Dáil Éireann díospóireacht -
Tuesday, 3 Nov 1998

Vol. 495 No. 7

Written Answers. - School Enrolments.

Richard Bruton

Ceist:

729 Mr. R. Bruton asked the Minister for Education and Science his estimates of the demographic dividend of teachers released for reassignment at primary level and second level in each of the next five years based on projected pupil numbers at primary level and at secondary levels. [21601/98]

Minister for Education and Science (Mr. Martin)

The projected enrolments at primary and second level for the years 1998-99 to 2002-3 are as follows:

Year	Primary Enrolment	Second Level Enrolment
1998-99	447,800	363,900
1999-00	436,600	358,100
2000-01	428,700	353,500
2001-02	425,600	348,200
2002-03	424,300	344,900

The estimate of the demographic dividend likely to emerge as a consequence of declining enrolments at both sectors is dependent on a broad range of variables. These variables are subject to considerable fluctuation. The actual dividend is determined following a close scrutiny of every single school's actual enrolment. In the circumstances, I consider that accurately estimating the demographic dividend is difficult at this stage.