Vol. 576 No. 5
404 Mr. J. Bruton asked the Minister for the Environment Heritage and Local Government if his attention has been drawn to a report (details supplied) suggesting that the costs of implementing the Kyoto Protocol will substantially exceed its benefits; if he has commissioned studies on this matter; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [29650/03]
I am not aware of the unreferenced study referred to in the report provided. The authoritative statement of the impacts of climate change, including the costs of climate change and of not taking action to mitigate emissions, and the costs of the associated adaptation requirements, is the 2001 Third Assessment Report, TAR, of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The synthesis for policy makers states that projected climate change will have beneficial and adverse effects on both environmental and socio-economic systems, but the larger the changes and rate of change in climate, the more the adverse effects predominate – IPCC Synthesis Report (2001), Q3.15 page 9.
It also finds that the cost estimates for countries with Kyoto targets to implement the Kyoto Protocol vary between studies and regions, and depend strongly, among others things, upon the assumptions regarding the use of the Kyoto mechanisms, and their interactions with domestic measures. All studies show that costs are reduced for parties, generally, with the use of emissions trading. The report states that with full emissions trading, the estimated GDP reductions in the year 2010 are between 0.1 and 1.1% of projected GDP. It points out that at the time of these studies, most models did not include sinks, non-CO2 greenhouse gases, the clean development mechanism, negative cost options, ancillary benefits, or targeted revenue recycling, the inclusion of which will reduce estimated costs. On the other hand, these models make assumptions which underestimate costs because they assume full use of emissions trading without transaction costs, both within and among countries with Kyoto targets, that mitigation responses would be perfectly efficient and that economies begin to adjust to the need to meet Kyoto targets between 1990 and 2000 – IPCC Synthesis Report (2001), Q7.17-18 page 25.
I am satisfied that EU and Government policy should continue to be developed in the context of the analysis and advice contained in the TAR, that this report reinforced the necessity for continued action, and that the Kyoto Protocol is only a first step in achieving the necessary global reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to prevent dangerous human-induced interference with global climate systems.
Comprehensive economic and environmental analysis for purposes of the national climate change strategy was undertaken in 1998, through a consultancy study on the limitation and reduction of CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions in Ireland and taking account of the range of available analytical work at national and international levels. The strategy also took account of further economic analysis at a sectoral level, including in particular, for purposes of the Green Paper on Sustainable Energy, 1999. Further consultancy work is currently under way to advise Government on preparations for the commencement of EU wide CO2 emissions trading from 2005. The intention will be to seek to ensure that no sector of the economy is faced with a disproportionate cost for their share of meeting the country's Kyoto target, thereby minimising the impact on national competitiveness.
