The most recent fiscal forecasts were contained in the Stability Programme Update published in April. The forecast for 2015 is predicated on a consolidation package of €2.0bn which has been well flagged over recent years and represents no change in stated Government policy. This is estimated to deliver a general government deficit of 2.9% of GDP.
However, as the Deputy notes, this forecast doesn't take into account the recently revised estimates of GDP by the Central Statistics Office. This will be taken into account along with the most up-to-date macroeconomic and fiscal data when deciding on the adjustment package necessary closer to Budget time.
Furthermore, it is the standard practice for the Minister for Finance to review all taxation policy in the run up to the annual Budget. During this review, proposed budget measures and any potential secondary impacts on the economy will be examined. The combination of this review of taxation policy and the latest fiscal and macroeconomic data will provide the framework for budgetary decisions with the objective of implementing measures that encourage economic growth while correcting the excessive deficit.
I am not prepared to be drawn into speculation on budgetary matters at this time, whether related to the size of the budgetary adjustment required or individual measures that may make up part of the budgetary package.
