7,500. The Deputy is saying now that because it is 15,000 we are worse off. That is not the case. The Deputy is saying that the estimate for this year is 14,000. He can pick whatever figure he likes. I am saying that the figures I have produced here are a fair estimate of the net migration figure. I do not accept that the Deputy should pick just one year and say that everything else is out of line.
Nearly twice as many people are emigrating.
In fairness I must now move to the questions addressed to the Minister for the Gaeltacht. Níl ach 17 nóiméad againn do cheisteanna d'Aire na Gaeltachta.