Dáil Éireann díospóireacht -
Thursday, 18 Apr 1991

Vol. 407 No. 2

Written Answers. - Unemployment Levels.

Pat Rabbitte

Ceist:

42 Mr. Rabbitte asked the Minister for Finance if he will outline the implications for budgetary policy of the higher than forecast levels of unemployment for the first three months of this year, especially if this trend was to be maintained; and if he will make a statement on the matter.

Minister for Finance (Mr. A. Reynolds)

I would refer the Deputy to my press statement which accompanied the issue of the end-quarter Exchequer returns on 3 April last. I pointed out then that higher than anticipated numbers on the live register could give rise to an excess on the Social Welfare Vote for the year as a whole.

The budget estimate for the average numbers on the live register this year was 228,000. The seasonally adjusted average over the first three months is about 9,500 ahead of this annual figure.

I would stress that the unfavourable trend in unemployment so far this year appears to be related in large measure to migration trends — influenced by the UK recession, in particular. There is nothing to suggest that it points to any shortfall in our domestic employment projections. This view is borne out by both income tax and PRSI revenues to date, which are well in line with expectations.

While any deterioration in the projected level of unemployment is obviously a matter of concern to the Government, the overall budgetary position should not be seriously affected. The Government will continue to monitor the various components of the budget very closely, and any necessary action will be taken in the light of developments as the year unfolds.