Dáil Éireann Debate, Wednesday - 22 March 2023
98. Deputy Patrick Costello asked the Minister for Finance the estimated revenue that would be raised if the carbon tax was doubled and the 2030 levy target was doubled to €200 per tonne; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [14078/23]
Amharc ar fhreagraThe most recent projection of additional carbon tax revenues provided by my Department for the period 2021 to 2030 amounted to €9.2 billion, based on the Government’s commitment to increasing the amount that is charged per tonne of CO2 emissions from fuels to €100 by 2030. This is a key pillar underpinning the Government’s Climate Action Plan ambitions to halve emissions by 2030 and reach net zero no later than 2050.
These projections for carbon tax receipts are based on a declining carbon tax base reflecting changing behaviour in response to the tax, amongst other factors. These estimates were based upon official projections from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published, in June 2021 which represented an independent assessment of Ireland’s emissions trajectory to 2030. Specifically the estimates are based on the EPA’s non-ETS (EU Emissions Trading System) ‘WAM’, or with additional measures scenario for greenhouse gas emissions, which includes the Government’s commitment to a €100 per tonne carbon tax by 2030. The EPA is working on revised projections and the Department will carry out further analysis on projected carbon tax revenue on this basis.
For straight line estimates on tax rate increases Revenue’s Ready Reckoner includes estimates for the yield from changes in duties on Carbon Tax on page 23. The Ready Reckoner is available at:
www.revenue.ie/en/corporate/information-about-revenue/statistics/ready-reckoner/index.aspx .
Where the cost of specific increases proposed are not displayed in the Ready Reckoner, they can be estimated on a straight-line or pro-rata basis from the costs shown.
I am advised by Revenue that the estimates in the Ready Reckoner are prepared on the assumption of no behavioural change in response to a change in the tax. The Revenue estimates are based on the regular volumes for each commodity expected in a normal year and are inclusive of VAT.
