I am aware of the report, finalised earlier this year, relating to peaking of world oil production, which was commissioned by the National Energy Technology Laboratory of the US Department of Energy. The purpose of this study was to identify the critical issues surrounding the occurrence and mitigation of global oil production peaking. Understandably, the focus of the report is primarily on the implications of oil peaking for the United States.
With regard to the question as to when global oil production may peak, the report acknowledges that this has been a matter of speculation for more than a century and the question of determining when precisely peaking will occur remains unsettled. It is important to note that when world oil production peaks, large oil reserves will still remain.
Among the conclusions of the report are that oil peaking will create a severe liquid fuels problem for the transportation sector and that the production of large amounts of substitute liquid fuels will be required to mitigate impacts. It notes that such production is feasible with existing technology and that future research is also likely to provide additional mitigation options. The peaking of global oil production presents a risk management problem in that if mitigation efforts are initiated earlier than required they may turn out to be premature if peaking is long delayed. On the other hand, if peaking is imminent, failure to initiate timely mitigation could be extremely damaging. As the report recognises, the most effective action to combat the peaking of world oil production requires a better understanding of the clear signals as to when peaking might occur, an understanding that can be improved through accelerated, in-depth public and private research on oil peaking mitigation options.
While I have undertaken no specific analysis into the area of peaking of world oil production, Ireland supports and has access to this type of research through its membership of the International Energy Agency, IEA, and the European Union. Reliance on oil must however, be substituted over time if world economic development and living standards are to be sustained. Government policy on the sustainable use of energy is directed through Sustainable Energy Ireland and that body has commenced a challenging work programme focusing on deployment of energy efficiency measures across all sectors of the economy. In addition, my Department is developing a policy to promote the increased penetration of biofuels in Ireland's transport chain. As part of this policy, a pilot scheme for mineral oil tax relief for biofuels was launched in April 2005. Applications under the scheme are being assessed with a view to making a recommendation to the Department of Finance shortly. The scheme is an initial measure designed to stimulate market development.